Coronavirus

[MXLRplus]

I needed a computer fan, went to Newegg, wasn't offered the masks at checkout. It may have a minimum purchase to get the offer.

I needed a case which was $60 when I noticed it.
They might also be out of stock already.
It was worth a try.

 

[dhanson865]

Nice charts. One thing that is striking here is just how extensive the geographical coverage is. Just about every county has 1 or more cases. There is no place you can go without risk of exposure.

So true, especially since testing here is almost non existent. To have even one case in the county gives every expectation that you have multiple cases that are undetected.

My home county went from 1 case sitting flat for a along time to 9 to 20 something in two days, and the number didn't stop moving once it got of the bottom of the chart. It's at 52 in that image and likely much higher by the time I posted this reply.

 

[Norbert]

Avg time from symptom to death : 17

What is your source for this number? (I'm not asking because I would doubt it, but because I'd be interested to know more about it.)

Total # of fatalities in US : 3,889

Total # of confirmed cases in US on 3/14/20 : 2,770

So, 17 days back most of the fatalities were not even confirmed cases. In this context obviously CFR makes little sense.

Yes, although I would normally use 14 days. Except in the case of current US numbers, that is difficult as well. The alternative would be to extrapolate the reported number of deaths, but I don't take the growth rate, or its change, as sufficiently constant between now and then.

 

[Norbert]

So true, especially since testing here is almost non existent. To have even one case in the county gives every expectation that you have multiple cases that are undetected.

My home county went from 1 case sitting flat for a along time to 9 to 20 something in two days, and the number didn't stop moving once it got of the bottom of the chart. It's at 52 in that image and likely much higher by the time I posted this reply.

That's really surprising that except for some hot spots, the low numbers are distributed so evenly.

 

[SageBrush]

Can the virus be carried/travel on smoke from someones cigarette?
Smoke travels a lot further than someones normal breath making it harder to avoid.

I like the question -- it should be on the O level physics exam.

Can you jump off Mt Everest and travel further than a similar mountain at sea level ?

 

[EVNow]

What is your source for this number? (I'm not asking because I would doubt it, but because I'd be interested to know more about it.)

Yes, although I would normally use 14 days. Except in the case of current US numbers, that is difficult as well. The alternative would be to extrapolate the reported number of deaths, but I don't take the growth rate, or its change, as sufficiently constant between now and then.

I've to think about it - I've also been using 14, but in the last couple of days I read a new paper or it was mentioned here (may be that chart about typical symptoms of recovering / fatal cases).

 

[Daniel in SD]

Fair enough, but then how do you tally the number of deaths from lack of ventilator (ignore the fact that the majority of people who go on a vent with covid-19 die.)

Isn't that what you'd be trying to model?
You'd have to know survival rates and duration of time on the ventilator. If doctors knew exactly who was going to survive and how long they would be on the ventilator then they could use far fewer ventilators with no additional loss of life. Of course doctors can't know perfectly who will survive so somehow you've got to model that decision making. You could use whatever mechanism they plan on using to rank the people currently being putting on ventilators and use that survival rate vs. rank.
My gut feeling is that it won't make much difference in the number of deaths unless the shortage is severe.
Rightfully, I think, they're trying not to be in that position.

 

[EVNow]

Cool animation - confirmed cases/million population at county level in US over Feb/March. We can see how in March, the cases started spouting all over the map.

Confirmed C19 cases per capita

 

[dhanson865]

In sobering news - both US & France surpassed China's fatalities today. Iran & UK will do so within a week. US might soon become the country with highest daily fatalities overtaking Italy.

France still has a either an abnormally high death rate or an abnormally low infected rate. Either way those numbers look anomalous.

 

[wdolson]

I needed a case which was $60 when I noticed it.
They might also be out of stock already.
It was worth a try.

I also realized I needed a hard drive for a server and found one on a modest discount and free shipping. At check out I was offered the masks, so there is a minimum order level.

Surgical masks don't protect from anything incoming, but they do protect from outgoing. My SO has a use for the surgical masks, so it's worth it.

A week ago I was looking for something in the laundry room closet and found 2 N95 masks I didn't know we had.

 

[Opus BC fan]

I found this blurb in my news feed... it was a dead link to the reported original tweet from EM.

Tesla plans to supply FDA-approved ventilators free of cost: Musk

"Chief Executive Elon Musk said on Tuesday the company has extra FDA-approved ventilators that can be shipped free of cost to hospitals within regions where the electric carmaker delivers." Emphasis mine. I will try to find the tweet.

Edit: Found the tweet on EM's twitter page. 11 hours old. I suspect this was already covered here.

 

[dhanson865]

That's really surprising that except for some hot spots, the low numbers are distributed so evenly.

that's rural living for you, if you could see the population density of the counties with "1" infected it'd look like no one lives there (lots of backwoods, hils, lakes, rivers, not a lot of people).

Essentially those 1s could be collapsed into the larger counties they surround and you could just have blanks for anything that isn't a large county.

So what I'm saying is the 1 person got it in the larger county and likely works in the larger county but officially lives in the smaller county.

 

[linux-works]

so, it has come to this....

 

[Electroman]

In sobering news - both US & France surpassed China's fatalities today. Iran & UK will do so within a week. US might soon become the country with highest daily fatalities overtaking Italy.

Does anyone have a simple explanation why both Beijing and Shanghai which are only about 1000+ Kms away from Wuhan, very densely populated and in the same country, has less than 500 deaths, but NYC and Italy which are what more close to 10k miles away, in a different continent has thousands of deaths?

And don't forget the massive people movement that happened in China during the Chinese New year in January, carrying infections to and from Wuhan to all parts of China. .. yet only 100 deaths or less in Shanghai the economic capital of China?

It simply doesn't make sense.

 

[SageBrush]

Isn't that what you'd be trying to model?

I'm only trying to read the graph correctly. This is New York

I think it is saying that the Covid-19 load will result in 9,055 ventilators needed but ~ 718 are available so there will be 8337 people who reach disease severity of ventilator need but are not given that support.

Do you have a different take ?

 

[Daniel in SD]

France still has a either an abnormally high death rate or an abnormally low infected rate. Either way those numbers look anomalous.

View attachment 528159

Or a testing rate somewhere between Spain and Germany...

 

[cucubits]

Does anyone have a simple explanation why both Beijing and Shanghai which are only about 1000+ Kms away from Wuhan, very densely populated and in the same country, has less than 500 deaths

 

[bkp_duke]

Everyone working on your COVID-19 death predictions should really read this article and hopefully we can all get on the same page. Very well-written, even for the non-medical professionals, solid calculations, and gives us a reasonable estimate of where things are headed if R0 isn't contained further.

Sharing here for those that do not have Medscape access.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I'm only trying to read the graph correctly. This is New York

I think it is saying that the Covid-19 load will result in 9,055 ventilators needed but ~ 718 are available so there will be 8337 people who reach disease severity of ventilator need but are not given that support.

Do you have a different take ?

View attachment 528161

Yeah, they have way more ventilators than that. Gov. Cuomo said they 3,000 on March 27th. Though he says they need 30,000 but I suspect that's a worst case number. It's a good idea to plan for the worst case though! The market for used ventilators will remain strong for a while.

 

[eevee-fan]

I'm only trying to read the graph correctly. This is New York

I think it is saying that the Covid-19 load will result in 9,055 ventilators needed but ~ 718 are available so there will be 8337 people who reach disease severity of ventilator need but are not given that support.

Do you have a different take ?

View attachment 528161

718 is ICU beds open. When push comes to shove, MSU beds will do.

Available ventilators not on the chart.