Coronavirus

[eevee-fan]

Interesting graph. If you take out New York, the US hasn't peaked yet:

View attachment 540178

From:
https://www.erinbromage.com/post/th...9-7lgz4_25cHwDeoix5Sv1TzaPTrkkGopUP6zRwAsO0AE

Nevadans challenge governor’s power to shut down state: ‘It’s not right’

Las Vegas just found its volunteer for the "control group".

 

[Norbert]

Basically, I resort to looking at the death trajectory of the US without New York State:

US deaths in the last 7 days were only about 200 lower than in the 7 days following April 7.
I didn't find historical numbers for New York State, but I guess they have decreased more than 200/day average, so that other states have increased somewhat. Of course, death numbers lag by 2 weeks or so.

Whereas rt.live shows all states with a total death count above 1,000 as having Rt < 1 for 4 weeks or more (except CA 2 days less than that).

If that were true, I would expect that deaths without NY should have gone down by now in a much more visible way, considering that only a few of the other states have a distinctly different picture.

 

[Norbert]

What is that? About 0.024% fatalities? Only has to climb 100x to hit the predictions.

There are no such "the" projections. Not even worst case scenarios.

 

[SMAlset]

And it continues to spread at the WH. From USAToday:

“At least 11 U.S. Secret Service employees were reported to be infected with the coronavirus and about 60 other staffers were in self-quarantine, a person familiar with the matter said Friday.“

Coronavirus: Secret Service employees infected with COVID-19

 

[linux-works]

musk has completely lost his mind:

Frankly, this is the final straw. Tesla will now move its HQ and future programs to Texas/Nevada immediately. If we even retain Fremont manufacturing activity at all, it will be dependen on how Tesla is treated in the future. Tesla is the last carmaker left in CA.

its sad that such a successful ceo has lost his mind. I would not trust a single thing this idiot has to say until he gets some perspective, cools down and takes some time off. none of which, I expect to see from him.

its this kind of wacky unpredictable behavior that stops a lot of people from even considering working at tesla. I can tell stories (I'm also in this area and work for a company that has quite a few ex-tesla employees.) its a small non-zero world, this new e-car industry in the bay area. no one I know wants to work at tesla. everyone I know in this field came FROM tesla or somewhere else, but no one wants to work AT tesla. gee, I wonder why.

elon, just shut the hell up and stop ruining your company with your trash talk. you need a filter. badly.

 

[renim]

FWIW, Qld context
2018 suicides in queensland is 818 https://www.griffith.edu.au/__data/...icide_in_QLD_2019_ANNUAL_REPORT_ACESSIBLE.pdf

Qld covid19 cases 1,045 covid19 fatalities 6

i think Qld slightly over-reacted, but not by much to coronavirus.

I don't think there is any where near enough focus on suicide, all said and done, Covid19 in Qld killed less than 1% of the suicide rate, its basically a rounding error.


FWIW from the start, Australian Government considered mental health was always to be considered alongside health and economy in regarding COVID19

(April 28th) start at midway mark

 

[Doggydogworld]

I didn't find historical numbers for New York State, but I guess they have decreased more than 200/day average, so that other states have increased somewhat.

No pretty graphs, just totals (with screenshots) at Covid Tracker. This is deaths of confirmed cases only, Worldometers has a higher total because it also includes NYC deaths of probable Covid cases.

President-elect Cuomo had a slide today showing the past 6 days flat at ~230 deaths. But Covid Tracker shows a big one-time adjustment on Thursday that was not on that slide. They may be going back and testing old tissue samples, turning probables into confirmeds.

Anyway, excluding the adjustment NY state averaged ~240/day the past week, 300+/day the week prior and close to 800/day about a month ago.

 

[Norbert]

No pretty graphs, just totals (with screenshots) at Covid Tracker. This is deaths of confirmed cases only, Worldometers has a higher total because it also includes NYC deaths of probable Covid cases.

President-elect Cuomo had a slide today showing the past 6 days flat at ~230 deaths. But Covid Tracker shows a big one-time adjustment on Thursday that was not on that slide. They may be going back and testing old tissue samples, turning probables into confirmeds.

Anyway, excluding the adjustment NY state averaged ~240/day the past week, 300+/day the week prior and close to 800/day about a month ago.

Thanks! If for NY I exclude that Thursday, and instead add the previous Friday, I get an average of 244 for the last 7 days. And 764 for the week following April 7.

This means that this week, since the week following April 7, combined for states other than NY, the average of deaths/day increased by about 300/day.

EDIT: Should read "NY", not "NYC".

