Coronavirus

[jbcarioca]

Completely anecdotal here, so take it at face value. My wife's close friend here in SD has family in Wuhan. She says she doesn't believe the numbers being reported at all. She doesn't have any hard evidence for that, just what her family tells here there when they talk.

Another anecdote. My cousins spouse is from Wuhan and has family there. She says the same. As it happens my cousin was a missionary in Wuhan when he met his spouse. They are fundamentalist Protestants and have a visceral hatred for all things Chinese. There is no question in my mind but that minorities of whatever kind are statistically outliers, where ever they are in the world. A healthy dose of cynicism never seems out of place about most things.

The COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 questions are fraught in many respects, none more so than the astounding cost the world is paying to try to control something the consequences of which are actually unknown. Factually we have no idea where mortality rates might be no really do we understand propagation very well. None fo the data is yet mature anywhere, even if we had no issues at all with data integrity.

In this thread we are searching for a way to assess the impact all of this may have on our investments. W e don't know, but I am finding the debate here to be more useful than are others, including my statistical sites, which pretty much assume that all the data is as represented. Were that we could adjust data by POM (Probability of Misrepresentation).

 

[Causalien]

Keep the infected masses out of Canada. Perhaps Trudeau could ask trump for a wall ?

I hope this is not in preparation to annex our free communist healthcare.

Moving on, I think this virus will be remembered as the fortnight virus. As in, every fortnight, the norm around you transforms.
I initially was really pessimistic about the outcome in Canada as two weeks ago, our reaction to this virus were still as cocky-dissmissive as Brady Sluder in heat on Spring break.

Today I donned my PPE and ventured out into the red zone. I was greeted with the beautiful panoramic of an empty city in the middle of the day. Where 30% of people I encounter were wearing gloves and masks. Even the down trodden homeless were wearing makeshift masks from whatever material they can find. But for those heathens who wear no protection, I am hoping that my doomsday respirator and the reverberating sound it generates from my heavy breathing scared a few of the none mask-wearing ones into action to start protecting themselves.

My faith in Canada being able to get out of this relatively unscathed has been restored.

 

[jbcarioca]

How do explain that there have been 4,860 deaths in the Lombardy region of Italy which has a population of 10 million?

Good question. There are a three probable explanations. First, the region has a huge temporary population of tourists and business people, some of whom were diagnosed and treated locally. Second the region has tended to attract people for medical treatment from other regions. Third, several ski areas are known to have been sources of infections in other countries. Quite a few such people would logically end out treated in Lombardy. Fourth, many of the elderly people who live in retirement centers in Bergamo are actually from elsewhere and may not show in population data.
In short many of those deaths in Lombardy were probably of people not counted as Lombardy residents.
FWIW, I asked that question of a friend who was born in Bergamo and lived there all his life. Those were his four points. That said, the mortality rate among known residents is astounding. The system collapsed.

 

[sparcs]

has this county by county surveillance plan been discussed? Seems like there is some sort of active push by the US federal government to recover by Easter.

Trump plan calls for classifying coronavirus risk county by county

this is the part I really don't understand:

Trump’s reliance on surveillance testing appears to ignore the fact that the U.S. currently does not have a surveillance testing system in place.

 

[SageBrush]

They are fundamentalist Protestants and have a visceral hatred for all things Chinese.

Did I get that right ? People who hate Chinese went to China to proselytize the Chinese ?

 

[jbcarioca]

This is a very insightful article on what testing is actually needed to help manage the pandemic. Retweeted by Marc Lipsitch.

We need testing to be done in a surveillance framework that lets us interpret trends -excellent points from Zeke Emanuel and @Farzad_MD​

We need smart coronavirus testing, not just more testing - STAT

These techniques are pretty much standard in epidemiology, where testing is always sampling, one cannot test an entire population.It isn't even complex, but is very sensitive to knowing the details fo the population and understanding the probable transmission vectors. This has been done successfully since around 1900 with Yellow Fever when a man named Oswaldo Cruz began to do such things. Possibly others before him.

 

[SageBrush]

Good question. There are a three probable explanations. First, the region has a huge temporary population of tourists and business people, some of whom were diagnosed and treated locally. Second the region has tended to attract people for medical treatment from other regions. Third, several ski areas are known to have been sources of infections in other countries. Quite a few such people would logically end out treated in Lombardy. Fourth, many of the elderly people who live in retirement centers in Bergamo are actually from elsewhere and may not show in population data.
In short many of those deaths in Lombardy were probably of people not counted as Lombardy residents.
FWIW, I asked that question of a friend who was born in Bergamo and lived there all his life. Those were his four points. That said, the mortality rate among known residents is astounding. The system collapsed.

Sorry if this has been hashed out already -- is the age distribution of Lombardy infections known ?

 

[jbcarioca]

Did I get that right ? People who hate Chinese went to China to proselytize the Chinese ?

I can tell you don't know very many mssionaries!
Sadly, such is my very long heritage.
There is no contempt for the heathen that can match that of the true believer.
Sorry, I don't mean to offend anybody.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Good question. There are a three probable explanations. First, the region has a huge temporary population of tourists and business people, some of whom were diagnosed and treated locally. Second the region has tended to attract people for medical treatment from other regions. Third, several ski areas are known to have been sources of infections in other countries. Quite a few such people would logically end out treated in Lombardy. Fourth, many of the elderly people who live in retirement centers in Bergamo are actually from elsewhere and may not show in population data.
In short many of those deaths in Lombardy were probably of people not counted as Lombardy residents.
FWIW, I asked that question of a friend who was born in Bergamo and lived there all his life. Those were his four points. That said, the mortality rate among known residents is astounding. The system collapsed.

