Coronavirus

[dfwatt]

In that case I am not sure what you are saying in regards to my original post. It seems we agree.

Well, I think it's been a bit of an oscillation, and where we have to assume that some of Trump's posture change very recently may have come from someone "yanking him up short" with a stern warning. That often backfires with Trump, but perhaps someone had the message optimally framed to alarm him without inducing his normal 'narcissistic injury' rage.

So I think we've seen initial suppression, followed by increasing pushback, and finally, (I am guessing) CDC folks esp. Fauci basically threatening to either walk or publicly and explicitly contradict the idiotic chief exec. I suspect that Fauci struggled with the dilemma represented by how loss of access and any position of influence might be worse than having his message severely diluted/washed away, but at some point you become aware that you have made a deal with the devil, and if you stay silent or complicit in the BS too long, you are part of the problem. So the dynamics of the CDC/WH interaction have likely been complex, and not easily captured by the simple statement that the CDC dropped the ball.

 

[MXLRplus]

Interesting side effect: A large medical customer is setting us up for a "desktop remote quality audit". Normally a human auditor or two do this on-site followed up by annual email surveillance audits. While this seems to be a no-brainer, nobody has tried this before that I'm aware of. Kills two birds with one stone, it reduces costs, and avoids virial transmission. Whether this was triggered by current events or not is unknown.

 

[traxila]

Well, I think it's been a bit of an oscillation, and where we have to assume that some of Trump's posture change very recently may have come from someone "yanking him up short" with a stern warning. That often backfires with Trump, but perhaps someone had the message optimally framed to alarm him without inducing his normal 'narcissistic injury' rage.

So I think we've seen initial suppression, followed by increasing pushback, and finally, (I am guessing) CDC folks esp. Fauci basically threatening to either walk or publicly and explicitly contradict the idiotic chief exec. I suspect that Fauci struggled with the dilemma represented by how loss of access and any position of influence might be worse than having his message severely diluted/washed away, but at some point you become aware that you have made a deal with the devil, and if you stay silent or complicit in the BS too long, you are part of the problem. So the dynamics of the CDC/WH interaction have likely been complex, and not easily captured by the simple statement that the CDC dropped the ball.

My statement was "because of the incompetence of all the authorities involved who were supposed to take care of this." Where do you see me singling out the CDC? I was referring mostly to the FED, STATE and LOCAL executives, who have been idiots across the board.

 

[Doggydogworld]

My response would be to again reiterate that IFR appears to be far lower than 1, but how much lower is unclear, due to how unclear the ratio of diagnosed to undiagnosed cases is. And will vary from location to location due to a number of factors, including but not limited to how well the healthcare system can deal with severe cases, the ratio of old to young people in the general population, how cases are biased between the old and young in that population, and on and on.

Roughly zero undiagnosed cases on Diamond Princess, so IFR = CFR = 1%+ (tracking has been spotty lately). Small, skewed sample.
Low undiagnosed cases in Korea, where formerly low CFR is now 0.97% and climbing as cases continue to resolve.

I don't trust China's non-Hubei numbers enough to bother doing the math. IMHO Xi is basically Trump with vastly more actual power.

I'm comfortable using ~1.0% IFR for back of the envelope work. Multiples higher if you exceed ICU capacity.

Well, I think it's been a bit of an oscillation, and where we have to assume that some of Trump's posture change very recently may have come from someone "yanking him up short" with a stern warning. That often backfires with Trump, but perhaps someone had the message optimally framed to alarm him without inducing his normal 'narcissistic injury' rage.

So I think we've seen initial suppression, followed by increasing pushback, and finally, (I am guessing) CDC folks esp. Fauci basically threatening to either walk or publicly and explicitly contradict the idiotic chief exec. I suspect that Fauci struggled with the dilemma represented by how loss of access and any position of influence might be worse than having his message severely diluted/washed away, but at some point you become aware that you have made a deal with the devil, and if you stay silent or complicit in the BS too long, you are part of the problem. So the dynamics of the CDC/WH interaction have likely been complex, and not easily captured by the simple statement that the CDC dropped the ball.

Trump's #1 barometer is the stock market. He was gloating about the big jump late Friday and was bizarrely ebullient in the Sunday press conference after the Fed cut to 0%. When the Dow fell 3000 points yesterday I think Dr. Fauci and a few others were finally able to penetrate his thick skull with a dose of reality.

IMHO the CDC has been sidelined. Did anyone watch Admiral Giroir in the Sunday briefing? It sounds like the military, FEMA and Roche/Thermo Fisher put together a large scale testing program. I have much more faith in them than the CDC at this point. Hopefully not misplaced faith.

