TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Dealing with? This time next year it will still be unprecedented.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
It would be good if they plotted epidemiological curves for their data, like Washington State now does. Much less confusing. Plotted vs onset of symptoms. Also they have plots vs. sample collection date.
MXLRplus
Active Member
As long as anyone believes this is a political problem we cannot attenuate it. The stock market manipulation is a political problem as is the criminal profiteering by sociopaths. You might notice little is being done in those areas. You personally can do nothing to alleviate those legal issues. You can help reduce the infection rate in your community though.
‘In addition Fauci apparently believes Summer will help. This is great, great news!
My concerns are:
1) How well will the country be prepared for Fall when it returns.
2) Why is it so bad in South Fl. and New Orleans considering it has been very warm for weeks?
The Coronavirus Will Return In The Fall, Fauci Predicts, But The U.S. Will Be Better Prepared
Norbert
TSLA will win
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Norbert
TSLA will win
I just noticed that Florida moved up in the list sorted by total cases, now #6. California is #3.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Another completely preventable outcome:
https://twitter.com/davidlarter/status/1244975396619198465?s=21
David B. Larter on Twitter
I believe that the party line a month ago was “Our military is composed of strong healthy guys so this is going to be no big deal.” I’m paraphrasing but that was definitely the quote.
Anyway, this was completely preventable - they had two months to lock down!
I’ve always thought the current administration (and their party) was super weak on national defense and national security, Historically that has certainly always been the case - always have been very weak on defense & security (not news to anyone I am sure). Looking like that continues to hold true.
Oh well.
https://twitter.com/davidlarter/status/1244975396619198465?s=21
David B. Larter on Twitter
I believe that the party line a month ago was “Our military is composed of strong healthy guys so this is going to be no big deal.” I’m paraphrasing but that was definitely the quote.
Anyway, this was completely preventable - they had two months to lock down!
I’ve always thought the current administration (and their party) was super weak on national defense and national security, Historically that has certainly always been the case - always have been very weak on defense & security (not news to anyone I am sure). Looking like that continues to hold true.
Oh well.
1) Great question. Since we're still bumbling around in the US and Europe, a little reprieve in the summer could provide time to get in place better testing, protocols for use of masks and other protective gear (and time to ramp up supply), etc.
The authors of the paper put it this way: "In the coming warmer months, rising temperatures are likely to lower overall transmission, making large-scale public health interventions that limit contact amongst individuals, such as shelter-in-place policies and school closings, more effective at achieving and maintaining low overall case rates. However, if such measures are not taken and moderate baseline levels of transmission persist through the summer, cooler fall and winter months could imply a substantial resurgence of new cases (Fig.2 and 3). Getting the most from these policies during this summer period is critical if northern countries want to eliminate COVID-19, rather than experience a second, possibly stronger, second wave of the virus when temperatures fall during the winter of 2021. History hints at the importance of taking advantage of this window of opportunity: the second wave of the 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic had much higher mortality rates than the first."
2) Assuming this analysis is correct, the southern cities that are hard hit would have been even worse off in cooler weather. Not hard to believe in places like New Orleans and South Florida given the social atmosphere and lack of restrictions (until recently).
But the experience of New Orleans and South Florida do help emphasize that even if this study is accurate warmer weather is not a panacea -- it might help support social distancing efforts but by itself isn't going to stop the virus.
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SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Hospital bed capacity is poorly understood in this thread so here is an overview:
Each state reports total beds. That is a mixture of 'acute care' beds and 'non acute care' composed of long term care and rehab
As a gross measure, 10% of total beds are non-acute care type
As a gross measures, hospitals build to be 90% occupied in normal times
As a gross measure, 10% of acute care beds are 'ICU' level which kinda sorta means more nurses and ability to treat with a ventilator
Example:
NYS starts out with 100k beds,
So 90k acute care beds
So 9k non-occupied beds
So 900 non-occupied ICU beds
In terms of Covid, this type of analysis will lead to a significant under-estimation of bed resources for two reasons:
1. Elective admissions stop. Perhaps that is a 2x increase
2. Hospitals will adapt and stuff. Perhaps that is a 1.5 - 2x increase
Continuation of example, in the Covid era:
NYS might be able to cover 900*2*1.5 = ~ 3000 ICU level Covid cases
Each state reports total beds. That is a mixture of 'acute care' beds and 'non acute care' composed of long term care and rehab
As a gross measure, 10% of total beds are non-acute care type
As a gross measures, hospitals build to be 90% occupied in normal times
As a gross measure, 10% of acute care beds are 'ICU' level which kinda sorta means more nurses and ability to treat with a ventilator
Example:
NYS starts out with 100k beds,
So 90k acute care beds
So 9k non-occupied beds
So 900 non-occupied ICU beds
In terms of Covid, this type of analysis will lead to a significant under-estimation of bed resources for two reasons:
1. Elective admissions stop. Perhaps that is a 2x increase
2. Hospitals will adapt and stuff. Perhaps that is a 1.5 - 2x increase
Continuation of example, in the Covid era:
NYS might be able to cover 900*2*1.5 = ~ 3000 ICU level Covid cases
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SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I was mulling over public understanding of the covid epidemic and decided to split people into 4 groups:
Trump level stupidity. If they pay attention at all, they see the daily number of cases.
Able to manipulate a line
Able to manipulate a curve
Able to build complex models (applied math and above level university studies
This thread is heavily weighted towards people who like playing with numbers. I've read all the posts here (except for my NULL pile) and suggest:
100% line level
25-50% curve level
~ 2 modelers, who have left or been driven out
Population:
50% trumpers
40% line level
10% curve level
1/10,000 modelers
Trump level stupidity. If they pay attention at all, they see the daily number of cases.