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Nate Silver has been making the same point:

Nate Silver on Twitter

Also: View attachment 540212


View attachment 540213

Yep, this is something everyone should be aware of and has been strongly emphasized in this thread. It is important to keep it in mind. We want more testing! Focusing on case counts and wanting them to decrease will DISCOURAGE testing. So we should not focus on that. We should focus on maximizing test numbers, testing likely cases and contacts only, not randomly except in cases of an extreme surplus, and minimizing positivity.

The final goal is 0% positivity and ongoing widespread surveillance with ongoing massive testing (can be more random as time goes on).

 

[SageBrush]

The White House sociopathic moron and his rotisserie of clowns is leading by example:

They are showing the country how to act if the goal is Covid infection.

Carry on, and be sure to broadcast ! I just hope Fauci does not succumb.

 

[dhanson865]

Getting Back to Work

Getting Back to Work
The Tesla Team May 9, 2020

Tesla is the last major carmaker remaining in California, and the largest manufacturing employer in the State with more than 10,000 employees at our Fremont factory and 20,000 statewide. We understand the impacts COVID-19 has caused and have a responsibility to look out for the livelihoods and safety of our personnel, many of whom rely on us and have been out of work for weeks due to the impacts of shelter-in-place orders.

Given the Governor’s recent guidance, which is supported by science and credible health data, the state and federal government’s classification of vehicle manufacturing as national critical infrastructure, and our robust safety plan, Tesla has started the process of resuming operations. Our employees are excited to get back to work, and we’re doing so with their health and safety in mind.

What We’re Doing
Our restart plan is the result of months of careful planning and preparation. It was modeled after the comprehensive return to work plan we established at our Shanghai Gigafactory, which has seen smooth and healthy operations for the last three months.

We are taking the time we need to get our personnel properly trained before they begin work and all employees must complete an online video training before returning to work at any Tesla facility. We have a thorough return-to-work plan for all locations. A cross-functional response team, including an in-house physician, has been working daily to establish health and safety guidelines based on location- and job-specific risk assessments, and we are continuously reviewing our processes to ensure they work for our employees in this new environment.

Back in March, we conducted risk assessments at each site, looking at how and where people work, how they interact, and what measures are needed to meet safety standards. In some cases, we have added partitions or barriers to separate work areas and minimized employee interactions by positioning parts closer to where that task is completed on the line. We are also requiring additional personal protective equipment, along with rigorous cleaning and disinfecting protocols.

Our Return to Work playbook details the comprehensive safety measures we have introduced to ensure employee safety.

Why We’re Restarting
Tesla is not an outlier, nor are we going against the grain. From the State’s very first shelter-in-place order, national critical infrastructure, including vehicle manufacturing like Tesla’s Fremont factory, was considered vital and given permission to continue operating. The Governor repeated this direction this week when he made clear manufacturing should resume.

In addition, at least three neighboring counties in the same situation have already restarted their economies including manufacturing, including Solano, Napa, and San Joaquin Counties. Meanwhile, Alameda county, where our factory resides, and Santa Clara County next door, have stated in their return to work order FAQs that the manufacturing of distributed energy resources (which is defined in state law to include electric vehicles, solar and battery storage) is permitted to resume.

How We’ve Worked with the County
Contrary to the Governor’s recent guidance and support from the City of Fremont, Alameda County is insisting we should not resume operations. This is not for lack of trying or transparency since we have met with and collaborated on our restart plans with the Alameda County Health Care Services Agency. Unfortunately, the County Public Health Officer who is making these decisions has not returned our calls or emails.

The list below is just some of the information we’ve shared with city and county officials:

1. Detailed health and safety restart plan with checklist and photos
2. Employee health and safety guidelines
3. Risk assessment process, including what we’ve done throughout the factory
4. Risk assessment improvements, including how we’ve identified and addressed high/medium/low risks
5. Temperature screening protocol plus a commitment to add temperature screening when we resume long-distance shuttle routes
6. Revised Fremont production restart plan
7. Factory layout with square footage to illustrate on how people are spread out across our 6 million square foot facility
8. Break room capacities (reduced for social distancing) and numbers of people in each room based on work area

We will continue to put people back to work in a safe and responsible manner. However, the County’s position left us no choice but to take legal action to ensure that Tesla and its employees can get back to work. We filed a lawsuit on May 9 asking the court to invalidate the County Orders, to the extent the County claims they prevent Tesla from resuming operations.

Looks like they will open at this point even if Alameda says no.

