Coronavirus

[linux-works]

It also suggests that shared toilets in hospitals could be quite hazardous.

perhaps it will be good news for the adult diaper companies!

(there's always a bright side. and a dark side. ooh, that's gross. sorry.)

 

[deffu]

what's ridiculous is that we might end up with toilet paper shortage because people are buying a multi-year supply at one time.

As coronavirus infections spread, demand for oat milk is outpacing hand sanitizer

apparently people are stocking up on oat milk too.

Coronavirus panic is dumb!!!

 

[sparcs]

Coronavirus panic is dumb!!!

Apparently those toilet paper pictures are all from Australia. Americans are going crazy for oat milk, face masks, and hand sanitizer.

They should at least stock up on Tesla Solar Roofs before the coronavirus eats through the power lines.

 

[linux-works]

I never heard of oat's milk.

sounds painful.

I'll pass.

 

[KSilver2000]

what's ridiculous is that we might end up with toilet paper shortage because people are buying a multi-year supply at one time.

As coronavirus infections spread, demand for oat milk is outpacing hand sanitizer

apparently people are stocking up on oat milk too.

Anything that's shelf or refrigerator stable. At Whole Foods today, a lot of foods in the frozen section were going fast.

 

[linux-works]

the integer bug happened. doh!

I really can't wait 23,000 years. I don't think anyone can.

 

[eevee-fan]

 

[Causalien]

https://osf.io/ktngw/

Guangdong has a different diet and different climate to Wuhan. There is speculation that covid19 somehow affects prevotella (which is bad news for high carb high fibre diet)

Anyway, perhaps this explains a higher rate of false negatives. And ups the value of toilet hygeine and hand cleaning.

It also suggests that shared toilets in hospitals could be quite hazardous.

So far, Germans are shrugging it off as a flu. There's definitely something going on either in the diets or the genes. Germany should be one of the worst hit country in Europe due to higher percentage of smokers. Yes, they have a lot of infections, but not particularly high compared to spain or france.

 

[cwerdna]

While driving home tonight, I heard a local AM radio station talking to the Oakland vice mayor basically about the below. He didn't have that many details as apparently, he missed a conference call at 8:15 pm about it.

Cruise Ship Hit by Virus to Dock in Oakland, California

A cruise ship that was hit by the new coronavirus is headed to the port of Oakland, California, the captain told passengers Saturday night.

Grand Princess Capt. John Smith, in a recording provided by passenger Laurie Miller of San Jose, told guests he anticipated arrival at the Port of Oakland Sunday afternoon. The ship is carrying more than 3,500 people from 54 countries.

“An agreement has been reached to bring our ship into the port of Oakland tomorrow,” he said. “After docking, we will then begin a disembarkation process specified by federal authorities that will take several days. Guests who require acute medical treatment and hospitalization will be transported to health care facilities in California.”

After medical screening, California residents who don’t require acute medical care “will go to a federally operated isolation facility within California for testing and isolation,” Smith said.

U.S. guests from other states will be transported by the federal government to facilities in other states.

Crew will be quarantined and treated aboard the ship.

Coronavirus-Stricken Grand Princess Expected To Dock In Oakland

I'd originally heard that the folks needing treatment (COVID-19 or not) would get off first on Sunday and the rest of the passengers on Monday.

 

[sparcs]

Elon just posted a few more tweets on COVID-19:

Virality of C19 is overstated due to conflating diagnosis date with contraction date & over-extrapolating exponential growth, which is never what happens in reality. Keep extrapolating & virus will exceed mass of known universe!

Fatality rate also greatly overstated. Because there are so few test kits, those who die with respiratory symptoms are tested for C19, but those with minor symptoms are usually not. Prevalence of coronaviruses & other colds in general population is very high!

More Tweets from Elon on Twitter:

Ships with a lot of people & limited medical facilities are a serious issue

 

[Matias]

No they did not. But the external oxygenation of blood outside the body sounds like it will be very hard to replicate at scale, with quite obvious supply constraints on the necessary equipment.

ECMO is a niche solution. It needs special equipment and also specialist doctors and nurses and technicians.

As I don’t work in that field, I don’t have any numbers, but my WAG is, that in any modern rich country its availability is so small, that it doesn’t have any meaningful effect in large outbreak.