 

[KSilver2000]

That I would suspect is a very short term problem with tests now being produced and shipping in volume.

Next solve is for the hospital groups to figure out how to increase frequency of testing (and to make it more efficient). Speed to process the result is also important.

Increasing frequency of testing is just a matter of relaxing the testing guidelines, which will be reduced as more tests are available.
But as you mentioned, speed to result is equally, if not more, important. It’s easier to mass produce tests, not as quick to run the tests at anywhere remotely near the rate of test kit production.

And I think each negative test result should come with a big warning saying that a test is not the same as a vaccine.

Isn’t Florida the state where all old American people go to retire? The behavior of the youth doesn’t predict anything good.

A bunch of irresponsible youth is exactly what puts a community at higher risk. The beach goers are not exactly quarantined to the beaches.

 

[X Fan]

In case you’re not aware of the leadership that the USA has tasked to mitigate this: this woman is amazing:

She's a legend in the fight against HIV. Now Dr Deborah Birx is taking on Covid-19

 

[jbcarioca]

Here is a brief article that expresses my personal opinions perfectly:
In the coronavirus pandemic, we're making decisions without reliable data

As for those among us who happily denigrate epidemiology I would only offer that sound practice tends to assume no preventive measures, in the first instance. Such analysis does tend to produce alarmingly high numbers. The primary purpose is not to make a prediction, but to establish the potential value of remediation.

Sadly, in the present instance remediation is being driven by fear and panic, which in turn accentuate the cost of remediation.

In the case of SARS-CoV-2 the best current data, as discussed in the article, suggest that both morbidity and mortality disproportionately affect already seriously ill people with limited life expectancy anyway.

Most typical influenza cause morbidity among young and healthy people, but mortality continues to be disproportionately among those already impaired.

It is too soon to know; there is insufficient data. The attached article expresses that far better than can I.

Shorthand: Elon is correct, but political decision makers are mostly not now driven by information but by politics.

Were the global epidemiological network and processes of half a century ago still in place the present outcomes and decisions would have been far different. Of course the decision makers then were acutely aware of WWII and nuclear weapons, most even remembered about the 1918 influenza. I fear we will repeat these non-rational outcomes regularly unless the global cooperation dramatically improves. Bluntly: populist nationalists always produce disastrous outcomes. One never knows when or how but it is inevitable.

If the world is very lucky the worst effects of this will be global recession and a swarm of gigantic national deficits, led by the US with two trillion dollar deficit this year, if not more. This profligacy is exacerbated by all the share buybacks of public companies.

 

[N5329K]

Dr. John goes under the hood and seeks to answer the question, "Fever...Good or Bad?"

Robin

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

, suggest that both morbidity and mortality disproportionately affect already seriously ill people with limited life expectancy anyway.

One issue is that without action, when the healthcare system collapses, that will affect the mortality rate of anyone who enters the hospital for any reason during that time. That can affect young and old alike. So it's not limited to just older people. Also it's no walk in the park for people 40 and older, either, from what I can see. The mortality rate is surprisingly high.

 

[AudubonB]

With everybody in lockdown having nothing better to do than read and post on TMC, this thread will become our day job.

MMmmmmmmmmm.......

In sync with the email we just received from Costco's CEO regarding limiting the number of popular items per customer -



Dear Costco TMC Member,

As the global effect of coronavirus (COVID-19) continues to evolve, Costco is firmly committed to the health and safety of our members and employees, and serving our communities TMC is firmly committed to the mental health of its Moderators.

As many of you have noticed, we’ve experienced a surge of business posts during this time. As a result, we’ve taken steps to control the number of members in our warehouses threads and asked that members and employees practice social distancing responsible writing. We’ve also reduced some services Moderator mild-mannerism.

We’ve increased our protocols in sanitizing surfaces posts, including shopping cart handles, merchandise shelves, front-end belts and registers. Limits have been implemented on certain items kinds of posts to help ensure more members are able to access the merchandise posts and information they want and need keep their own hair, keyboards and sanity. Our buyers and suppliers Moderators are working to ensure in-demand merchandise topics as well as everyday favorites are available in our warehouses various forums.

As new information becomes available, management is keeping warehouse staff Moderators well informed so they can respond swiftly and appropriately. While the circumstances continue to change and we modify our operations as necessary, we thank you for your patience and cooperation. As new developments occur, be assured we are committed to taking care of our members and employees and to our mission of providing low prices, quality merchandise discussions and exceptional service.

We extend our sincere thanks to Costco TMC members and employees readers worldwide for their ongoing support and loyal dedication during this challenging time.

