DanCar
Active Member
Why 50-100M if population 330M? Agree, current trend is to nearly infect everyone. Suspect the less than 1/3rd infected is because the non thorough quarantine will have some affect.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I'm sure this lockdown has flattened the curve to a small degree, but the spread is in full swing now and it will get everywhere. Counting 80k "cases" when we know 500k to millions are already infected is pointless.
People have been testing positive all over Pennsylvania, plenty of people who've been on relative lockdowns in places like nursing homes. It's everywhere and will kill .03-.15%(just guessing obviously) of those eventually infected, hopefully infections are on the low end and so is mortality.
We sure love rolling the dice in this country!
Climate change? No big deal.
Brand new virus? F*** testing!
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
EVNow
Well-Known Member
This is a very insightful article on what testing is actually needed to help manage the pandemic. Retweeted by Marc Lipsitch.
We need testing to be done in a surveillance framework that lets us interpret trends -excellent points from Zeke Emanuel and @Farzad_MD
We need smart coronavirus testing, not just more testing - STAT
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Back at the beginning I think CDC estimated 160M are possible in the US, I'm assuming they were over-reacting and that spread can't be contained from here.
Norbert
TSLA will win
EVNow
Well-Known Member
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Keep the infected masses out of Canada. Perhaps Trudeau could ask trump for a wall ?
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
You're more pessimistic than me. At this moment, I suspect no more than 350k cumulative cases in the US.
But it's not pointless if you actually lock those uncounted ~200k cases in place for a couple weeks. It really helps! And it preserves most of the population so that we can keep our food supply intact. (There should be regular testing available during the shutdown to those who are on the frontlines or serving the public so that spread can be prevented in those populations.)
There's literally no evidence for this number you keep speaking of.
Saw this interesting stat from LizSly on Twitter:
'The world is "not winning" the coronavirus battle. It took 2 months for the first 100,000 cases, 12 days for the next 100,000, 4 days for the 3rd & 1.5 for the 4th. "This is exponential growth" - UN chief Guterres to the G20 today.'
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Which numbers? Is the claim that it's still spreading uncontrolled? Or that the the total case number is way too low? That is almost certainly true since people were locked in their homes and probably didn't want to come out unless they got extremely sick.
... with the exception of Fox News, of course.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
I'm still waiting for to say where you got your SARS fatality rate! Maybe that would help us understand how you're coming up with what appears to be an impossibly low number for SARS-Cov-2.
linux-works
Active Member
Coronavirus Heroes Are Getting Tossed From Their Homes by Scared Landlords
Anna Jones* had just finished her shift at St. Rose Hospital in Las Vegas, where she works as an emergency-room nurse, when she received an email from her landlord labeled “Quick Action Needed.” Her landlord—a quiet, older woman who lived downstairs from Jones and her husband—informed her that she would need to vacate the premises within 24 hours. The reason, she said, was COVID-19.
“I don’t want interaction or debate over this decision,” the landlord wrote in emails reviewed by The Daily Beast. “I’m sorry for the abrupt notice, but given the situation, it’s the choice I’m making to protect myself.”
“Honestly, it’s devastating,” Jones told The Daily Beast this week. “I was just really heartbroken and just felt like, ‘How could somebody treat me like this, all because I’m a nurse?’”
Anna Jones* had just finished her shift at St. Rose Hospital in Las Vegas, where she works as an emergency-room nurse, when she received an email from her landlord labeled “Quick Action Needed.” Her landlord—a quiet, older woman who lived downstairs from Jones and her husband—informed her that she would need to vacate the premises within 24 hours. The reason, she said, was COVID-19.
“I don’t want interaction or debate over this decision,” the landlord wrote in emails reviewed by The Daily Beast. “I’m sorry for the abrupt notice, but given the situation, it’s the choice I’m making to protect myself.”
“Honestly, it’s devastating,” Jones told The Daily Beast this week. “I was just really heartbroken and just felt like, ‘How could somebody treat me like this, all because I’m a nurse?’”
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Total case number is too low, and that it is still spreading faster than the officially reported numbers.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
I actually believe they have it under control. What would be the motivation for falsely claiming that? Didn't they try that early on in the outbreak and it didn't work out very well? There would be no way for them to hide it if it was spreading exponentially throughout China.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Just 400 below China. May be WA numbers will put US over the top - weird how it works.
ps : 7 states with 500+ new cases today. NY, NJ, IL, MI, MA, PA, LA. Missing from the list - early hot spots of WA & CA - who instituted lockdowns sooner.
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HG Wells
Martian Embassy
Well, Fearless Leader can now loudly proclaim he made us number ONE !
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
How do explain that there have been 4,860 deaths in the Lombardy region of Italy which has a population of 10 million?
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