Coronavirus

[Cosmacelf]

GM and Ford say they can do it (they didn't give a timeline). A vent is not actually that complicated a piece of equipment, except for the electronics (and I don't know where those will be sourced from). It's a servo air pump. Elon even tweeted that the work wasn't very hard. I'm sure if the gov wanted it done, they would force current manufs to share their designs (for which they would likely get a royalty for every unit Tesla/Ford/GM produced).

And, as you so pointed out, if it takes longer than a week to transition (I'm not necessarily arguing that), then they need to start sooner rather than later. Once we are behind this curve, people will simply die from lack of appropriate medical care.

We are already seeing, likely due to the US population's poor health in general, that 40-65 year olds are requiring higher levels of support than expected:
Nearly 40% of those hospitalized with coronavirus are younger than 54: CDC

You're ignoring my point that existing vent manufacturers have already increased production. And the whole FDA approval thing. I guess we will see if we ever see a Ford branded ventilator. Color me skeptical.

 

[JRP3]

The single most effective reaction has been that of South Korea, by far. That reaction was calm, rational, and included no mandatory lockdowns. Testing and quarantining has quite clearly worked best.

Amazing how many times we have a perfectly successful template right in front of our faces and ignore it.

Do we have anywhere near enough tests?

 

[bkp_duke]

That hasn't been true for a few years now. They produce what they figure people will order in the region they are producing for.

Bingo. Unlike BMW, which you can order a thousand different combinations for your custom ordered car, Tesla has very few potential configurations. I have a friend that works there and they do take an educated guess of demand (in addition to orders) and stockpile the cars to a limited extent that they think customers will be ordering. Of course with the Y they are catching up on orders, but they don't have a backlog of 3 orders anymore.

 

[bkp_duke]

You're ignoring my point that existing vent manufacturers have already increased production. And the whole FDA approval thing. I guess we will see if we ever see a Ford branded ventilator. Color me skeptical.

And I'm telling you those vent manufacturers will need ALL the help they can get. They could increase production 10-fold, and we likely will still have a shortage.

 

[Lessmog]

GM and Ford say they can do it (they didn't give a timeline). A vent is not actually that complicated a piece of equipment, except for the electronics (and I don't know where those will be sourced from). It's a servo air pump. Elon even tweeted that the work wasn't very hard. I'm sure if the gov wanted it done, they would force current manufs to share their designs (for which they would likely get a royalty for every unit Tesla/Ford/GM produced).

And, as you so pointed out, if it takes longer than a week to transition (I'm not necessarily arguing that), then they need to start sooner rather than later. Once we are behind this curve, people will simply die from lack of appropriate medical care.

We are already seeing, likely due to the US population's poor health in general, that 40-65 year olds are requiring higher levels of support than expected:
Nearly 40% of those hospitalized with coronavirus are younger than 54: CDC

You're ignoring my point that existing vent manufacturers have already increased production. And the whole FDA approval thing. I guess we will see if we ever see a Ford branded ventilator. Color me skeptical.

@bkp_duke, have you already started making ventilators in your garage? Why not -- don't see demand? Or no FDA license perhaps?

 

[jerry33]

Bingo. Unlike BMW, which you can order a thousand different combinations for your custom ordered car, Tesla has very few potential configurations. I have a friend that works there and they do take an educated guess of demand (in addition to orders) and stockpile the cars to a limited extent that they think customers will be ordering. Of course with the Y they are catching up on orders, but they don't have a backlog of 3 orders anymore.

I don't know about the U.S. (where sedans aren't that popular) but I'm pretty sure there are backlogs in some other countries (not all). At least that's what I get from the posts from folks in those countries.

 

[RDoc]

Everything I've read has said that spinning up a new ventilator production facility is many month's work.

 

[bkp_duke]

Everything I've read has said that spinning up a new ventilator production facility is many month's work.

If that is truly the case, then in our models of healthcare for this pandemic, we should not model in a very large increase in vent capacity. We're stuck with what we have, what's in storage that can be used/repaired, and what the current manufacturers can get out quickly.

 

[sparcs]

If that is truly the case, then in our models of healthcare for this pandemic, we should not model in a very large increase in vent capacity. We're stuck with what we have, what's in storage that can be used/repaired, and what the current manufacturers can get out quickly.

It seems like enabling the existing manufacturers to fix any bottlenecks in production is the only way to get through this.

None of these automakers even know what the bottlenecks are for ventilator production or have any expertise in the industry. Making one isn't the hard part. That's what makes Elon's statement so silly. He should know better than anyone to even try to insinuate that they could really help when it comes to volume production in a timely fashion. Their statements become a distraction if they don't know what they are getting into.

 

[SageBrush]

Everything I've read has said that spinning up a new ventilator production facility is many month's work.

It depends how many rules and regulations you want to bend. At their most basic vents are VERY basic devices. My WAG though is that the supply chain would be a nightmare. Not for the device, but for the non generic disposables.

 

[bkp_duke]

@bkp_duke, have you already started making ventilators in your garage? Why not -- don't see demand? Or no FDA license perhaps?

