Coronavirus

[MXLRplus]

The scientists Zuckerberg and Dorsey have ruled that children are now more susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 than adults and anyone who refutes it shall be dealt with harshly.

 

[TespaceX]

Solano County’s (a little north of Tesla Fremont) health director just issued new guidance, and I have to say it’s one of the more strange things I’ve read from a person in charge of public health.

Solano County - News Details

Here are some excerpts:

• Anyone who tested positive and has isolated for 10 days from the date that their symptoms began is no longer infectious, even if some may have lingering symptoms.
• In many situations, remnants of dead virus particles remain in the body for several weeks, and can cause a positive test result; however, 10 days after symptoms began, individuals can no longer transmit the virus.
  
• If the 10-day isolation criteria have been met, then there is no need for a verification for returning to work.

 

[TespaceX]

The scientists Zuckerberg and Dorsey have ruled that children are now more susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 than adults and anyone who refutes it shall be dealt with harshly.

No need to be concerned.
This will all just go away soon.

 

[dfwatt]

True true

And thats Ok.

A quick primer on choices
COVID-19: An overview of the current pharmacological interventions, vaccines, and clinical trials - ScienceDirect

Just skimmed that piece. It actually looks to be a superb overview not just of vaccines and treatments but of the whole story of covid-19 - but it hasn't been edited yet or peer reviewed. But it still is an excellent piece for people who want a moderately technical review that covers everything from Soup To Nuts. While it's not pitched at a laypersons level it's not super dense or super technical. Anybody with a modest biology background can follow it.

It's really the best single review of covid-19 that I've seen yet to date. For this reason, I highly recommend folks on the Forum take a look at it if they want to do a somewhat deeper dive on covid-19 biology and treatment. It will give you a solid foundation to understand the literal flood of publications that are coming out about the disease. And for folks who are concerned about actually what might happen if they catch this disease, your best chance for a good outcome (esp in more severe disease) is to be an informed and sophisticated patient who can ask intelligent questions of your treating physician. Folks who do that get better care. That's been shown in study after study.

 

[Daniel in SD]

The scientists Zuckerberg and Dorsey have ruled that children are now more susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 than adults and anyone who refutes it shall be dealt with harshly.

Source? Nationwide antibody testing in Spain and Italy suggests they are equally susceptible...

 

[dhanson865]

Looks like due to the massive success we've had in the US, we're gradually winding down the testing apparatus, as it is no longer needed in such vast numbers. Mission Accomplished.

We really opened up a can on that virus; it is headed for the hills now. It's "going away like things go away."

I'm not sure if you read that chart right, check out this Trump interview for clarification

 

[renim]

Are you talking about "COVAX-19" (developed by Adelaide-based company Vaxine) which has laboratories at Flinders University BUT AFAIK is still one phase one trials?
Australian COVID-19 vaccine candidate shows positive results in phase one human trials

Yeah, they're into phase 2 now, it seems they are mostly recycling efforts from an old Sars vacinne they had developed.

Dashboard and daily update

A fine vacinne is like a fine wine, it will take some time.....

 

[dfwatt]

In the current clusterf--- of bungling incompetence, there really is some good news - we are starting to figure out what goes wrong with the immune system in those with more severe disease. Here is a lay person's summary of this research, although it may be behind a pay wall at the NY Times. But the story gives links to four really excellent but rather technical papers for those with a biological science or medical background, but work that begins to explain why some people deal with this pathogen so badly and how the immune system turns traitor in a sense.

Short form of a long story, it appears that there are three somewhat distinct 'lanes' in the innate immune system (activated by viruses, worms/parasites/venoms, and bacteria/fungi respectively - with somewhat different signals/immune partners), and that folks with bad outcomes in COVID-19 have sustained and inappropriate activation of the non-viral defense pathways, and perhaps even an inhibition of the viral defense pathway - which may be why interferon beta has been shown effective in some studies. But the sustained activation of other non-viral defense pathways may compromise the critical hand-off from the innate to the adaptive branch of the immune system, which comes in as inflammation ramps down to institute highly effective (and less host-damaging) defense organized by T cells, B cells, and antibodies.

But I think this is most encouraging, because it gives us a basis for designing therapies rationally, and not just by serendipity. This is huge IMHO. More on this later . . . .I'm going to read and digest all of the research pieces and try to summarize for the forum. . . .after I get some sleep, which is critical for both immunocompetence . . . and neurocognitive function!

