Coronavirus

[Doggydogworld]

It's safe to take Korean stats as a mature dataset at this point, right? They've been stable for more than a week and it's safe to say deaths have caught up to cases making the 1.24% mortality rate reliable. These guys tested more broadly and thoroughly than anyone by far.

I prefer the 2 week lag rate of 1.5%, but otherwise I agree it's the best data set we have.

Now....in a country of 51M people, do we honestly think only 8,961 people have contracted cv? Step back and take a look at Korea's 111 total deaths and tell me the true mortality rate of this thing won't be .2% or lower when all is said and done.

What makes your 55k cases assumption any more "honest" than the 8,961 actually measured? Do you have any data, or is this just a gut feel?

I'm open to your theory, but I can't make the numbers work. Korea has added no real social distancing measures since late January. If they truly have 5 undetected cases for every known case, and those are in the wild doubling every 6 days as COVID does without lockdowns, why aren't their hospitalizations and deaths climbing? As you say, their numbers have stabilized. There's nothing stable about ~50k undetected cases multiplying like rabbits.

Doctors are estimating 40+% of people will contract this virus(similar to the 20-30% that got SARS). If that's even remotely close to true and mortality is over 1%, why are there only 111 deaths in Korea?

The 40% (and other 60-80%) estimates are based on uncontrolled spread. Korea has tested almost 1% of their population. They quarantine all positives and obsessively trace all known contacts, testing them whether they show symptoms or not. Anyone in the general public who thinks they might have it can get tested, even if they have no travel history or whatever. I'm sure they miss some cases. But with extensive contact tracing, even using cell phone location data to notify people who were near you, I'm confident they get almost all of them. The data and curves support that.

I'll keep in mind that I don't want to crash my mountain bike or crash my car over the next couple months. Could be a grim outlook.

Lockdowns reduce hospital load due to car wrecks, regular flu (still in season for a bit longer), bar fights and skiing/mountain bike/etc. accidents. This frees up room for COVID patients.

 

[Beltsbear]

To give some examples, Finland has closed down all public spaces such as libraries, gyms and all schools and forbidden gatherings of more than 10 people. All non-emergency cases to doctors have been cancelled. Dentists are only allowed to operate on urgent patients. Movement of seniors outside of their homes is discouraged. And so on. This has killed normal life and instilled even more fear in people, resulting in secondary effects that are going to bankrupt restaurants and other small businesses. We are even contemplating limiting movement inside Finland.

For comparison, Sweden limits public gatherings to 500 people. Public places remain open. Elementary schools and day care centers are allowed to operate, apparently high schools and universities are also allowed to operate but remote teaching is encouraged. Seniors are encouraged to move outside but to try to keep 1 meter distance to other people.

There has been one confirmed death due to coronavirus in Finland. Sweden will be over with this by the time we will continue destroying our economy in the subsequent waves. For what?

Unless Sweden has some secret, they will lose 1-2% of their population. And it will still take until fall, with overloaded hospitals starting in 3-4 weeks. I don't know what the solution is, but full on herd immunity is not a good one.

 

[Compton]

Unless Sweden has some secret, they will lose 1-2% of their population. And it will still take until fall, with overloaded hospitals starting in 3-4 weeks. I don't know what the solution is, but full on herd immunity is not a good one.

That's absurd and you'll see it after a few months. Please get back to me with a private message so we can compare notes in e.g. August. I'll be right and you'll be so, so wrong.

 

[sparcs]

There has been one confirmed death due to coronavirus in Finland. Sweden will be over with this by the time we will continue destroying our economy in the subsequent waves. For what?

i think Sweden is about to cave from the overwhelming number of cases. They're doing the math and I bet their hospital systems are going to be bombarded.

Bloomberg: Sweden Prime Minister Says Prepare for More Restrictive Policies

The prime minister there is "pleading with citizens to act to limit the spread of the coronavirus." That's a bad sign.

 

[Daniel in SD]

You got me, I give up Please do nuke your economy to the fullest extent possible.

If you give up then the virus wins!

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

There has been one confirmed death due to coronavirus in Finland. Sweden will be over with this by the time we will continue destroying our economy in the subsequent waves. For what?

That's absurd and you'll see it after a few months. Please get back to me with a private message so we can compare notes in e.g. August. I'll be right and you'll be so, so wrong.

Why don't we all just check in publicly here in two weeks to see how things are going?

 

[Compton]

i think Sweden is about to cave from the overwhelming number of cases. They're doing the math and I bet their hospital systems are going to be bombarded.

Bloomberg: Sweden Prime Minister Says Prepare for More Restrictive Policies

The prime minister there is begging people to stay at home. That's a bad sign.

Why don't we all just check in publicly here in two weeks to see how things are going?

He said 1-2% of the population. It will take a while to know the final count and it won't be anywhere near that range

 

[jerry33]

Why don't we all just check in publicly here in two weeks to see how things are going?