 

[renim]

So far, Germans are shrugging it off as a flu. There's definitely something going on either in the diets or the genes. Germany should be one of the worst hit country in Europe due to higher percentage of smokers. Yes, they have a lot of infections, but not particularly high compared to spain or france.

Italy has a fashion industry. Fashion includes clothes making. Cloth making includes illegal migrants from China.

Within the european context, expect inital Covid19 infections to colocate where clothes are sewn.

(Not relevant to america/australia/SK/japan) etc

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Italy has a fashion industry. Fashion includes clothes making. Cloth making includes illegal migrants from China.

Within the european context, expect inital Covid19 infections to colocate where clothes are sewn.

(Not relevant to america/australia/SK/japan) etc

Patient Zero in Italy was not identified as an illegal immigrant from China but as an Italian businessman who had travelled to China.

 

[DrMazeppa]

After the latest move by the Italian government, there will be almost free money shorting stocks on Monday.
The level of confusion and unclear information all across the globe is astounding.
I am surprised there wasn't a common international plan already in place for scenarios like this virus.

 

[Matias]

yow! wonder what everyone ate, last nite??

(doubt it was the lobster)

View attachment 519305


but hey, look, on the bright side - looks like the tire center (oops, I mean tyre centre) is not busy right now!

What is this obsession people have with toilet paper? I honestly don’t understand why running out of toilet paper would be a life threatening situation.

 

[deffu]

Italy has a fashion industry. Fashion includes clothes making. Cloth making includes illegal migrants from China.

Within the european context, expect inital Covid19 infections to colocate where clothes are sewn.

(Not relevant to america/australia/SK/japan) etc

That's correct. There are a lot of immigrants from Wenzhou, China in Milan. Wenzhou is the epicenter city with largest outbreak outside Hubei province cause a large portion of people from Wenzhou live and do business in Wuhan, other parts of China and around the world. it's highly probable that patient 0 in Italy is from China and probably Wenzhou. Patient 0 has never been identified. Patient 1 in Italy ran marathons, went to football games and partied in carnivals. Patient 1 in S Korea went to a series of church masses. Patient 1 in Iran is a businessman having a lot of interactions with government officials. It seems to me weather there is a very social active super host makes a day/night different in case No.s.

Hopefully U.S only sees limited community transmission (no super host) despite close ties with China especially in its west coast states. Cause, obviously, Americans dont run marathons, dont party and defenitly dont go to church.

 

[cwerdna]

What is this obsession people have with toilet paper? I honestly don’t undwhy running out of toilet paper would be life threatening situation.

It's not life threatening, but imagine being forced to self-quarantine at home, or mostly needing to stay at home but then there are supply shortages due to production problems (workers can't make it to plants) or delivery probs (truck drivers stricken) or people panic buying.

Fortunately, even though two Costcos that I went to the previous weekend were cleaned out of TP and bottled water, the other stores and a supermarket I went to had plenty of both.

There are US tech companies who are strongly encouraging or requiring people to work at home (for some cases, it's just specific countries). I'm in a county w/32 confirmed COVID-19 cases at the moment. This is with the disastrous lack of test kits, almost nobody has been tested and even some folks who have symptoms or may have been exposed are facing roadblocks to being tested.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

After the latest move by the Italian government, there will be almost free money shorting stocks on Monday.
The level of confusion and unclear information all across the globe is astounding.
I am surprised there wasn't a common international plan already in place for scenarios like this virus.

The situation in the US is a train wreck in slowmotion. It’s crystal clear where the country is headed: full quarantine of towns, cities and even states. China and Italy are simply 5-6 weeks and 2-3 weeks ahead of where the US will be going. At the end of March this will be a full blown crisis. Maybe not so much because of how dangerous (or not) this virus is, but because of how people react to it. And the government will have no choice but to follow suit, with Trump kicking and screaming as he sees re-election slip out of his hands.

 

[Fact Checking]

Patient 1 in S Korea went to a series of church masses.

