Coronavirus

[TheTalkingMule]

The official Florida Covid-19 deaths as of 10 AM are 2364. Note that the pneumonia deaths listed above are over 4000 more than in recent years. So, no, the pneumonia deaths are not bundled into the Covid deaths.

That's what I was trying to illustrate. We have a few southern states opening early who are heavily incentivized to under-count via methods like shifting cause of death to flu or pneumonia. Other states will over-count in order to gain more federal resources and I think the two will approximately balance each other out.

 

[SageBrush]

This is disheartening to me, it's crazy how quickly it can flare up again.

Hmm. I'd say that the flares are entirely expected and each flare will have no less than 2 generations of infections. Korea is remarkable in being able to squelch each flare within two generations of infections.

It is noteworthy just how many people an index person can infect in the right context, like church type meetings and workplaces with high worker density and poor ventilation.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Sorry, but many of these conditions are ... in some cases, hereditary. Eventually, regardless of exercise and diet, people die of these diseases. That is not to say that some folks are too sedimentary and over eat and eat the wrong things which are not helpful. I suppose that you are one of the few that are not among the idiots. How arrogant to make such a statement.

Trying to get a doctor to be less arrogant is like telling a crackwhore to stop smoking crack. It's a fools errand.

Cancer and tons of other "genetic" diseases are by no means a foregone conclusion at birth. Not even close. Genes usually need environmental stimuli to express themselves.

 

[golfcart]

I agree unless they caught it after the isolation protocols or their symptoms cleared before testing (Was the question "do you currently have symptoms?" or was it "did you have symptoms?"). After 20 days I would guess most people would no longer have symptoms but I would also think they wouldn't test positive. I'm just confused...
I'm basing my assumed truly asymptomatic numbers off of Korean data where they say it's about a quarter or a third. In this Korean call center outbreak only 4% of people were asymptomatic (Coronavirus Disease Outbreak in Call Center, South Korea). It seems to be quite a mysterious virus.

It's just one data point so hard to draw a lot of conclusions from it but these cruise ships do seem like idealized experiments in a lot of ways. I agree, still a lot to learn about this virus.

 

[ram1901]

You are babbling nonsense. To the null bucket you go

Not my quote: Quote from national publication.
""Symptoms of COVID-19 can appear from two to 14 days after you’ve been exposed to the virus. You can be exposed by droplets from an infected person’s coughs and sneezes and by touching a surface that an infected person has contaminated. Most people will recover within one to two weeks. More severe cases can take six weeks or more to recover.""
OR looking at it from the reverse view.. instead of recovery rate, see the latest CDC estimate of the death rate and BAM!!

The CDC's New 'Best Estimate' Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3%

Seems when the facts overwhelm you, you cover your ears and eyes and mind to the truth and begin name calling.

 

[golfcart]

The official Florida Covid-19 deaths as of 10 AM are 2364. Note that the pneumonia deaths listed above are over 4000 more than in recent years. So, no, the pneumonia deaths are not bundled into the Covid deaths.

The tweet originally referenced showing excess pneumonia deaths was fact checked and deleted. The corrected data has been shown to be more or less in line with what one might expect relative to reported COVID deaths. The relevant thread is below. New data includes sources.

Andy Slavitt @ on Twitter

For lack of a better term, it was "fake news". Probably not intentionally wrong but probably not given the scrutiny it deserved before being posted because it made the "other team" look bad.

 

[dfwatt]

Sorry, but many of these conditions are ... in some cases, hereditary. Eventually, regardless of exercise and diet, people die of these diseases. That is not to say that some folks are too sedimentary and over eat and eat the wrong things which are not helpful. I suppose that you are one of the few that are not among the idiots. How arrogant to make such a statement.

Not just ignorant but laughably ignorant. And that last statement looks to be a clear projection.

 

[bkp_duke]

Not my quote: Quote from national publication.
""Symptoms of COVID-19 can appear from two to 14 days after you’ve been exposed to the virus. You can be exposed by droplets from an infected person’s coughs and sneezes and by touching a surface that an infected person has contaminated. Most people will recover within one to two weeks. More severe cases can take six weeks or more to recover.""
OR looking at it from the reverse view.. instead of recovery rate, see the latest CDC estimate of the death rate and BAM!!

The CDC's New 'Best Estimate' Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3%

Seems when the facts overwhelm you, you cover your ears and eyes and mind to the truth and begin name calling.

The words "CDC" and "facts" have not been harmonious lately.

I trust the WHO more at this point, the CDC has been politically tainted and lost my trust. And I say that as a physician that has backed them for decades.

 

[bkp_duke]

Trying to get a doctor to be less arrogant is like telling a crackwhore to stop smoking crack. It's a fools errand.

