Coronavirus

[lascavarian]

Play Monoply ?

Tennis suddenly has a strange social distancing advantage

 

[jhm]

Ok, results for 4/13, deaths came in a 23,640, below projected 24,048. This continues to shrink expected ultimate dated, now 61k.

2020-04-13 23,640
2020-04-14 25,477
2020-04-15 27,295
2020-04-16 29,085
2020-04-17 30,837
2020-04-18 32,543
2020-04-19 34,196
2020-04-20 35,793
2020-04-21 37,328
2020-04-22 38,799
2020-04-23 40,204

View attachment 532150

View attachment 532151

We had a big jump up on 4/14. Actual 26,047 vs day-ahead projection of 25,477. This boosts the ultimates to 73k.

Many of us anticipated that we'd see a bump up on Tuesday. I have be exploring some ways to incorporate periodic behavior into this model, but have not yet found a good solution that fits within this particular modeling paradigm. For example, including dummy variables for day of week into the regression of dlogN on logN leads to overstating the amplitude of day of week as logN gets large and also leads to negative growth rates before convergence to zero growth. So standard regression tricks for integrating periodic behavior do not work. It seems one may need to step outside of the linear regression framework to do this.

2020-04-14 26,047
2020-04-15 28,012
2020-04-16 29,967
2020-04-17 31,903
2020-04-18 33,810
2020-04-19 35,682
2020-04-20 37,511
2020-04-21 39,292
2020-04-22 41,022
2020-04-23 42,696
2020-04-24 44,311

 

[winfield100]

The US NIH is collecting volunteers for a 10k large seroprevalence study of presumed uninfected people.

NIH Begins Study to Quantify Undetected Cases of Coronavirus Infection | NIH: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

@SageBrush
As a retiree from NIH in 2016, spouse and I contacted
[email protected] (their email)
NCT04334954 clinical study
included phone number.

 

[mikevbf]

Here is a summary of NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital's update from yesterday:

"In china: as they have started to relax restrictions they are seeing a spike, which is what we don’t want.

Yesterday the president said that he is in charge of reopening, but it doesn’t square with previous information.

Here on the east coast governors are discussing how to reopen because the last thing we want to do is see a problem emerge again as we are seeing flattening

2,526 yesterday to 2,442 today—a huge decrease for us inpatient. Ventilator went from 757 to 733.

Testing:

We started focused on detection through swabs, and rapidly generated the volume that we needed.

The next phase is developing serological test. This allows us to test for antibodies in a person, helps to identify patients who are or were infected and are mounting an immune response to it.

We are going live with testing today—50-100 samples per day, and in a matter of a week 1000s of samples per day once we are fully automated.

We are dealing with a new virus, so we are still working on how to interpret results.

If we detect antibodies, and the patient is mounting an immune response 80% of the time we can detect that within 3-4 weeks of initial onset of symptoms. Sometimes, however, patients do not mount an immune response.

This will allow us to look at the prevalence of the virus in our community.

We don’t know how long antibodies will be protective, we don’t know if you will get it again.

PPE: N95 still in good supply, keep conserving them as needed.

Today, even for outpatient areas we are having people in direct caregiver roles wearing the N95, we are increasing our indications for N95."

 

[winfield100]

Actually for 99% of people it is like cold or flu.

It's sad what we're doing. We're making society weaker. I'm sure you've heard that kids who are exposed to more germs get sick less often as adults. It is being exposed to things that creates a robust human. If we are a society that aims to be isolated that only makes us weak. Weakness kills entire societies. Look at the Aztecs. The Spaniards came and the Aztecs did not have any natural immunity simply because they had not been exposed. So they all get smallpox, etc and die. The Spaniards had already become acclimated to many viruses. You can't hide from every risky thing. Every day we make risk / benefit decisions.

It has gotten so rediculous that hospitals across the country are cutting salaries and furloughing staff. Ironically, they need people to be sick in order to have a viable business. Some doctors are waking up to the sheer absurdity of the situation.

@dqd88
Please do not go into medicine except as a patient

 

[SDRick]

Sweden often comes up in discussions. Some interesting differences with uber diverse New York City. Apparently over 800 languages are spoken in Queens alone and many residents live in high risk multigenerational households. In Sweden, more than half the population lives in one person households with an obesity rate almost 40% less than America's. They are also less rebellious and likely hear and heed social directives.

 

[SageBrush]

Sweden often comes up in discussions. Some interesting differences with uber diverse New York City. Apparently over 800 languages are spoken in Queens alone and many residents live in high risk multigenerational households. In Sweden, more than half the population lives in one person households with an obesity rate almost 40% less than America's. They are also less rebellious and likely hear and heed social directives.

