That is not how it came across. Just use ignore. It cleans up this thread and makes it much more informative.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
MXLRplus
Active Member
6074 nursing home deaths in New York state according to NY. Other sources report significantly higher. California and Texas combined total C19 deaths is lower than NY's nursing home deaths alone. So NY does not have a low PPM body count in nursing homes by any stretch of the imagination.
https://www.health.ny.gov/statistics/diseases/covid-19/fatalities_nursing_home_acf.pdf
"SILVADUR™ antimicrobial has been assessed as harmless to human health and added to the list of active chemical products approved by the International Oeko-Tex® Association. It is registered with the U.S. EPA and its active ingredient is notified and supported under the EU Biocidal Products Registry (BPR). In addition, SILVADUR™ antimicrobial technology is registered to meet REACH requirements in the European Union."
In California we have warning signs telling us wood lumber is a carcinogen. Handwringer Heaven.
Wait until we find that our shadows are deadly.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
No way are any of those infection rates within an order of magnitude of reality. 0.4% in Italy? Or are you talking about active cases, not including recovered or never symptomatic? 0.4% of Italy is 240k people and there are at least 35k deaths there.
@SageBrush Yes, I practice all the usual safety precautions with Covid.
All,
I'm not a doctor but both my brothers are physicians and we have some interesting conversations on the subject. I have no illusions about contributing to a cure for COVID19, but I'm trying to envision how technology will allow us to defeat this virus, partly from the standpoint of an investor, and partly from the standpoint of someone with a mother in her late 80s whom I'd like to see be able to enjoy the company of her family on a regular basis again.I also want to see fewer deaths worldwide.
My best guess was that short term we'd see one of the therapeudics show promise. Remdesivir is some help but can only be given in a hospital setting. HCQ obviously is not good once someone is already in the ICU but for a quick treatment at first sign of the virus and combined with zinc it showed promise in the NYU study. I've also been hopeful the Japanese drug made by FujiFilm, favipiravir, would pan out, but I haven't heard much, which is not a good sign.
Mid-term, let's say by end of summer, I've been hoping that a good monoclonal antibody would become available. A cocktail of monoclonal antibodies turned out to be the best treatment for ebola, so perhaps covid19 will see a good solution too. The advantage of monoclonal antibodies is that they can be given to someone with the disease and very quickly improvement is possible. Such a breakthrough would buy us time for a vaccine.
The vaccine would of course be the best solution, and there's talk about large quantities of a workable vaccine being available by year's end. The U.S. is throwing money at the problem by paying to ramp up production of vaccines that might never pan out. Given what there is to lose, I'm okay with that approach. All we need is one that works. If it costs a billion dollars to ramp production for a single vaccine and the country is losing trillions of economic activity in the meantime, I think it's a fair tradeoff.
So, that's where I'm coming from. The HCQ thing is just a small part of the big picture.
All,
I'm not a doctor but both my brothers are physicians and we have some interesting conversations on the subject. I have no illusions about contributing to a cure for COVID19, but I'm trying to envision how technology will allow us to defeat this virus, partly from the standpoint of an investor, and partly from the standpoint of someone with a mother in her late 80s whom I'd like to see be able to enjoy the company of her family on a regular basis again.I also want to see fewer deaths worldwide.
My best guess was that short term we'd see one of the therapeudics show promise. Remdesivir is some help but can only be given in a hospital setting. HCQ obviously is not good once someone is already in the ICU but for a quick treatment at first sign of the virus and combined with zinc it showed promise in the NYU study. I've also been hopeful the Japanese drug made by FujiFilm, favipiravir, would pan out, but I haven't heard much, which is not a good sign.
Mid-term, let's say by end of summer, I've been hoping that a good monoclonal antibody would become available. A cocktail of monoclonal antibodies turned out to be the best treatment for ebola, so perhaps covid19 will see a good solution too. The advantage of monoclonal antibodies is that they can be given to someone with the disease and very quickly improvement is possible. Such a breakthrough would buy us time for a vaccine.
The vaccine would of course be the best solution, and there's talk about large quantities of a workable vaccine being available by year's end. The U.S. is throwing money at the problem by paying to ramp up production of vaccines that might never pan out. Given what there is to lose, I'm okay with that approach. All we need is one that works. If it costs a billion dollars to ramp production for a single vaccine and the country is losing trillions of economic activity in the meantime, I think it's a fair tradeoff.
So, that's where I'm coming from. The HCQ thing is just a small part of the big picture.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yes, he is talking about active cases. You can go to covid19-projections.com and see their estimates yourself.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Absolutely. The only point I was making that the correlation between infection rates outside of nursing homes and infection rates inside nursing homes is weaker than I would expect. For example New Jersey has a similar number of deaths in nursing homes but one quarter the number of deaths outside nursing homes! I guess that could be because they have more nursing homes? Anyway, New York did an even worse job of protecting people outside nursing homes than they did of protecting people inside nursing homes. I'm not sure why people are fixated on nursing homes in New York.