How else would we fill in the time till then?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

DeSantis with the winning Florida strategy. It's kind of like Trump's proven strategy.

'DeSantis said Florida is doing what it can, though he has not given a statewide stay-at-home order, despite calls from some legislators to do so. He said nothing he does will help control the spread of the coronavirus “if people from these hot spots keep pouring into our state.”

“It’s a big problem,” DeSantis said at a Monday afternoon news conference. “A week ago, they had 20 flights down here. As soon as that shelter-in-place order came down from the New York governor, the flights took off, and people just got the heck out of Dodge, so we’re ending up having to deal with it.”'

Deflect, deflect, deflect. To be clear I'd be fine with this strategy, if it were paired with a hard lockdown. I actually think California and Washington should be doing the same mandatory quarantine.

 

[pjferr]

This is not good news for New York City from a modeling perspective of the ICU's being overwhelmed. Dr. Peter Attia is not an epidemiologist but he is a brilliant guy who I have been following for years. He has a private practice in New York City with a focus on Health Span for wealthy clients. He has a team of brilliant researchers that work for him so I believe his numbers. Interesting to see his analogy to cars approaching a cliff and how many of the other US Cities are faring better in the modeling thus far.

 

[ZeApelido]

Amazing

Keaton Patti on Twitter

 

[Compton]

i think Sweden is about to cave from the overwhelming number of cases. They're doing the math and I bet their hospital systems are going to be bombarded.

Bloomberg: Sweden Prime Minister Says Prepare for More Restrictive Policies

The prime minister there is begging people to stay at home. That's a bad sign.

Oh really? I just read the original speech in Swedish and couldn't find that. It's below if you want to point me the right paragraph instead of poorly quoting secondary sources.

Här är statsminister Stefan Löfvens tal till nationen – ord för ord

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

He said 1-2% of the population. It will take a while to know the final count and it won't be anywhere near that range

I agree, it probably wouldn't exceed 0.5% of the population, though pretty sure it would be close to that %. No biggie. Obviously that 0.5% would presume an intact healthcare system throughout which is questionable.

 

[Compton]

I agree, it probably wouldn't exceed 0.5% of the population, though pretty sure it would be close to that %. No biggie.

Please get back to me in August so we can revisit your 0.5%

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Please get back to me in August so we can revisit your 0.5%

Sure, will do, but I win if Sweden changes their strategy.

 

[Compton]

Sure, will do, but I win if Sweden changes their strategy.

Not if the consensus is that overall mortality is less than 0.5%. Then you would be wrong even if entire population was infected. For instance Germany with a relatively high testing rate is reporting 0.3% mortality. But the rate will drop further when truly asymptomatic carriers are included.

Germany's low coronavirus mortality rate intrigues experts

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

You got me, I give up Please do nuke your economy to the fullest extent possible.

You can't cure panic.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Not if the consensus is that overall mortality is less than 0.5%. Then you would be wrong even if 100% of the population was infected. For instance Germany with a relatively high testing rate is reporting 0.3% mortality. But the rate will drop further when truly asymptomatic carriers are included.

Germany's low coronavirus mortality rate intrigues experts

Again, check back in two weeks. Germany's mortality rate will sadly climb, likely to around 1% - just like every single other country has. It is true that Germany may end up being one of the best proxies for actual fatality rate, assuming they keep up their massive testing effort. Fairly confident CFR will be substantially above 0.5%.

Obviously if a good therapy is discovered, or a vaccine, that would change everything. But not aware of anything yet.

 

[Cosmacelf]

There is a lot of opinion and arguments going on back and forth here. Do people find that useful?

Hopefully we can add more information to this thread, like what @KarenRei used to post. I miss her, and that's not a creepy statement at all.

Anyways, here's a WSJ article talking about hydroxychloroquine and how it seems to be working. Opinion | These Drugs Are Helping Our Coronavirus Patients

First person account of a patient who thought he wouldn't last the night when he was finally given intravenous hydroxychloroquine and it appeared to save his life: A man with coronavirus who works in LA says the drug used to treat malaria saved his life

Another first person account from actor Daniel Dae Kim who credits hydroxychloroquine (specific part starts at 2:36): Daniel Dae Kim on Instagram: “Including the medicines that helped me recover. Check out @cdcgov, @paulysong and @nextshark for more on the issues I reference above.…”

 

[Compton]

Again, check back in two weeks. Germany's mortality rate will sadly climb, likely to around 1% - just like every single other country has. It is true that Germany may end up being one of the best proxies for actual fatality rate, assuming they keep up their massive testing effort. Fairly confident CFR will be substantially above 0.5%.

"Drosten, who has been advising the German health ministry, has also warned that Germany’s mortality rate is likely to rise in the coming weeks as high-risk areas become harder to identify and testing capacity becomes stretched.

“It will appear that the virus has become more dangerous, but this will be a statistical artefact, a distortion. It will simply reflect what’s already starting to happen: we’re missing more and more infections.”