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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Just to add...I just read that one of my local hospitals now has onsite testing capabilities so that they can get results within hours versus days. Sounds like they will have a good amount of test (not sure what would be considered a sufficient amount though). Seems to be a big step in the right direction.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
The single most effective reaction has been that of South Korea, by far. That reaction was calm, rational, and included no mandatory lockdowns. Testing and quarantining has quite clearly worked best.
Amazing how many times we have a perfectly successful template right in front of our faces and ignore it.
They are also forced to triage criticial cases, where they likely prioritize the young and those without health conditions.
Italy prioritises younger patients for treatment, in a war-like triage to tackle coronavirus
Coronavirus: half of Dutch intensive care patients are under 50 - DutchNews.nl
Might be because more young people go skiing in the Alps(which was a hotspot for transmission), but we should be careful with extrapolating the Italien age figures...
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
I'm aware of Elon's tweets. By the time there is a shortage, it will take a week or longer to ramp up production for ventilators, and then time to ship them out to hospitals. By then we will be further along the exponential curve.
Anyone that criticizes Trump and his response to this should also note that their Lord and Savior Elon is falling into the same traps.
The county has already shutdown Tesla's production lines, they should take this opportunity to re-tool for alternative production and get ahead of this, instead of behind. It would also allow them to re-classify as "essential" and they could keep all of their employees employed, instead of 25%.
It doesn't matter what the "real" positive number is, only that the reported number is correlated with the "real" amount. If the real number goes up, the reported number needs to go up, and vice-versa. That allows you to see the underlying trends.
I have to assume that the reported number, at least early on, was related to the number of more serious cases (people who went to the doctor). If they start testing asymptomatic people (e.g. general screening) then the reported number will rise even though the real spread could be flat or declining.
I imagine we'll see large increases in reported cases here in the US in the coming days because testing is increasing.
Agreed, but we got so far behind due to lack of test availability that option really isn't open anymore.
The US only spends about three times as much per capita on health care as S. Korea so you can't expect world class results.
Tesla has not terminated any employees. They are all still "employed". Maybe you meant "doing productive work", but even that is misleading; the 25% doesn't include all the people able to work perfectly well from home (software, management, finance...)
I completely agree. I wasn't aware you'd read them, just thought it was funny you'd mentioned it and he had as well.
To me it is not unreasonable if Tesla waits for orders (actual orders from authorities to produce, or orders for product from some customer) before committing to retool and start manufacture. USA has (on pergament) religious freedom, of course, so prayers are not forbidden (only placebo).
Edited: And same goes for SpaceX, of course.
Tesla produces cars to order, not to inventory. If they continue to produce cars out of Fremont (as they appear to be doing, even today), it's because they have orders.
I agree that people are pausing buying big ticket items during this period. Why would you buy a new car if you don't know if you're going to have a job in a month? But Tesla is unusual, to say the least. They have a huge backlog of Model Y orders. Now a bunch of those are going to be deferred, but not all of them.
As far as switching to ventilators, you realize there are domestic (and international) ventilator manufacturers that have already ramped up production, right? Resmed is just one example in my neck of the woods. They also make CPAP machines, but have temporarily diverted those manufacturing resources to making hospital ventilators. They, and other manufacturers who know how to make ventilators, and have FDA approval, are making a bunch and selling them.
There is also a limit to how many ventilators the market can absorb. If you don't have enough ICU beds, and space for ICU beds, more ventilators won't help.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Beds are not a problem. Every hospital I worked in you could put a ventilator in any room in the hospital. There were always far fewer vents than beds.
There is no way in hell Tesla can make hospital grade, tested, and regulatory approved ventilators in a week. Where do they get the molds from? The expertise? The supplies? All component suppliers are already sending their supplies to existing ventilator manufacturers.
People are taking Elon at his word. I dare say he was being sarcastic and/or making a point that there isn't a ventilator shortage.
They have not shut down car production.
I don't think that is true anymore. It certainly isn't with Model 3/Y, they make batches of cars ship them out and then match them to orders. I'm not even sure it applies to S&X anymore. (That was part of why they got rid of all of the customization you could make.)
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Ahh. those special beds that have an 'ICU' bracelet attached ?
Agreed cars are no longer tailormade, but rest assured production will slow down if a significant drop in demand is sensed. And every car (almost) is connected to a downpayment a customer already paid, so if people need the money elsewhere they are likely to ask for their money back, signalling a "lost" sale.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
GM and Ford say they can do it (they didn't give a timeline). A vent is not actually that complicated a piece of equipment, except for the electronics (and I don't know where those will be sourced from). It's a servo air pump. Elon even tweeted that the work wasn't very hard. I'm sure if the gov wanted it done, they would force current manufs to share their designs (for which they would likely get a royalty for every unit Tesla/Ford/GM produced).
And, as you so pointed out, if it takes longer than a week to transition (I'm not necessarily arguing that), then they need to start sooner rather than later. Once we are behind this curve, people will simply die from lack of appropriate medical care.
We are already seeing, likely due to the US population's poor health in general, that 40-65 year olds are requiring higher levels of support than expected:
Nearly 40% of those hospitalized with coronavirus are younger than 54: CDC
Please, I wasn't making an argument about the finer points of manufacturing. Tesla has a daily view on orders, unlike traditional auto that sells through dealers. Tesla can see order flow in real time and adjust when necessary. If they are continuing to build cars, it is LIKELY that they have orders for them. It would be financial stupidity to continue manufacturing right now if they didn't have customers and the County is asking them to shut down production.
That hasn't been true for a few years now. They produce what they figure people will order in the region they are producing for.
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