Thank you,
Craig Jelinek
President and CEO, Costco Wholesale

Lord Vetinari

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Yeah as I posted earlier (which of course received the expected vehement disagreement from those who don't prefer heresy), I didn't think his tweets would age well. "The coronavirus panic is dumb." Hmm.

I assume this is going to mean a production halt. Guess we'll see what they come up with. I guess essential activities would include work, so maybe all is well (???). I have no idea (also, all is not well, obviously). EDIT: reading the article below, sounds like it is going to require a stop to production unless they have something up their sleeve...

No matter what they are doing, hope they are finding some ways to keep their workers screened and safe. They have experience with this - we'll see how it goes.

Good to see that Elon is starting to transition to actual solutions to coronavirus on his Twitter account. Looks like production is continuing at the factory for now. I hope they can keep their workers safe (extra cleaning protocols in common areas, bathrooms, high touch areas, etc.), and keep those Model Ys coming. Obviously that is beneficial for everyone as long as it can continue safely without making things worse. We don't need a superspreading event at the Tesla factory...

 

[X Fan]

Isn’t Florida the state where all old American people go to retire? The behavior of the youth doesn’t predict anything good.

Yes, particularly in the southern part of Florida (West Coast-Sarasota down through Naples; East Coast-Vero Beach to Miami). However, "northern" part of Florida including Jacksonville, Tampa, Orlando has a much greater percent of industry and young people.

I'd prefer that Governor put out a statement closing of restaurants (except take out), health clubs, etc. to protect the elderly in the State. However, with Cruises stopped and NY travelers reduced (a current hot spot) it's possible Florida will not see an explosion in cases.

 

[bkp_duke]

Time for a little levity

 

[linux-works]

I say for the 3rd time, its TIME TO GET RID OF THE TSA!

America Is a Sham

everyone with half a brain understands that this is a concept known as 'security theater'. have people believe that some real security is in place, when its really all for show. a lie. limiting our freedom, conditioning us to follow orders and not to question authority.

tsa is now allowing a LOT of hand sanitizer to be brought on board.

in fact, they are allowing a LOT of liquid in bottles that they completely assured us that, unless we stopped everyone, plains would explode.

not one plane exploded. and we're sick and tired of the BS from TSA.

lets use this situation to pull back all the bad law changes we made, when we were 'scared little girls'.

we have bigger fish to fry, now. lets take this opportunity to fix things that are long overdue for fixing.

 

[EVNow]

My response would be to again reiterate that IFR appears to be far lower than 1, but how much lower is unclear, due to how unclear the ratio of diagnosed to undiagnosed cases is. And will vary from location to location due to a number of factors, including but not limited to how well the healthcare system can deal with severe cases, the ratio of old to young people in the general population, how cases are biased between the old and young in that population, and on and on.

The best study on this todate, IMO, has been the Imperial College study that came out yesterday. 0.9% is what they estimate for IFR.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Here are some other useful numbers that IDM is using.

Epidemiological Parameters Table

 

[NicoV]

However, with Cruises stopped and NY travelers reduced (a current hot spot) it's possible Florida will not see an explosion in cases.

In Europe we also had various reasons to not see an explosion of cases. Look how that worked out!

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Expecting tirade from Elon in 3 . . . 2 . . . 1 . . .

I suppose that we will finally see “Beyond Ludicrous” mode soon.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Pop-up drive-thru test center in Marrero, LA. This is the military/FEMA program I mentioned earlier. We're supposed to see a couple thousand of these start up over the next week or so. Some in denser areas will also offer walk-up testing. They're designed to take 2000 samples per day, though I'm sure throughput is much lower when they first start up.

 

[EVNow]

Most comprehensive report of medicines for Coid-19 I've seen …

https://tinyurl.com/trfjnwd

 

[ReddyLeaf]

In my memory this one probably tops all the market crashes I've experienced. Because all the actions and reactions have consequences in real life.

Life impact is greater than 2008. so I am starting to contemplate if that leads to financial market impact also greater than 2008.

Exactly! Glad you’ve figured it out. Since late January, I’ve been predicting a 6-12 mo, 50% hit to the world’s economic output. I don’t really know what that all means, but luckily and coincidentally I rebalanced my non-ROTH portfolio on Feb 19th, effectively pulling $50k out of stocks and into bonds, stable value, and cash. I’m less than 30% in stocks now, but have bought back stocks in my ROTH IRA, in small $5k chunks, on three of the recent drops. I’m patient, but still a bit disappointed with recent rebounds, because I still have quite a bit of dry powder.