Cancer and tons of other "genetic" diseases are by no means a foregone conclusion at birth. Not even close. Genes usually need environmental stimuli to express themselves.

And apparently trying to get people with ZERO medical experience to understand that their "medical opinion" is worthless is equally a "fools errand".

 

[SageBrush]

New data includes sources

I hate Twitter and its screen captures.

What is the link to the data you like ?

 

[KG M3]

Not my quote: Quote from national publication.
""Symptoms of COVID-19 can appear from two to 14 days after you’ve been exposed to the virus. You can be exposed by droplets from an infected person’s coughs and sneezes and by touching a surface that an infected person has contaminated. Most people will recover within one to two weeks. More severe cases can take six weeks or more to recover.""
OR looking at it from the reverse view.. instead of recovery rate, see the latest CDC estimate of the death rate and BAM!!

The CDC's New 'Best Estimate' Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3%

Seems when the facts overwhelm you, you cover your ears and eyes and mind to the truth and begin name calling.

BAM??? Has someone learned their epidemiology from Emeril Lagasse? And then someone tries to quote an unnamed "national publication"? The National Enquirer is published nationally - so I suggest that we assign this unattributed quote similar weight?

Then the "Reason" article still quotes the Stanford/Ioannidis "study" as if it had any remaining credibility. That credibility was destroyed by the fact that his colleagues at Stanford retested his samples with the ELISA method (laboratory gold standard for testing) and found fully half of the samples reported as positive were, in fact, false positives.

The facts are overwhelming here - but not the way the OP thinks they are. . .

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

some folks are too sedimentary

That reminds me of the joke:

Why are some rocks so lazy?

They live a sedimentary lifestyle.

 

[normd]

What does this have to do wit a Tesla?

 

[Daniel in SD]

What does this have to do wit a Tesla?

Not much. The pandemic is having a major impact on Tesla sales and production though.
I guess it's in the investor forum so we should be trying to predict the future but that's really hard right now.

 

[scottf200]

I hate Twitter and its screen captures.

What is the link to the data you like ?

Links from below image:
1) National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System
2) Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

From author (Justin Fox/Bloomberg) below: Justin Fox on Twitter

 

[Daniel in SD]

What does this have to do wit a Tesla?

In actual Tesla and Coronavirus news, SCCA is starting autocross (with many precautions!) again June 13th and we will finally determine whether @AlanSubie4Life's P3D is superior to my Exocet.

 

[cusetownusa]

NYS as updated the data they show in their coronavirus dashboard. I thought that some people here might like to dissect the numbers.

Early Warning Monitoring Dashboard

 

[dhanson865]

as I said in Coronavirus the daily numbers were increasing and the weekly numbers were as well.

Knox County hits red light on COVID-19 phased reopening plan

"Knox County has hit a benchmark red light for progress on the reduction of COVID-19 cases, according to standards set by the Knox County Health Department."

"According to information published on the KCHD website, Knox County must report a stable or decreased number of COVID-19 cases in the county over a 14-day period."

"Knox County has reported an increase of 16% and an active case increase of 40% cases since last Friday."

"A red light signifies the trends are not moving towards benchmark attainment and may indicate mid-phase adjustments need to be made, according to the health department."


Benchmarks are from Knox County COVID-19 Case Count - COVID-19 - Health Department - Knox County Tennessee Government

 

[SVMike]

As I said, in the context of the discussion where the comment from @Norbert was made, we weren’t talking about the rate of spread anyway. The point was to illustrate the small percentage of the populace infected to date, and extrapolate the NYC mortality numbers to the nation. That does not have anything to do with the rate of spread.

I think that one could argue that the rate of spread in NYC was so fast (compared to other US locations) that the virus was able to get deep into the highly vulnerable at nursing homes (patients and staff) and into elderly/sick home care (patients and staff). When many patients and staff have been infected (many asymptomatic, initially) the overall death rate is likely to be higher than spreads elsewhere. In addition the NY policy of sending COVID positive elderly back to nursing homes tilted the demographic age groups of those infected.

I think you'd have to break the data down into age groups with similar healthiness and comorbidity factors in order to properly compare different regions

 

[Norbert]

I wonder what percentage of people testing positive actually volunteer to use a contact tracing app and identify themselves as having been infected. Not just in RI, but across the country.

To be effective, IMO, a positive test should be automatically entered into tracing databases. But, of course, we have privacy advocates against such things.

GIGO.

An app is surely helpful, but not a requirement for contact tracing. A description of SF's tracing talked mainly about (voluntary and confidential) phone conversations by (human) contact tracers trained for the job.