BTW., with yesterday's and today's sharp drop in new cases I believe South Korea is past the worst and will probably reach containment like China:

# "South Korea" new daily infections log:
Feb 15:     0 new cases,     27 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 16:     1 new cases,     28 total cases ( +3.4%)
Feb 17:     1 new cases,     29 total cases ( +3.3%)
Feb 18:     1 new cases,     30 total cases ( +3.2%)
Feb 19:    27 new cases,     57 total cases (+46.5%)
Feb 20:    53 new cases,    110 total cases (+47.7%)  #
Feb 21:    96 new cases,    206 total cases (+46.3%)  ###
Feb 22:   232 new cases,    438 total cases (+52.8%)  ########
Feb 24:   397 new cases,    835 total cases (+47.4%)  #############
Feb 25:   144 new cases,    979 total cases (+14.6%)  #####
Feb 26:   284 new cases,   1263 total cases (+22.4%)  #########
Feb 27:   505 new cases,   1768 total cases (+28.5%)  #################
Feb 28:   571 new cases,   2339 total cases (+24.4%)  ###################
Feb 29:   813 new cases,   3152 total cases (+25.7%)  ############################
Mar 01:   586 new cases,   3738 total cases (+15.6%)  ####################
Mar 02:   599 new cases,   4337 total cases (+13.8%)  ####################
Mar 03:   851 new cases,   5188 total cases (+16.4%)  #############################
Mar 04:   435 new cases,   5623 total cases ( +7.7%)  ###############
Mar 05:   467 new cases,   6090 total cases ( +7.6%)  ################
Mar 06:   505 new cases,   6595 total cases ( +7.6%)  #################
Mar 07:   449 new cases,   7044 total cases ( +6.3%)  ###############
Mar 08:   272 new cases,   7316 total cases ( +3.7%)  #########

Based on the China example new infections in South Korea will probably take another 5-10 days to drop below 1%. Total number of patients might stay below or near 10,000.

Unfortunately Italy and France are still not past the early exponential phase:

# "Italy" daily new infections log:
Feb 20:     0 new cases,      1 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 21:    16 new cases,     17 total cases (+88.8%)
Feb 22:    59 new cases,     76 total cases (+76.6%)  #
Feb 24:   149 new cases,    225 total cases (+65.9%)  ##
Feb 25:    97 new cases,    322 total cases (+30.0%)  #
Feb 26:   131 new cases,    453 total cases (+28.8%)  ##
Feb 27:   208 new cases,    661 total cases (+31.4%)  ####
Feb 28:   246 new cases,    907 total cases (+27.0%)  ####
Feb 29:   247 new cases,   1154 total cases (+21.3%)  ####
Mar 01:   572 new cases,   1726 total cases (+33.1%)  ###########
Mar 02:   354 new cases,   2080 total cases (+17.0%)  #######
Mar 03:   495 new cases,   2575 total cases (+19.2%)  #########
Mar 04:   605 new cases,   3180 total cases (+19.0%)  ############
Mar 05:   784 new cases,   3964 total cases (+19.7%)  ###############
Mar 06:   821 new cases,   4785 total cases (+17.1%)  ################
Mar 07:  1249 new cases,   6034 total cases (+20.6%)  ########################

Italy has shown a good chance for containment 2-3 days ago, but has grown again yesterday. The additional containment measures announced yesterday and today will certainly help.

The outbreak in France is still growing:

# "France" daily new infections log:
Feb 24:     0 new cases,     10 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 25:     2 new cases,     12 total cases (+15.3%)
Feb 26:     4 new cases,     16 total cases (+23.5%)
Feb 27:    20 new cases,     36 total cases (+54.0%)  #
Feb 28:    19 new cases,     55 total cases (+33.9%)  #
Feb 29:    43 new cases,     98 total cases (+43.4%)  ##
Mar 01:    31 new cases,    129 total cases (+23.8%)  #
Mar 02:    61 new cases,    190 total cases (+31.9%)  ###
Mar 03:    21 new cases,    211 total cases ( +9.9%)  #
Mar 04:    73 new cases,    284 total cases (+25.6%)  ####
Mar 05:   138 new cases,    422 total cases (+32.6%)  ########
Mar 06:   190 new cases,    612 total cases (+30.9%)  ###########
Mar 07:   337 new cases,    949 total cases (+35.4%)  ####################

At this rate both countries are trending to have more than 10,000 patients in the end - larger outbreaks than South Korea. (Note that I included March 8 in the South Korea log because we have all the reports there already due to their time zones and the drop to 7.7% is real and encouraging. Today's data is not complete for Italy and France yet.)

Does anyone know how the cases in France are clustered, and how good epidemiological controls and the health care infrastructure are in those places?