The FDA will grant emergency licenses to companies like Tesla/Ford/GM that have demonstrated proper manufacturing experience. That's exactly the point of the Defense Production Act that was invoked yesterday by the government - it cuts through the red tape in times of national emergency.

 

[Lessmog]

The FDA will grant emergency licenses to companies like Tesla/Ford/GM that have demonstrated proper manufacturing experience. That's exactly the point of the Defense Production Act that was invoked yesterday by the government - it cuts through the red tape in times of national emergency.

Thank you. I still believe it is mandatory for any mfg to see actual, specified demand first.

 

[bkp_duke]

It seems like enabling the existing manufacturers to fix any bottlenecks in production is the only way to get through this.

None of these automakers even know what the bottlenecks are for ventilator production or have any expertise in the industry. Making one isn't the hard part. That's what makes Elon's statement so silly. He should know better than anyone to even try to insinuate that they could really help when it comes to volume production in a timely fashion. Their statements become a distraction if they don't know what they are getting into.

The assumption is that a ventilator is a complicated piece of machinery. I know you probably don't have personal experience with one, but I do. They are basically a servo air pump. The hardest part is not making the air pumps. It's the electronics. Someone like Tesla would need to partner with a company that prints circuit boards (perhaps a raspberry Pi could be programmed to do things properly - just a thought).

They really are stupid simple machines compared to a Tesla.

 

[bkp_duke]

Thank you. I still believe it is mandatory for any mfg to see actual, specified demand first.

Great, let's look at Italy then. There's plenty of demand, not nearly enough supply. The military over there is using giant convoys to move the bodies now.

 

[dl003]

Everything I've read has said that spinning up a new ventilator production facility is many month's work.

You forgot Elon has friends in China who's been making ventilators. I'm sure he can get equipment here in no time

 

[jerry33]

The assumption is that a ventilator is a complicated piece of machinery. I know you probably don't have personal experience with one, but I do. They are basically a servo air pump. The hardest part is not making the air pumps. It's the electronics. Someone like Tesla would need to partner with a company that prints circuit boards (perhaps a raspberry Pi could be programmed to do things properly - just a thought).

They really are stupid simple machines compared to a Tesla.

And SpaceX (by extension Tesla) has more experience with this than GM or Ford. Goodyear might also be a potential supplier that has experience (or perhaps they make ventilators already. I have no idea of the current manufacturers names--not my area of expertise.)

 

[bkp_duke]

You forgot Elon has friends in China who's been making ventilators. I'm sure he can get equipment here in no time

Very true. If China is really past this pandemic as they claim to be, they should be able to crank up capacity on everything the world needs. Their chance to show their value to everyone.

 

[Lessmog]

Great, let's look at Italy then. There's plenty of demand, not nearly enough supply. The military over there is using giant convoys to move the bodies now.

As in, actual orders?
No, this subthread has overgrown its use.

 

[lascavarian]

Regarding medical device manufacturing for ventilators, there are production houses that specialize in medical device manufacturing. Medical device manufacturing requires specific certifications and quality standards. Big medical houses invent the device and market it but may sub out a lot of manufacturing work to these specialists.

The medical device subcontractors have approved suppliers, materials and sources that are already on an audit plan. The quality systems are in place and compliant and substantial. CE certification and compliance helps greatly.

There is good reason for these requirements. First do no harm.

An example would be:

Medical | Mack Molding – Injection Molding, Large Part Molding, Contract Manufacturing, Medical Device Manufacturing, Sheet Metal Fabrication and Rapid Prototyping

(not affiliated in any way but used Mack at one time)

I would guess that expanding to 24/7 manufacturing and adding production lines to these existing plants would be BY FAR most efficient and quick vs trying to stand up non-medical device manufacturers.

As for updating designs to accelerate manufacturing then SpaceX and Tesla could help. They might be able to pick up some work to free resources that can be quickly applied to making ventilators.

My 2 cents only.

 

[Lessmog]

Regarding medical device manufacturing for ventilators, there are production houses that specialize in medical device manufacturing. Medical device manufacturing requires specific certifications and quality standards. Big medical houses invent the device and market it but may sub out a lot of manufacturing work to these specialists.

The medical device subcontractors have approved suppliers, materials and sources that are already on an audit plan. The quality systems are in place and compliant and substantial. CE certification and compliance helps greatly.

There is good reason for these requirements. First do no harm.

An example would be:

Medical | Mack Molding – Injection Molding, Large Part Molding, Contract Manufacturing, Medical Device Manufacturing, Sheet Metal Fabrication and Rapid Prototyping

(not affiliated in any way but used Mack at one time)

I would guess that expanding to 24/7 manufacturing and adding production lines to these existing plants would be BY FAR most efficient and quick vs trying to stand up non-medical device manufacturers.

As for updating designs to accelerate manufacturing then SpaceX and Tesla could help. They might be able to pick up some work to free resources that can be quickly applied to making ventilators.

My 2 cents only.

This brings back bad memories of the Macchiarini scandal a few years ago, where a skilled surgeon took it on to make and install plastic tracheae into mainly healthy, young patients in order to make a mark in medical history. They all died. Horribly.. And he did make a mark.