Coronavirus

[TheTalkingMule]

Thought the NSW (AUS) school report was already in this thread but could not find it so here it is (again).

Overview
• This report provides an overview of investigation into all COVID-19 cases in New South Wales (NSW) schools.
• In NSW, from March to mid-April 2020, 18 individuals (9 students and 9 staff) from 15 schools were confirmed as COVID-19 cases; all of these individuals had an opportunity to transmit the COVID-19 virus (SARS-CoV-2) to others in their schools.
• 735 students and 128 staff were close contacts of these initial 18 cases.
• No teacher or staff member contracted COVID-19 from any of the initial school cases.
• One child from a primary school and one child from a high school may have contracted COVID-19 from the initial cases at their schools.

In other words......the NYC subway is disgusting.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Any idea how this is possible with the relative lack of demand for carbon burning transportation?

I hate to break it to you, but driving an electric car really doesn't help much. (Though, I firmly believe that that does not mean that you shouldn't do it - everyone has to do their part to be aware and support reduction in carbon emissions. Also electric cars are awesome.)

Transport is only 28% of US emissions, and 20% globally.

Looks like this is only going to cut carbon emissions by 5.5% this year, and we need to cut the emissions by 7.6% EVERY year to meet the goals.


The Economy Is at a Standstill, and Yet Carbon Emissions Have Only Dipped Slightly. Why?

Also, added bonus, lack of particulate pollution will likely make things hotter, especially in urban heat islands where there is normally a lot of pollution.

Aren't we still just seeing the up-swing from carbon release from years past? IIRC we could stop 100% carbon usage today, and we would still see it trend further up for several more years.

I don't think so. There is an annual cycle (Keeling Curve), but I don't think human consumption works that way. Of course there could be positive feedback with methane release from permafrost melt, etc.

Anyway, sorry to get this off-topic a bit.

 

[jerry33]

I hate to break it to you, but driving an electric car really doesn't help much. (Though, I firmly believe that that does not mean that you shouldn't do it - everyone has to do a part to be aware and support reduction in carbon emissions.)

Transport is only 28% of US emissions, and 20% globally.

That's true for CO2, but it appears that in the rush to emphasis CO2, we've forgotten about all the other air pollutants--particularly the local ones that cause asthma and other lung problems. Electric cars certainly do help a lot with that.

 

[dfwatt]

They did recognize this issue (see third bullet point below).

"What is affecting the case fatality rate?

• The number of cases detected by testing will vary considerably by country;
• Selection bias can mean those with severe disease are preferentially tested;
• There may be delays between symptoms onset and deaths which can lead to underestimation of the CFR;
• Differences in how deaths are attributed to Coronavirus: dying with the disease (association) is not the same as dying from the disease (causation).

You continue to quote this nonsense idea that there's some easy simple distinction between dying with the disease versus dying from the disease. In someone who has coronary artery disease but who's never had a heart attack who subsequently dies from a heart attack in the context of covid-19 infection because gamma interferon destabilized the plaque do you regard that as a death unrelated to covid-19 or just incidentally related?

Because if your answer to either of those questions is yes you are wrong. You're advancing an argument that's about as lame as the argument about the plate being potentially cracked before you knocked it off the shelf and it broke on the floor. The fact that it may have been cracked before you knocked it onto the floor does not obviate your responsibility.

In that sense, when causes of death are listed in a case like this, covid-19 is considered a legitimate cause of death. A pre-existing (or even unknown) vulnerability to the enormous storm of inflammation unleashed on someone by a novel virus in the context of age-related declines in adaptive immunity does not suggest that the association with covid-19 is some specious, or secondary and ultimately distracting and misleading association. By your nonsense standard every patient with a pre-existing condition could not be listed as a death from covid-19. Stop it. Please stop it.

Please stop posting what is biological and clinical nonsense!

 

[RobStark]

 

[dfwatt]

I hate to break it to you, but driving an electric car really doesn't help much. (Though, I firmly believe that that does not mean that you shouldn't do it - everyone has to do their part to be aware and support reduction in carbon emissions. Also electric cars are awesome.)

Transport is only 28% of US emissions, and 20% globally.

Looks like this is only going to cut carbon emissions by 5.5% this year, and we need to cut the emissions by 7.6% EVERY year to meet the goals.


The Economy Is at a Standstill, and Yet Carbon Emissions Have Only Dipped Slightly. Why?

Also, added bonus, lack of particulate pollution will likely make things hotter, especially in urban heat islands where there is normally a lot of pollution.