There are other important differences. E.g. tobacco abuse at ~ 10% is similar to the Western US but the Southern states are 15%

Between obesity and tobacco the CFR and CMR is going to be a lot higher in the USA compared to Sweden.

 

[jerry33]

1. Removal or frequent cleaning of commonly touched surfaces. Remove bathroom doors?

You absolutely don't want that (perhaps two layer automatic doors would be an alternative). The reason is bathroom doors give insects (flies) a place to wipe their feet before leaving.

 

[jhm]

Wrestling in a pool of purell and wearing face masks?

You might want to keep your fantasies to yourself. All in favor of good, clean, germ-free fun, though.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Here’s a YouTube video version of a Caltech presentation I watched a couple weeks back. It is presented at a layman’s level for the most part, so is a pretty good primer of how the virus works within the cell, and how it compares to HIV and other viruses (many differences of course).

 

[EVNow]

Today, even for outpatient areas we are having people in direct caregiver roles wearing the N95, we are increasing our indications for N95."

Wow - shows how unprepared we were for this pandemic - even though we got 2 months of notice !

BTW, something we don't talk about here much. Most of the primary care doctors are not taking office visits, even for kids.

 

[MXLRplus]

Sweden often comes up in discussions. Some interesting differences with uber diverse New York City. Apparently over 800 languages are spoken in Queens alone and many residents live in high risk multigenerational households. In Sweden, more than half the population lives in one person households with an obesity rate almost 40% less than America's. They are also less rebellious and likely hear and heed social directives.

Sweden might as well be a different planet than NY.

In the US, there is a fear of government health directives by the black population for good cause. The government sent healthcare workers into black communities to do medical experiments on them without notification. They claimed it was inoculations. While this happened two generations ago, they still remember; it's now part of their cultural history they tell their children.

People without green cards often work as Day Laborers, household staff, and gardeners. They often go to multiple places in a day, and use mass transit. They are vectors. That's not racist, many of them are from Europe.

New York has a very high population density for a Western country with many people renting in multistory buildings serviced by elevators which are petri dishes.

A heavy dependence on mass transit by all residents is another feature of NYC.

Obesity, diabetes, hypertension, AIDS, cancer, heart disease, are all lethality factors, but they don't spread viruses.

Sweden is more like Maine than NY.

 

[Dash-8]

@dqd88
Please do not go into medicine except as a patient

I wonder if Vlad's found this little discussion?
Putin’s Long War Against American Science

 

[EVNow]

Hopefully masks, gloves, distancing, cleaning common surfaces, training, temperature testing, etc... will have an affect.

Hmmm … how does testing & checking temperature have an effect on
- Infectious before symptoms appear
- asymptomatic
?

Masks & gloves do. But how will they handle lunch / break rooms ?

I wonder what they do in GF3. They should have some experience they can transfer to Fremont.

 

[EVNow]

Tennis suddenly has a strange social distancing advantage

Only people who survive this pandemic are socially awkward gamers.

 

[MXLRplus]

Wow - shows how unprepared we were for this pandemic - even though we got 2 months of notice !

BTW, something we don't talk about here much. Most of the primary care doctors are not taking office visits, even for kids.

Exactly the opposite for me. My doctors have emailed me notifying me they are open. So have all my solar suppliers.

We still are using nursing homes today to spread the virus. Workers lack PPE, and they live in the surrounding community. They are vectors, we have known it since Puget Sound in Feb, and we refuse to fix the problem even today. My niece who in the lead RN at a nursing home showed me what they finally received for masks, a 2008 production KN95 that is certainly not up to normal standards of design. Guess that's better than nothing. C19 was about 0 in our county until 3 nursing homes started generating corpses. We even had the workers abandon one nursing home, they were afraid of dying. Plus they make more not working.

 

[MXLRplus]

Only people who survive this pandemic are socially awkward gamers.

Have you seen a teen's gaming area? Most rats won't live there, it's too dirty.

 

[jerry33]

Masks & gloves do. But how will they handle lunch / break rooms ?.

I'd assume they do it the same way they do in China. Dividers separating each person. Disinfect after use.

 

[MXLRplus]

Needed to fix a door at home, so I had to venture into a Home Depot.

I'd give them an A- rating. Workers in masks restricted the numbers coming in. Only one entrance and exit. Workers inside the store were masked and keep people from bunching up. One checkout line with 6' markers. Line was long but moved fast. I was in and out in 8 minutes.

Why the A- not A? They were not requiring masks to enter store, but nearly all people were masked anyways. The mask compliance is working by suggestion instead of violence or punishment.

 

[EVNow]

I'd assume they do it the same way they do in China. Dividers separating each person. Disinfect after use.

One thing China has in abundance is cheap labor. Hopefully Tesla will hire a lot of new workers to do this kind of cleaning.