 

[lascavarian]

As a beekeeper, I encountered a proposed approach for the honeybee problems with Varroa mites. The fix was a bit out of the blue and IMO troubling. Mite mitigation has traditionally been mostly a delicate dance of toxicity. Poison the hive just enough to killl the pathogens (mites) but not enough to kill the queen (ugly work). This also amplifies the the evolution of mites immune to the poison and only works for a few years.

Along comes an idea to feed honeybees sugar water dosed with a bit of designed genetic material that is not known to be harmful to the bees. The genetic material stimulates (genetically?) the production of a molecule/protein that is carried in the hemolymph (think blood) in the honeybees. Mites feed on the honeybee hemolymph and when mites encounter this product, they are stressed and Victory. So easy, just feed the gallon of genetic stuff and stand back.

There are profound problems with this idea IMO as a beekeeper. It sounds elegant but like many concepts, the view is too narrow. That genetic substance to be fed to bees in the first place will end up in humans. Drones are promiscuous and worker bees in general are known to visit other hives where this substance will inevitably end up in the comb/honey and then up the food chain. (Any pathogen treatment of any hive is nearly impossible to isolate from other hives since bees travel miles.) It will encounter pregnant humans and children and patients undergoing various treatments. There are immuno-therapy approaches involving bee venom and then there are bee excreted products like royal jelly. It will get into other species of insect (I have very smart Preying Mantis predators that grab bees right at the hive entrance) and get into your gardens.

So to my view (and I surely have limited knowledge here) this seems nearly impossible to study safely in the real world (as proposed). But this idea never really took off to my knowledge and relief. I am now wondering if the science behind this idea was derived from something similar to the MRNA vaccine approach of Moderna? Reading that paper had familiar ring to it.

This is a compelling approach in its targeting but the complexity of understanding necessary to pull this off is sobering IMO.

Honeybees are heavily studied. Stuff like this comes out regularly.

Acute thiamethoxam toxicity in honeybees is not enhanced by common fungicide and herbicide and lacks stress-induced changes in mRNA splicing

Or

Sick Bees - Part 4: Immune Response to Viruses - Scientific Beekeeping

Here is a particularly informative article if you have a few minutes.

Immunology Is Where Intuition Goes to Die

 

[ZeApelido]

Looks like a propaganda site to me. If you look up their "references" at the end, they are news articles, social media posts and the like, not actual studies.


Also, WHOIS info for the domain is set to private, domain was registered just one week ago (7/27/2020), and the site is hosted on Google Cloud and appears to have just gone live in the last 1-2 days . . . .

Undoubtedly set up by a forum member here.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Looks like Florida is likely experiencing maximum number of deaths per day (EDIT: To be clear, by date of death, not by date of report) now (we'll see in about 17 days). Whether it will go any higher from here is TBD, but probably quite close to a (local) peak, based on case line data.

There are things like faster reporting that could explain steep initial curves, but generally the correlation of initial slope to final integrated death value remains good.

 

[ZeApelido]

In the current clusterf--- of bungling incompetence, there really is some good news - we are starting to figure out what goes wrong with the immune system in those with more severe disease. Here is a lay person's summary of this research, although it may be behind a pay wall at the NY Times. But the story gives links to four really excellent but rather technical papers for those with a biological science or medical background, but work that begins to explain why some people deal with this pathogen so badly and how the immune system turns traitor in a sense.

Short form of a long story, it appears that there are three somewhat distinct 'lanes' in the innate immune system (activated by viruses, worms/parasites/venoms, and bacteria/fungi respectively - with somewhat different signals/immune partners), and that folks with bad outcomes in COVID-19 have sustained and inappropriate activation of the non-viral defense pathways, and perhaps even an inhibition of the viral defense pathway - which may be why interferon beta has been shown effective in some studies. But the sustained activation of other non-viral defense pathways may compromise the critical hand-off from the innate to the adaptive branch of the immune system, which comes in as inflammation ramps down to institute highly effective (and less host-damaging) defense organized by T cells, B cells, and antibodies.

But I think this is most encouraging, because it gives us a basis for designing therapies rationally, and not just by serendipity. This is huge IMHO. More on this later . . . .I'm going to read and digest all of the research pieces and try to summarize for the forum. . . .after I get some sleep, which is critical for both immunocompetence . . . and neurocognitive function!

So, HCQ?

