Coronavirus

[dhanson865]

Fremont Mayor says open up, Alameda County says don't

Statement from Mayor Lily Mei on Tesla

Today, Mayor Lily Mei issued the following statement:

“As the local shelter-in-place order continues without provisions for major manufacturing activity, such as Tesla, to resume, I am growing concerned about the potential implications for our regional economy. We know many essential businesses have proven they can successfully operate using strict safety and social distancing practices. I strongly believe these same practices could be possible for other manufacturing businesses, especially those that are so critical to our employment base. The City encourages the County to engage with our local businesses to come up with acceptable guidelines for re-opening our local economy. As we have done for over a decade, the City is prepared to support Tesla as soon as they are able to resume automobile manufacturing operations and are committed to a thoughtful, balanced approach to this effort that remains safe for our Fremont community.”

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Fremont says do it,

Wait, what? No, she did not say that!

Alameda says don't

I would argue they said “not quite yet, but we are trying to make it work!”

 

[dhanson865]

Wait, what? No, she did not say that!

twitter and reddit reactions are all as though she was saying something positive about Tesla opening up and Alemeda County put out that emergency announcement almost immediately following the Fremont Mayor's post suggesting it's a direct rebuttal.

Mayor of Fremont supports Tesla opening the facotry. : teslainvestorsclub

Fremont’s mayor supporting Elon. Encourages the County to engage with local businesses to come up with acceptable guidelines for re-opening. “The City is prepared to support Tesla as soon as they are able to resume” : teslamotors

so excuse me if I report what I'm seeing elsewhere.

 

[DanCar]

To which I would respond that Hawaii had zero new cases yesterday and COVID19 appears to have been totally eliminated on the island of Kauai. ...

Are they going to see a spike as soon as they turn back on their economy?

 

[Norbert]

Difference: 750x the disease burden in Alameda county, and if you assume a 5x overcount in Shanghai, it is closer to 3750x.

I'm afraid for Elon it is a matter of principle, not of science.

I didn't check your calculation, but since the point was made, regarding the general mortality of CV, that there were zero deaths among Shanghai's 7,000 workers, I made a different one: If you apply NYC's (not Alameda's) current (so far) deaths per population, you get about 17 deaths in a population of 7,000. Someone would argue that they are in lower age group, and someone else would argue that this doesn't prevent them from spreading the disease and having the same effect in consequence in the larger picture.

 

[jerry33]

I would argue they said “not quite yet, but we are trying to make it work!”

More like "And sometime in the nebulous future we will make a plan which we haven't even started working on yet." Pretty much 100% refuting what the city said.

 

[PeterJA]

This is a reposting of a message that was deleted from the main investor thread, apparently because it mentions a treatment for coronavirus.

The US as a whole has been a spectacular failure at organizing a well thought out, well communicated response and action from the very start. This county is totally incompetent.....but the governor is giving them that power to be incompetent. The federal government is giving that governor the power to do that. It's a system wide breakdown from the top to the bottom. Embarrassing to see the US fail so badly compared to Asian countries and now even European countries.

Totally agree, and one way (maybe the primary way) that China has reduced COVID-19 deaths to near-zero has gotten far less publicity than their lockdown: They are preventing and treating COVID-19 with vitamin C, and saving lives of even severely ill patients with high-dose intravenous vitamin C (and the anticoagulant heparin).
Shanghai Government Officially Recommends Vitamin C for COVID-19
TONS OF VITAMIN C TO WUHAN: China Using Vitamin C Against COVID
Vitamin C and Coronavirus: Not a Vaccine; Just a Humble Cure
Protected Group Immunity, Not a Vaccine, is the Way to Stop the COVID-19 Pandemic

A few critical care doctors in the US are also trying to get the word out:
Frontline COVID-19 Critical Care Working Group

But they are hampered by a disinformation campaign such as the following hit-piece (read past the headline and first part of the article to the response by two scientists specializing in vitamin C):
No, the Shanghai government has not recommended intravenous vitamin C as a treatment for COVID-19

My thesis about why this is happening is here:
Coronavirus

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

so excuse me if I report what I'm seeing elsewhere.

Understood.

And sometime in the nebulous future we will make a plan which we haven't even started working on yet.

“directly and working closely with the Tesla team on the ground.”

I see little evidence that there is anything but a good faith effort to reopen the county. The emphasis needs to be on facts and data and models to determine what is safe. I think with certain highly restrictive conditions it would be safe to reopen. But saying “we did this in Shanghai” seems to be patently false. (See calculations above - still need to be cross-checked for accuracy.)

 

[Norbert]

More like "And sometime in the nebulous future we will make a plan which we haven't even started working on yet." Pretty much 100% refuting what the city said.

Unless there are other sources with different info, I would interpret both as saying: Possible, pending an agreement on guidelines/safety plan.

 

[SMAlset]

twitter and reddit reactions are all as though she was saying something positive about Tesla opening up and Alemeda County put out that emergency announcement almost immediately following the Fremont Mayor's post suggesting it's a direct rebuttal.