The question was directed to @TheTalkingMule.
I would guess that people coming to ski resorts are healthier than the average person. Same for tourists, business people or the vast majority of other people traveling.
I suppose you could claim that there was a bunch of medical tourism there before the outbreak which skewed the demographics. I'm very skeptical. Obviously they're not getting any medical tourism right now!

Simplistically:
Population = 10,000,000
Percentage of people infected = ?
Infected fatality rate = ?
Deaths from COVID-19 = 4,860
How does the math work out?

 

[jbcarioca]

Sorry if this has been hashed out already -- is the age distribution of Lombardy infections known ?

Yes it is but the data is pretty gross. It does skew very, very old. The nursing homes and retirement communities have been decimated, I'm told. I won't repeat the data I have been given because I don't think it is credible.

 

[sparcs]

USA 81,864 +13,653
Active cases 78,827

Looks like it's official. More cases than China. Wonder how long this 13k cases a day trend goes on....

 

[EVNow]

These techniques are pretty much standard in epidemiology, where testing is always sampling, one cannot test an entire population.It isn't even complex, but is very sensitive to knowing the details fo the population and understanding the probable transmission vectors. This has been done successfully since around 1900 with Yellow Fever when a man named Oswaldo Cruz began to do such things. Possibly others before him.

Yes - so why are we not doing it ?!?

Basically we (and loft of other countries, really) got 2 months of notice - since China notified WHO at the end of December to end of Feb when the disease really started spreading. Most of the countries completely botched up the response, probably slept through and did nothing. When the history is written there will be a long roll call of villains.

 

[X Fan]

I hope this is not in preparation to annex our free communist healthcare.

Moving on, I think this virus will be remembered as the fortnight virus. As in, every fortnight, the norm around you transforms.
I initially was really pessimistic about the outcome in Canada as two weeks ago, our reaction to this virus were still as cocky-dissmissive as Brady Sluder in heat on Spring break.

Today I donned my PPE and ventured out into the red zone. I was greeted with a beautiful panoramic of an empty town in the middle of the day. Where 30% of people I encounter were wearing gloves and masks. Even the down trodden homeless were wearing makeshift masks from whatever material they can find. But for those heathens who wear no protection, I am hoping that my doomsday respirator and the reverberating sound it generates from my heavy breathing scared a few of the none mask-wearing ones into action to start protecting themselves.

My faith in Canada being able to get out of this relatively unscathed has been restored.

lol: there are thousands of Canadians driving up from Florida as we speak (6 months max and back). Saw quite a bunch from Ontario and Quebec during our I75-I95 drive up to NC.

If I was the PM, I’d require everyone coming back to quarantine for 14 days.

btw: Superchargers are empty.

better stop them at the border...

 

[SageBrush]

has this county by county surveillance plan been discussed? Seems like there is some sort of active push by the US federal government to recover by Easter.
Trump plan calls for classifying coronavirus risk county by county

Modeling of epidemics is based on clusters -- infectious clusters, not political boundaries. So trump almost got something right.

in regard to lock-downs (from the link)

Trump, however, has suggested that experts who recommend extending the campaign are motivated by a desire to defeat him politically, and not by the desire to protect Americans from the life-threatening COVID-19 disease.

This is why trump is a dangerous psychopath

 

[HG Wells]

USA 81,864 +13,653
Active cases 78,827

Looks like it's official. More cases than China. Wonder how long this 13k cases a day trend goes on....

Don't think we will see 13K again.
16 to 17K tomorrow.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Wonder how long this 13k cases a day trend goes on....

Don't worry, not long at all. Assuming no significant testing constraints, we're headed to 30-40k cases a day next week. Then we'll really be cooking.

Go team?

 

[DanCar]

... Wonder how long this 13k cases a day trend goes on....

Not long, it will be 14K+ cases soon. Like yesterday.

 

[Causalien]

lol: there are thousands of Canadians driving up from Florida as we speak (6 months max and back). Saw quite a bunch from Ontario and Quebec during our I75-I95 drive up to NC.

If I was the PM, I’d require everyone coming back to quarantine for 14 days.

btw: Superchargers are empty.

better stop them at the border...

Yes and it will take another 21 days to indoctrinate these heathens into the church of the mask. As they were previously brainwashed by the sermons of the the orange one (It's just a flu bro). THE TRUDEAU's soothing voice will show them the light as he tells them: "Shhhh, it's ok. You don't have to pretend you love guns anymore."

But such is the Canadian way. Shorterm, we will all suffer together in our communist healthcare so that in the long term, we will all survive together. No one is to be denied their free healthcare.

 

[Muaddid]

If I was the PM, I’d require everyone coming back to quarantine for 14 days.

It's already the case, anyone coming back to Canada is to do a 14days quarantine.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6730541/coronavirus-canada-mandatory-isolation-border-crossers/

 

[SageBrush]

Yes it is but the data is pretty gross. It does skew very, very old.

Thanks.

Then we should take care before exptrapolating or comparing Lombardy to anywhere else.