Germany is in better shape:

# "Germany Bavaria" daily new infections log:
Feb 24:     0 new cases,     15 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 25:     2 new cases,     17 total cases (+11.1%)
Feb 26:     8 new cases,     25 total cases (+30.7%)
Feb 27:    22 new cases,     47 total cases (+45.8%)  ##
Feb 28:    26 new cases,     73 total cases (+35.1%)  ###
Feb 29:     5 new cases,     78 total cases ( +6.3%)
Mar 01:    51 new cases,    129 total cases (+39.2%)  ######
Mar 02:    35 new cases,    164 total cases (+21.2%)  ####
Mar 03:    38 new cases,    202 total cases (+18.7%)  ####
Mar 04:    59 new cases,    261 total cases (+22.5%)  #######
Mar 05:   138 new cases,    399 total cases (+34.5%)  ################
Mar 06:   239 new cases,    638 total cases (+37.4%)  ############################
Mar 07:   161 new cases,    799 total cases (+20.1%)  ###################

At this rate the outbreak in Germany might stay below 5,000 patients (maybe even below 2,000), but it's obviously too early to call.

Switzerland seems to be doing well too:

# "Switzerland" daily new infections log:
Feb 28:     0 new cases,      7 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 29:    10 new cases,     17 total cases (+55.5%)  ##
Mar 01:     6 new cases,     23 total cases (+25.0%)  #
Mar 02:     6 new cases,     29 total cases (+20.0%)  #
Mar 03:     7 new cases,     36 total cases (+18.9%)  #
Mar 04:    43 new cases,     79 total cases (+53.7%)  #########
Mar 05:     7 new cases,     86 total cases ( +8.0%)  #
Mar 06:   123 new cases,    209 total cases (+58.5%)  ############################
Mar 07:    54 new cases,    263 total cases (+20.4%)  ############

But the sample size is not overly large for Switzerland to be sure it has peaked yet - we'll need another 2-3 days. Given the relatively tidy social structure and the well mapped immigrant community I'd expect the outbreak to be under control relatively swiftly.

Austria is so-so:

Feb 27:     1 new cases,      1 total cases (+50.0%)
Feb 28:     3 new cases,      4 total cases (+60.0%)  ##
Feb 29:     3 new cases,      7 total cases (+37.5%)  ##
Mar 01:     5 new cases,     12 total cases (+38.4%)  ####
Mar 02:     4 new cases,     16 total cases (+23.5%)  ###
Mar 03:     6 new cases,     22 total cases (+26.0%)  #####
Mar 04:     5 new cases,     27 total cases (+17.8%)  ####
Mar 05:     8 new cases,     35 total cases (+22.2%)  #######
Mar 06:    18 new cases,     53 total cases (+33.3%)  #################
Mar 07:    24 new cases,     77 total cases (+30.7%)  #######################

Probably hasn't peaked yet but might be close to it.

These are the most directly affected neighbors and trading partners of Italy.

Farther away European countries seem to be less affected: the outbreak in Norway is still growing, Sweden shows signs of having peaked two days ago (but still too early to call).

Finally, the U.K. is looking relatively good as well, so far:

Feb 25:     0 new cases,     10 total cases (   +0%) 
Feb 26:     0 new cases,     10 total cases (   +0%) 
Feb 27:     3 new cases,     13 total cases (+21.4%) 
Feb 28:     4 new cases,     17 total cases (+22.2%) 
Feb 29:     3 new cases,     20 total cases (+14.2%) 
Mar 01:    13 new cases,     33 total cases (+38.2%)  ##
Mar 02:     4 new cases,     37 total cases (+10.5%) 
Mar 03:    10 new cases,     47 total cases (+20.8%)  #
Mar 04:    34 new cases,     81 total cases (+41.4%)  ######
Mar 05:    29 new cases,    110 total cases (+26.1%)  #####
Mar 06:    48 new cases,    158 total cases (+30.1%)  #########
Mar 07:    42 new cases,    200 total cases (+20.8%)  ########

(But even at 20% it's too early to call - Italy relapsed too.)

 

[aubreymcfato]

Italy poised to lock down Lombardy after coronavirus jump

It looks like one quarter of all 60 million Italians will be in lock down until April 3.

Yep. I'm in one of the red zones, I'll keep you posted.
Things are unraveling here, as I said before it's not pretty.