Able to manipulate a line
Able to manipulate a curve
Able to build complex models (applied math and above level university studies
This thread is heavily weighted towards people who like playing with numbers. I've read all the posts here (except for my NULL pile) and suggest:
100% line level
25-50% curve level
~ 2 modelers, who have left or been driven out
Population:
50% trumpers
40% line level
10% curve level
1/10,000 modelers
MXLRplus
Active Member
Over 1.3 million active military, not including reserve, with global deployment.
3 shifts, hot cot, on warships. Must be able to defend against attack 24/7/365. Need to resupply food and jet fuel.
The last POTUS received a Peace Prize for his attacks on countries that the US had no quarrel with. Not a good look.
Dr. J
Active Member
And now we've established a bad precedent. It could have easily gone the other way.
Regarding ICU bed numbers for New York. I read or heard on the news a health care worker stating that ventilators were in use outside the formal ICU. And when they had a ventilator to a regular bed you have an ICU bed. Makes sense of the increase.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Georgia may be a bellwether state for the whole US. We don't get much national media attention, but the situation is not good.
Note that the population of GA is 10.7 million, NY is 20.5 million, and California 40 million.
As of yesterday, Georgia has 102 covid19 deaths, 9.5 DPM. This is comparable to the national figure of 3165 deaths, 9.6 DPM.
California gets much more attention than Georgia, but it is doing much better fighting this virus. Yesterday, California was at 145 deaths, 3.6 DPM.
What's different? California has had aggressive Stay-at-home policy; Georgia has closed public schools, but there is no Stay-at-home. California does a lot of testing. Georgia is rationing testing to the critically ill.
Georgia had 3032 confirmed cases, which compared to 102 deaths is a naïve CFR of 3.4%.
California had 7248 confirmed cases, which compared to 145 deaths is a naïve CFR of 2.0%.
The media is paying much more attention to larger states with higher confirmed case counts than they are to states that have elevated death rates (Deaths Per Million). One problem with the DPM going over 10 in a state like Georgia is that our health care system is reaching capacity. At some point in the next 10 to 20 days as DPM climbs to 100 or more, we will have system overload. Things can get just as ugly as they have been in NYC or Italy.
I have no expectation that there will be a ventilator available when I need one. As I'm prone to lung infections anytime I get a simple cold, my best hope is never to catch this crap. And yet our shithole governor won't shut down the state.
Stay at home. Don't worry about the economy or Tesla. I have no doubt that in time the economy will recover briskly and Tesla will surge ahead of all other automakers. I just wish more of us could live to see it.
Note that the population of GA is 10.7 million, NY is 20.5 million, and California 40 million.
As of yesterday, Georgia has 102 covid19 deaths, 9.5 DPM. This is comparable to the national figure of 3165 deaths, 9.6 DPM.
California gets much more attention than Georgia, but it is doing much better fighting this virus. Yesterday, California was at 145 deaths, 3.6 DPM.
What's different? California has had aggressive Stay-at-home policy; Georgia has closed public schools, but there is no Stay-at-home. California does a lot of testing. Georgia is rationing testing to the critically ill.
Georgia had 3032 confirmed cases, which compared to 102 deaths is a naïve CFR of 3.4%.
California had 7248 confirmed cases, which compared to 145 deaths is a naïve CFR of 2.0%.
The media is paying much more attention to larger states with higher confirmed case counts than they are to states that have elevated death rates (Deaths Per Million). One problem with the DPM going over 10 in a state like Georgia is that our health care system is reaching capacity. At some point in the next 10 to 20 days as DPM climbs to 100 or more, we will have system overload. Things can get just as ugly as they have been in NYC or Italy.
I have no expectation that there will be a ventilator available when I need one. As I'm prone to lung infections anytime I get a simple cold, my best hope is never to catch this crap. And yet our shithole governor won't shut down the state.
Stay at home. Don't worry about the economy or Tesla. I have no doubt that in time the economy will recover briskly and Tesla will surge ahead of all other automakers. I just wish more of us could live to see it.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I've come to similar conclusions to your post.
'Naive CFR' is a good description for a couple of reasons but in this context it emphasizes the lack of correction for when the epidemic started in each state.
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Dr. J
Active Member
The Navy seems particularly vulnerable--similar to cruise ships, I suppose.
An outbreak on a Navy warship — and an ominous sign of a readiness crisis
The dearth of leadership from the top appears to be magnified down the chain of command:
As the bad news has stacked up for the Navy and the military at large, service members from across the military say they’ve seen little from their commands that lead them to believe that Defense Department is taking the virus seriously.
Service members and spouses from across the force have told Military Times the military leadership has seemed blindsided and unsure in the face of the largest public health crisis in generations. While the commander in chief last week told Americans not to gather in groups of more than 10, military training commands and their service members continued to be packed into classrooms and to march in close formations.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Another thing I was curious about is the correlation between IgG and IgM. If the test is 80% effective at detecting IgG and 80% effective at detecting IgM does that mean it's 96% effective or is it much closer to 80%?
LiveLong&Profit
Member
Thank you for this concrete evidence.
My post was a mere interpretation/translation.
Numbers were not supplied in the press briefing so I cannot vouch re. the veracity. Just translation/interpretation of news conference (in danish). Sorry if this was not clear.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Not likely. IgM and IgG would use the same epitope (surface protein binding site) to attached SARS-CoV-2. So the IgM/IgG test would likely follow a similar principle and be directed to detect a common, but unique to the virus, protein epitope.
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