Coronavirus

[Sean Wagner]

#ITALY
Sadly, there's been a slight rise in deaths again, to 475. Giulio Gallera, Lombardy's health commissioner [not sure that's the correct translation for "assessore"], said in an interview with La Reppublica that people in their 40's and 50's were requiring ventilators too. He's called for a complete shutdown, as hospitals are "at the end of their tether".

Spare a thought for the doctors who wake up to a new day of having to decide who gets a chance to live, and who dies. They deserve and need the fullest support of their communities.

Edit: incidentally, I'm just a few miles away now from a hospital across the border in France where there's been a hotspot and patients must be flown out due to a case overload.

I still think that massive, repeated testing on top of the usual measures is the fastest and also least costly way to get a grip on the pandemic.

 

[EV Promoter]

You have to look at the daily percent change, not numerical change. For example, on Mar 7 there were 5883 positives and on Mar 8 there were 7375, a daily gain of 1492. Positives went from 27,980 yesterday to 31,506 today, a gain of 3526. Certainly, +3526 is worse than +1492, correct? Nope. As a percent, the Mar 7-8 gain was 25.3% while the Mar 16-17 gain was 12.6%. The spread has been cut in half in ten days. The new daily gain amount will probably level off and start falling within a week.

Do you realize that the medical Council yesterday just declared that the positives must be in reality at the least 5 times the nr indicated here, and any comparison with it doesn't give you a clue? All we are left is looking to the daily absolute number.
It is very unfortunate that we just sent half million kit test to US because we don't have enough labs for the analysis, the lack of testing is the real problem now in Italy, cause it highly reduce the understanding of the situation.

Daily increase o positives @ 18 march

 

[Stretch2727]

Good article to put some perspective on this.

Could Coronavirus Cause as Many Deaths as Cancer in the U.S.? Putting Estimates in Context

 

[EV Promoter]

#ITALY

I still think that massive, repeated testing on top of the usual measures is the fastest and also least costly way to get a grip on the pandemic.

I can add the Italian first minister today announcement: the lockdown due to stop after a month, the 3th of april, is extended for another month, to the 6th of may. For the moment...

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Germany now thinking about a complete quarantene lockdown of entire Bavaria as people do not stay at home. This will be tough.
link

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Hospitals in Bergamo in Italy running out of oxygen for respirators. This is getting tough.


Emanuele Capobianco
@ecapobianco
My heart aches at seeing military convoys transporting dead bodies to cemeteries in #Italy. Pity for those souls who died alone, gasping for air in far away hospitals & who will be buried alone without relatives around them. Heartbreaking. #COVID19 #covid #coronavirus
@ifrc

7:09 vorm. · 19. März 2020 aus Versoix, Suisse·Twitter for iPhone

 

[bhzmark]

Some doctors are taking informed educated intelligent Bayesian actions based on best current information and not sitting on their hands waiting for RCTs in Nature.

Arun Sridhar on Twitter

 

[ev-enthusiast]

New numbers for Germany, just the numbers, read, think about it, act now: link

 

[cusetownusa]

Numbers are going to sky rocket here (US) also, now that testing is ramping up. They have a drive through testing center in my city and it sounds like they have been doing a lot of testing.

 

[SageBrush]

Do you realize that the medical Council yesterday just declared that the positives must be in reality at the least 5 times the nr indicated here, and any comparison with it doesn't give you a clue?

You can somewhat do an end-around that problem by following the trend of the fraction of tests that are positive. In effect, presume a random sampling of the cohort of interest.

 

[Causalien]

Dreamt about Remdesivir trial ending in success. Woke up and felt so sad after realizing it's a dream.

 

[SageBrush]

Disclaimer - A few weeks ago before things became bad my response was to pull back from the stock market by 25%. This means I'm a moron because I didn't do significantly more. So anything I say should be questioned. Ugh. I guess the good news is it should be easy have a 2-3 gain on the 25% if I'm not a complete idiot.

I'm in your group, although my path was a bit different. I bought back in too early

 

[traxila]

So glad to see widespread use of HCQ for COVID. Now we are going to see either results or will learn it really does not work.

I am optimistic that it has good effect, especially if given immediately on diagnosis. This, plus endless testing, can turn the tide on this miserable virus and have the globe back up in a couple of months.

testing testing testing what a fail by the USA on this.

 

[SageBrush]

The reality is that COVID-19 doesn't give a rat's behind what party you are, what country you are from (or state), what your skin color is, your sexual orientation or if you see it as a threat or blown out of proportion.

One of your politicians said that the refugees in the trump concentration camps are "non-people."
Your favorite sociopath calls the virus "Chinese" and "foreign."

Take your message to your leaders

 

[SageBrush]

Data through Mar 18

Every curve has an inflection point and the most affected countries have decelerations; We'll see if the R null continues to drop. It is interesting to note how similar the curves are outside Asia, just shifted.

 

[dhanson865]

 

[Bobfitz1]

IMO Tesla should start working on ways they can keep Fremont producing but so safely the county and state can't claim there is any public safety benefit to keep it shut down.
Tesla should stand up their own coronavirus testing, both PCM and tests to determine if virus is active or not in someone who has been infected weeks ago but has had no symptoms for 2 weeks or more. All employees working at Fremont should be tested as often as deemed necessary as well as all their family members. Drive though testing locations near places where employees reside should be set up to test and retest family members. Those drive through locations should also provide testing to county and local health authorities as their capacity grows. That is the carrot to get county and state officials to agree to allow plant to operate in 'safe mode'.

Tesla has the resources and brain power to do this. When they can demonstrate it works for Fremont, it could become the model for other large manufacturing factories. Shutting down 50% or more of businesses is what's needed right now. But ways must be developed to allow them to open safely and put people back to work putting money and goods into the economy rather than let it collapse into a lengthy and severe depression.

 

[azaz]

“Too many people making arguments of the form “extreme lockdown measures in China and Italy seem successful in preventing mass death therefore all this advocacy of extreme measures in the US to avert mass death is a panicky overreaction.”

this is what people like Musk don’t seem to understand. Deaths would be in the millions according to the experts, thus the need to take these drastic “panic” steps.

Matthew Yglesias on Twitter

 

[bkp_duke]

IMO Tesla should start working on ways they can keep Fremont producing but so safely the county and state can't claim there is any public safety benefit to keep it shut down.
Tesla should stand up their own coronavirus testing, both PCM and tests to determine if virus is active or not in someone who has been infected weeks ago but has had no symptoms for 2 weeks or more. All employees working at Fremont should be tested as often as deemed necessary as well as all their family members. Drive though testing locations near places where employees reside should be set up to test and retest family members. Those drive through locations should also provide testing to county and local health authorities as their capacity grows. That is the carrot to get county and state officials to agree to allow plant to operate in 'safe mode'.

Tesla has the resources and brain power to do this. When they can demonstrate it works for Fremont, it could become the model for other large manufacturing factories. Shutting down 50% or more of businesses is what's needed right now. But ways must be developed to allow them to open safely and put people back to work putting money and goods into the economy rather than let it collapse into a lengthy and severe depression.

The demand for cars is going to plummet. Tesla should be working on alternative production that allows their plant to stay open, such as ventilators.

 

[DanCar]

96% of the deaths in Italy are for people age 60 and over.
99% for those age 50 and over.
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Infografica_18marzo ENG.pdf