I don't think so. There is an annual cycle (Keeling Curve), but I don't think human consumption works that way. Of course there could be positive feedback with methane release from permafrost melt, etc.

Anyway, sorry to get this off-topic a bit.

Hey Alan just to let you know, it's hardly news to me that EVs even if they were widespread only cut carbon emissions by at most 30% or so. People aren't driving now so that 30% should have been knocked down to . . I don't know . . .. a decent fraction of it in the last two or three months and that should make some difference in CO2 concentrations. So in that sense it's still a bit surprising to see an all-time high.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

View attachment 538724

Finally updated the model with a hybrid model.

 

[SMAlset]

From CNN: over 370 positive asymptomatic spreaders at a Missouri pork plant. The company, Triumph Foods, started testing last week and 17% have been positive. Contact tracing has begun.

Missouri coronavirus: More than 370 workers at a pork plant tested positive were asymptomatic - CNN

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

California moving to Stage 2 on Friday:

Retail & Manufacturing and Supply chains will be opened up again.
=> Retail will be pick up only
=> Certain counties that are hotter can pursue their own timelines. They can be more or less aggressive within phase 2. Any differences will be publicized.
=> No part of the state can proceed beyond stage 2.

No offices, restaurants, shopping malls.

Contact Tracing capacity being ramped to 10k additional to add to the existing 3000, using the existing 61 statewide health departments.

Not sure whether this will apply to the Tesla plant or not. I guess technically they are part of retail manufacturing! (But local counties have veto authority over the schedule.)

Tesla stock is whipsawing around, so maybe. Guess Elon's tweets added a little bit of volatility that allowed me to cash in a bit. Wish it weren't for such a crappy reason.

----
Today, less than 1k deaths from COVID Tracking. First in quite some time. (1163 a week ago.)
232k tests, 21k cases, so below 10% positivity. That is really a good trend to be on.

Obviously deaths will rise tomorrow, as usual. But maybe there's some hope we'll be below 750 deaths per day by the end of the month! (Don't expect that though! Even IHME is in agreement with my estimate of above 750 deaths at end of May that I made previously.)

I don't know . . .. a decent fraction of it in the last two or three months and that should make some difference in CO2 concentrations. So in that sense it's still a bit surprising to see an all-time high.

I think it's just not enough. There will likely be a noticeable slowdown this year, just not enough to actually make it a year of progress. (BTW that 418ppm number I quoted earlier may have been due to too much variability at Mauna Loa - but in any case we are near all time highs. If today was not a record, shortly we will reach one - highest annual levels occur in May just before the Northern Hemisphere growing season - there is less land (and vegetation) in the Southern Hemisphere.)

Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases

 

[powertoold]

In that sense, when causes of death are listed in a case like this, covid-19 is considered a legitimate cause of death. A pre-existing (or even unknown) vulnerability to the enormous storm of inflammation unleashed on someone by a novel virus in the context of age-related declines in adaptive immunity does not suggest that the association with covid-19 is some specious, or secondary and ultimately distracting and misleading association. By your nonsense standard every patient with a pre-existing condition could not be listed as a death from covid-19. Stop it. Please stop it.

Sorry, I don't follow this thread closely, but from my understanding and linked article, coronavirus deaths are reported if the patient is covid positive, regardless of "cause of death." ( How deadly is the coronavirus? )

Essentially, if a person is known to be positive (either from outpt testing or while hospitalized), they're counted as a covid-positive death.

 

[dfwatt]

Sorry, I don't follow this thread closely, but from my understanding and linked article, coronavirus deaths are reported if the patient is covid positive, regardless of "cause of death." ( How deadly is the coronavirus? )

Essentially, if a person is known to be positive (either from outpt testing or while hospitalized), they're counted as a covid-positive death.

It's amazing to see the people who are not clinicians and who have had no clinical training making statements about what goes on health care that are just abysmally ignorant. What exactly is a covid-19 positive death? What exactly does that mean?

 

[TEG]

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Documents/frequently-asked-questions-04-29-2020.pdf

...This new Order replaces the March 31 Shelter-in-Place Order as of May 4, 2020. This updated Order requires that most people continue sheltering in their place of residence through May 31, 2020. It allows some businesses to open that could not operate under the March 31 Order and some low-risk activities to resume. ...

 

[powertoold]

It's amazing to see the people who are not clinicians and who have had no clinical training making statements about what goes on health care that are just abysmally ignorant. What exactly is a covid-19 positive death?