 

[Singer3000]

Getting Back to Work

Getting Back to Work
The Tesla Team May 9, 2020




Looks like they will open at this point even if Alameda says no.

Can someone explain to us non Americans what’s going on here? Who has the power to decide here? The state, the county, the city or the Federal government?

Is Musk breaking an order here and daring authorities to prosecute? Or are there no statutory instruments in place for Tesla to breach?

If Tesla employees were to catch and die from cv-19, what liabilities might the company face in a civil court, if the company is acting against the orders of the county government?

Need to get a handle on whether this is just a media storm caused by CEO Twitter dramatics, or a real risk to the company and a signal to dump the stock while current management are in place.

 

[dhanson865]

Question: .

Can someone explain to us non Americans what’s going on here? Who has the power to decide here? The state, the county, the city or the Federal government?

.

Answer: Yes.

Note; Yes to a multiple choice question is usually considered to be a flippant response that agrees to both/all possible answers.

I'd say you even left some out (Courts, lawyers, Tesla), you could even add the President and Congress as separate options at the federal level.

In this case there are specifics in play that make it such that someone would have to write a multi-paragraph answer if they want to cover this correctly with all the required caveats that apply.

btw https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.359281/gov.uscourts.cand.359281.1.0.pdf is Tesla v Alameda Case Number: 4:20-cv-03186

we can wait to see how it plays out and then answer in retrospect but this might take months or years to play out in court.

 

[dhanson865]

"Just days before Germany planned to ease social distancing restrictions for COVID-19, a severe outbreak of the virus at a meat processing plant has led one state to delay loosening those guidelines."

Germany, on cusp of reopening, scrambles to contain fresh coronavirus outbreaks

 

[TespaceX]

And it continues to spread at the WH. From USAToday:

“At least 11 U.S. Secret Service employees were reported to be infected with the coronavirus and about 60 other staffers were in self-quarantine, a person familiar with the matter said Friday.“

Coronavirus: Secret Service employees infected with COVID-19

Bull crud! Lies are what you’re spreading.

You’re telling me no amount of HCQ, intravenous disinfectant, and UV radiation therapy kept the virus away from the WH?
I don’t buy that.



/S

 

[Norbert]

"Just days before Germany planned to ease social distancing restrictions for COVID-19, a severe outbreak of the virus at a meat processing plant has led one state to delay loosening those guidelines."

Germany, on cusp of reopening, scrambles to contain fresh coronavirus outbreaks

Wow, out of 200 tested, 151 were positive.

 

[Norbert]

Bull crud! Lies are what you’re spreading.

You’re telling me no amount of HCQ, intravenous disinfectant, and UV radiation therapy kept the virus away from the WH?
I don’t buy that.

/S

The virus didn't even listen when the President said "Go away!" repeatedly.

 

[dhanson865]

Getting Back to Work

Getting Back to Work
The Tesla Team May 9, 2020

Looks like they will open at this point even if Alameda says no.

Adrian M Fine -
"Palo Alto Mayor here. I would be really sad and disappointed if @tesla left @cityofpaloalto, and stand ready to help. I truly appreciate having a cutting edge company based here, employing people, paying taxes, and helping to solve the climate crisis. Happy to help @elonmusk"

 

[dqd88]

musk has completely lost his mind:

Frankly, this is the final straw. Tesla will now move its HQ and future programs to Texas/Nevada immediately. If we even retain Fremont manufacturing activity at all, it will be dependen on how Tesla is treated in the future. Tesla is the last carmaker left in CA.

its sad that such a successful ceo has lost his mind. I would not trust a single thing this idiot has to say until he gets some perspective, cools down and takes some time off. none of which, I expect to see from him.

its this kind of wacky unpredictable behavior that stops a lot of people from even considering working at tesla. I can tell stories (I'm also in this area and work for a company that has quite a few ex-tesla employees.) its a small non-zero world, this new e-car industry in the bay area. no one I know wants to work at tesla. everyone I know in this field came FROM tesla or somewhere else, but no one wants to work AT tesla. gee, I wonder why.

elon, just shut the hell up and stop ruining your company with your trash talk. you need a filter. badly.

Tesla is the last auto manufacturer in the US that is not allowed to operate. And they are located in an area with relatively few cases. Elon has a right to be pissed. We should all be pissed about it. Alameda county is being unreasonable.

 

[azaz]

Investors thread has direct quotes stating May 18 was gonna be Tesla re-open date like the other auto manufacturers.

musk is a hubristic ignorant brat. destroying Tesla’s brand for no good reason except his own inability to understand the severity of the virus.