Can't we repeal that proposition already? haha.
Anyway I'm not sure why people don't just wear surgical masks. They're cheap and widely available now. I wonder if they really considered the use case of breathing through "silvadur" for hours a day? It would be nice if we could buy some legit N95s...
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yeah, I really don't understand why we can't do that at this point. It's been three months! The government should be giving them out for free, like candy, honestly. They sent everyone a nice postcard announcing the start of the pandemic a while back; don't see why they can't send every household a ten-pack of N95 masks - that's only a couple billion of them - seems like we should be able to make that many no problem.
In other news:
Corona Party Time at Lake of the Ozarks
Seems like a good time was had by all during the Transition To Greatness. Hopefully this little infection amounts to nothing. As long as he wasn't a superspreader we should be cool. On the positive side, this will be a good test of whether outdoor pools are safe.
Norbert
TSLA will win
That number isn't very different from the one in the comparison that you responded to. So I don't know what your point is.
Comparing it to CA or TX numbers is completely pointless since their outbreak is much smaller altogether. You might as well compare it to South Korea and say it is 20x.
Age group comparisons have been made for NYC. While I didn't keep refs, I don't recall a single one that talked about NYC being very unusual in that way, and I would.
Another one of Ioannidis' misdirections.
One problem is that when this started, some of the N95 mask manufacturers asked the government if they wanted to start stockpiling, and the feds said no. So production didn't ramp until way too late.
The second problem is that Toyota came up with this idea called just-in-time manufacturing, which then spread like a plague through American businesses in the form of zero-inventory operations, and the result is that instead of having fifty of these things in a back room at every hardware store and Wal-Mart, there were just the three on the shelves; instead of having millions of them in a warehouse, there were just enough to replace the three on the shelves; and so on, all the way up the line.
This pandemic should be a wakeup call to all Americans that stores and warehouses with zero or near-zero inventory create an unacceptably high risk of creating a public health emergency because of shortages of everything from N95 masks to meat, from hand sanitizer to toilet paper.
And the third problem is that after the 2009 H1N9 chaos caused the federal government's PPE stores to dwindle, neither President Obama nor his successor who shall not be named bothered to replenish that inventory, resulting in critical shortages at hospitals nationwide.
And the fourth problem is that hospitals were also pulling that zero-inventory crap, keeping only enough supplies to last until the next shipment, and when the next shipment didn't come, they were screwed. I mean, I'm exaggerating a little bit here, but not by nearly as much as I wish I were.
Basically, everything comes down to this: Nobody was willing to spend the money to stockpile the products that would keep us safe, so when we needed them, they weren't available, and they are still trying to dig themselves out of that huge hole that cost-cutting made.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
maybe you've never heard this before but when woodworking you are supposed to wear a dust mask to keep dust out of your lungs.
That isn't a California thing, that is a wood working thing.
Silvadur might be safe as can be for putting on your feet, but might be unsafe to put in front of your nose.
Also even if Silvadur is safe to put in front of your nose, lets say for a second that it is safe to inhale into your lungs (which I doubt), but just say it is. You still have the factor that those masks that TN paid $8.2M for are porous as all get out and don't stop viruses from being inhaled (they don't stop dust worth a darn either). They do have at least the benefit of showing that someone wearing one properly has some intent to protect themselves and the people around them. But they are clearly objectively worse than any brand name dust mask you could have bought in any store a year ago.
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dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Consider TN "sock masks" as being worse than a 100% cotton shirt shown on this image.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Guess who finally made it onto the per capita list today (bottom of the blue column, cases per million people)
If I’m not mistaken, we’re probably the largest country not handing out free masks to the public.
Somehow, we’re fine printing thousands of dollars for everyone, but can’t seem to get the necessary masks to everyone.
It would be rare that a retrospective observational trial is called reputable, particularly given the body of research on zinc to RTIs
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
I thought that was the rumor that started all this. Bat soup from a wet shop.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
STOP saying this. This is a blatant fabrication by saying "44% less morbidity". It was a "second layer statistic" of a hazard ratio.
Literally you keep coming to conclusions on this paper that the researchers themselves, in the LAST PARAGRAPH of the paper, said cannot be made.
Zinc . . . Vitamin C . . . Vitamin D . . . as docs we have seen all of these before. Everytime something new pops up, these old candidates get polished off by their (extremely biased) proponents and cherry-picked data published that sends everyone into a tizzy. Then, after billions of dollars later we come to the same conclusion . . . . they are vitamins (and minerals). By definition if you don't have enough you have problems, but "super sizing" with them doesn't provide protective effects.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Yeah, the one that tells me my coffee is a carcinogen really gets under my skin. . .
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
We already have the equivalent, and it's cheaper and has a century of good data behind it:
Convalescent Serum (i.e. polyclonal antibodies harvested from people that have been confirmed to have had COVID-19).
We should be harvesting and banking this stuff in preparation for Wave 2 . . . but our government is staffed with a bunch of self-serving bureaucrats that could not identify their head from their ass without an instruction manual and a kickback.
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