All covid-positive patients, regardless of admission diagnosis, are put on a covid-positive ward / floor / etc. If they end up dying, they are reported as a death with covid-positive, regardless of whether the coronavirus directly caused their death. That's what I understand from that BBC article. Is there something wrong with my thought process?

 

[dfwatt]

All covid-positive patients, regardless of admission diagnosis, are put on a covid-positive ward / floor / etc. If they end up dying, they are reported as a death with covid-positive. That's what I understand from that BBC article. Is there something wrong with my thought process?

What's wrong with it is the possible hidden implication that this is an over counting. You appear to be circling back to your previous assertion that many patients with covid-19 are dying from something unrelated to covid-19. I exposed your argument last time and I'd rather not embarrass you a second time. But that means you have to learn from the first experience.

 

[powertoold]

What's wrong with it is the hidden implication that this is an over counting. You appear to be circling back to your previous assertion that many patients with covid-19 are dying from something unrelated to covid-19. I exposed your argument last time and I'd rather not embarrass you a second time. But that means you have to learn from the first experience.

All you do is attack my character or experience or whatnot. Again, is there something wrong with my thought process?

 

[lascavarian]

Well I finally got around to J. Rickard's C-19 video (at 1.75 speed).

TL:TL:TL Jack has been sick, no virus but been tested. Jack says his data analysis supports that it is mostly masks that are effective based on his cultural understandings. He has a LOT of masks.

He also says "testing" is a ruse used by democratic Governors. He doesn't believe in contact tracing because.... no explanation really just inconvenient to believe in it I guess. He is mildly advocating for harsh Gov't action punishing those not wearing masks. Maybe a very very high fine. (it seems to me that that another conclusion could be the cultural norm of greetings - hand shaking vs bowing)

Finally, the real reason it seems for the video is to trash Chris Cuomo and CNN and Dr S. Gupta but you have to get to the end for that. YMMV

 

[TheTalkingMule]

What's wrong with it is the hidden implication that this is an over counting. You appear to be circling back to your previous assertion that many patients with covid-19 are dying from something unrelated to covid-19. I exposed your argument last time and I'd rather not embarrass you a second time. But that means you have to learn from the first experience.

I think he was just asking a question. Certainly any over-counting in this manner is far outpaced by likely massive under-counting from Jan/Feb/Mar.

 

[dfwatt]

All you do is attack my character or experience or whatnot. Again, is there something wrong with my thought process?

I'm not attacking your character. Sorry if it seems that way. I'm attacking your potential implication that there is an overcounting of deaths from covid-19 through the specious argument that comorbidities mean that somebody isn't really dying from covid-19. It's obvious from your many posts that you don't really understand how complex cause of death really is. For example in many deaths from covid-19 pneumonia is lethal. Should pneumonia be the cause of death? This is legitimately an effect of the immune system, along with so-called cytokine release syndrome which often times leads to sepsis and multi-organ failure. Should the immune system be listed as a cause of death?

Causes of death are often intrinsically and deceptively multifactorial. But what started someone down a fatal pathway in all of these instances is a viral infection. That's why it goes to the top of the list. This includes in cases where people have heart attacks where covid-19 is clearly a factor in destabilizing plaque structures, or where people have renal failure where covid-19 is clearly implicated in that as well. So again you just don't get it. Death is almost invariably multifactorial, but that does not mean that we are somehow overcounting death from covid-19

 

[SageBrush]

What's wrong with it is the possible hidden implication that this is an over counting. You appear to be circling back to your previous assertion that many patients with covid-19 are dying from something unrelated to covid-19. I exposed your argument last time and I'd rather not embarrass you a second time. But that means you have to learn from the first experience.

Excess mortality exceeds Covid-19 reported deaths

Along with the other conspiracy theories, this is a trumper tantrum in a teacup.

 

[dfwatt]

Excess mortality exceeds Covid-19 reported deaths

Along with the other conspiracy theories, this is a trumper tantrum in a teacup.

Yes sir it does and by a scary amount frankly. All this suggests that a whole lot of folks are dying from this illness that are not appearing in the official stats until perhaps later after some kind of adjustment in the case fatality rate or the infection fatality rate. But it's part of the evidence that the true IFR is at least 0.8 if not 1.2 or higher. I increasingly think it's a futile exercise to try to chase down a single value because it's always going to depend on the expression of risk factors and the age in your cohort. But I agree with you. This sure as hell ain't the flu.