Mayor of Fremont supports Tesla opening the facotry. : teslainvestorsclub

Fremont’s mayor supporting Elon. Encourages the County to engage with local businesses to come up with acceptable guidelines for re-opening. “The City is prepared to support Tesla as soon as they are able to resume” : teslamotors

so excuse me if I report what I'm seeing elsewhere.

Pretty much the same as Newsom’s briefing and the Health Agency last week. I didn’t read it as the Mayor saying open up, just that they are concerned about their tax dollars and will be there to support Tesla when it can open up. As for the Health Dept statement, pretty much what they said in their release on Friday. We’re trying to work with Tesla...but still not giving the “open” signal yet.

 

[MXLRplus]

In California, people who identify to healthcare workers as Hispanic now hit a full 50% of the active cases in the state.
While we have lots of Spanish language billboards telling readers to apply for welfare programs, I've yet to see any action by Newsom to attempt to help Hispanics deal with Covid.

TLDR: It's not the elderly in CA.

COVID-19 Public Dashboard

 

[deonb]

Interesting graph. If you take out New York, the US hasn't peaked yet:

From:
https://www.erinbromage.com/post/th...9-7lgz4_25cHwDeoix5Sv1TzaPTrkkGopUP6zRwAsO0AE

 

[EinSV]

Interesting graph. If you take out New York, the US hasn't peaked yet:

View attachment 540178

From:
https://www.erinbromage.com/post/th...9-7lgz4_25cHwDeoix5Sv1TzaPTrkkGopUP6zRwAsO0AE

Unfortunately, like most trackers it doesn't look like she adjusts for increasing testing, which artificially drives case numbers up.

rt.live -- the covid-19 tracking site created by the Instagram founders -- does adjust for the level of testing.

Their latest estimate is that infections are heading down (Rt <1) in 49 states/DC, and rising in only 2 (Nebraska and Minnesota). Rt Covid-19

 

[Norbert]

US deaths crossed 80,000 on worldometers.

 

[Norbert]

Unfortunately, like most trackers it doesn't look like she adjusts for increasing testing, which artificially drives case numbers up.

rt.live -- the covid-19 tracking site created by the Instagram founders -- does adjust for the level of testing.

Their latest estimate is that infections are heading down (Rt <1) in 49 states/DC, and rising in only 2 (Nebraska and Minnesota). Rt Covid-19

View attachment 540183

rt.live shows Rt < 1 in many cases already significantly before the peak. It doesn't mean what one thinks it means: that cases are necessarily decreasing. I also suspect that its calculations over compensate, but that's difficult to tell.

EDIT 2: There are many examples, but take North Carolina, click on "show new cases".
Rt is shown as < 1 since April 8, but the number of hospitalizations has been increasing (almost) steadily since then, until beginning of May.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Interesting graph. If you take out New York, the US hasn't peaked yet:

Not interesting at all actually. Each of these data points is rooted in any number of arbitrary testing methodologies.

Meanwhile, US percentage of global deaths is 28.6% and growing. Here we are on May 9th doubling down on a strategy that's gotten us nowhere. We're at perhaps double the deaths we would have seen with a German-style response.

Lord knows how many deaths we've manufactured with this lockdown and how many lives we've ruined.

We're #1!

 

[EinSV]

Unfortunately, like most trackers it doesn't look like she adjusts for increasing testing, which artificially drives case numbers up.

rt.live -- the covid-19 tracking site created by the Instagram founders -- does adjust for the level of testing.

Their latest estimate is that infections are heading down (Rt <1) in 49 states/DC, and rising in only 2 (Nebraska and Minnesota). Rt Covid-19

View attachment 540183

Nate Silver has been making the same point:

Nate Silver on Twitter

Also:

 

[Norbert]

Nate Silver has been making the same point:

Nate Silver on Twitter

Also: View attachment 540212


View attachment 540213

Everyone agrees with that point, including most (or all) on this forum, but rt.live may go too far in the other direction, if you look at the trajectory of hospitalizations or deaths, as I posted a few days ago.

Nobody seems to have come up with a good way to take testing level into account, so we still look at un-adjusted numbers.

 

[Norbert]

Everyone agrees with that point, including most (or all) on this forum, but rt.live may go too far in the other direction, if you look at the trajectory of hospitalizations or deaths, as I posted a few days ago.

Nobody seems to have come up with a good way to take testing level into account, so we still look at un-adjusted numbers.

Basically, I resort to looking at the death trajectory of the US without New York State:

US deaths in the last 7 days were only about 200 lower than in the 7 days following April 7.
I didn't find historical numbers for New York State, but I guess they have decreased more than 200/day average, so that other states have increased somewhat. Of course, death numbers lag by 2 weeks or so.

 

[MXLRplus]

US deaths crossed 80,000 on worldometers.

What is that? About 0.024% fatalities? Only has to climb 100x to hit the predictions.