 

[ZeApelido]

Looks like Florida is likely experiencing maximum number of deaths per day now (we'll see in about 17 days). Whether it will go any higher from here is TBD, but probably quite close to a (local) peak, based on case line data.

There are things like faster reporting that could explain steep initial curves, but generally the correlation of initial slope to final integrated death value remains good.

View attachment 573135

Deaths don't look down to me yet.

Positive rate is dipping slight just now so deaths may sustain this level for a few more weeks.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Deaths don't look down to me yet.

View attachment 573143

Positive rate is dipping slight just now so deaths may sustain this level for a few more weeks.

View attachment 573144

You are plotting by date of report. (Marc Bevand thinks we're probably pretty close to a 7-day SMA peak in "by date of report," as I recall - should be a broad peak over the next week or so, with a length of 7-10 days, but definitely could end up higher than where it is currently.)

mbevand/florida-covid19-line-list-data

Again, due to the substantial lag, the days of maximum reports will lag the date of maximum deaths by day of death (the plot above). Probably by about 10 days - the guy whose plot I posted I think calculates this lag. Takes about 20 days to fully settle, but that doesn't mean the lag between the two peaks is 20 days necessarily.

What happens from here really depends. If Florida actually goes through the insanity of reopening schools, etc, it's possible we'll just see a day of death plateau. It's not like they've done much to really actively drive down the spread.

 

[dfwatt]

Here is a particularly informative article if you have a few minutes.

Immunology Is Where Intuition Goes to Die

Yes that's an excellent review pitched at a lay person level. I highly recommend it.

The only thing I could add is that the complexity becomes less frustrating when you begin to see the underlying principle which is recursion and by this I mean multiple forms of negative and positive feedback as a basic regulatory principle.

 

[ggr]

I found this article helpful.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...e-can-get-more-out-our-covid-19-test-options/

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

It really would be nice if we actually got serious about opening schools and universities. It IS super important to get these open (safely) again. I think it probably can be done in many locations, but it's going involve a lot of planning and cost a significant amount to do so. What it doesn't involve is reopening and hoping for the best.

 

[dfwatt]

I found this article helpful.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...e-can-get-more-out-our-covid-19-test-options/

For people interested in getting into more detail here is the guy who is the preeminent expert Dr Michael Mina, talking about antigen testing. The problem with PCR is that while it is more sensitive from a clinical and Disease Control standpoint it's almost too sensitive. It can't discriminate between people who have beaten the virus and just have enough fragments of it around to turn positive, or people or in a late incubation stage and who are not yet contagious. It also cost at least a hundred bucks a test, and simply can't be scaled up to do tens to hundreds of millions of tests a day. Currently people are having to wait 3 to 5 days on average to get results, by which time the results have lost at least a significant chunk of its value. Antigen testing on the other hand catches virtually everybody who's got enough virus load to be contagious, costs two bucks a test, but it is currently snagged in a No Man's land of regulatory issues. It's a good example of people designing a test for one context but where are the test frankly is not particularly valuable despite its sensitivity in another context – namely where we find ourselves now with rampant and widespread transmission. Antigen testing what allow is to open up school safely, and allow so many other things if it was scaled up and done properly.

 

[TespaceX]

It really would be nice if we actually got serious about opening schools and universities. It IS super important to get these open (safely) again. I think it probably can be done in many locations, but it's going involve a lot of planning and cost a significant amount to do so. What it doesn't involve is reopening and hoping for the best.

That likely eliminates most public schools in the US. With lower budgets and the likely need to spend more on substitute teachers (since it’s likely more teachers and staff will be going to call in sick), I can’t imagine any school having the means to go the distance. Many public school teachers still are buying their own supplies.

Edited to add:
The Southern might as well just have a hug it out fest.
The leaders in Georgia are just messed up. Can’t fix stupid.
I’ve heard of school districts in the South prohibiting teachers and staff from commenting on social media about any potential lack of precautions. That itself is controversial. But, now schools suspending students who take to social media about the lack of school’s precautionary measures? I mean, jeez.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/educ...wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook

 

[eevee-fan]

Looks like Florida is likely experiencing maximum number of deaths per day (EDIT: To be clear, by date of death, not by date of report) now (we'll see in about 17 days). Whether it will go any higher from here is TBD, but probably quite close to a (local) peak, based on case line data.

There are things like faster reporting that could explain steep initial curves, but generally the correlation of initial slope to final integrated death value remains good.

View attachment 573135

Florida is turning into a Blue State to match the ocean.