Do you really think eradication was ever a realistic possibility? Maybe if it was caught really early in China it could have been eradicated… once it went international and spread unnoticed for weeks I assumed that ship had sailed.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Yes I agree eradication doesn't seem possible any more. And I agree that reducing hospital loading is also the end goal. So that means getting to endemic status as safely and carefully as possible.
Even if we accept that this will be an endemic that we have to live with forever, delaying getting it as long as reasonably possible for as many people as possible will mean the hospitalizations can be spread out over more time to not overload the hospitals at particular peaks, and it will give more time for better vaccines and treatments to be developed.
Even accepting an endemic, vaccinating and masking etc will flatten the curve in a useful way, not just the curve of case counts, but the more important curves of hospitalizations and deaths and disabilities.
I don't understand why the doctors that Rogan has on his podcast (Attia and others) don't get this.
Even if we accept that this will be an endemic that we have to live with forever, delaying getting it as long as reasonably possible for as many people as possible will mean the hospitalizations can be spread out over more time to not overload the hospitals at particular peaks, and it will give more time for better vaccines and treatments to be developed.
Even accepting an endemic, vaccinating and masking etc will flatten the curve in a useful way, not just the curve of case counts, but the more important curves of hospitalizations and deaths and disabilities.
I don't understand why the doctors that Rogan has on his podcast (Attia and others) don't get this.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
No. As I said. With the wild type it was much more possible though (still impossible in most countries). Unfortunately once it adapted to humans after the animal crossover, it got better at spreading.
Correct.
Whether eradication remains a long-term possibility is TBD. Endemicity seems most likely but I think it is not a certainty. (Again, I definitely think it is far more likely to be endemic than not.) We’ll see how immunity plays out and how manageable control becomes once everyone has been infected or vaccinated multiple times. It will also depend on effective virulence at that point, too. Everyone has been wrong so the idea that this will cycle each year like influenza may also be wrong - I actually suspect it certainly will be wrong - it’s far too contagious to be seasonal like influenza, so I think we have to hope immunity works and stabilizes, driving down small r, and the virus runs out of mutation options which are compatible with high virulence.
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dhanson865
Well-Known Member
I notice that scale starts at 'normal' and goes to various degrees of overweight. (No country ranks as 'underweight?')
The countries I see in the 'normal' category I associate with food scarcity.
It is scary to think that we need malnourished people to bring the overall curve more into a 'normal' range for those countries.
So what they are saying is that "starvation diet" should be 'normal'? Most of the world eats too much?
Which country is 'healthier', Haiti or Dominican Republic?
Haiti compared to Dominican Republic
Haiti and Dominican Republic living comparison. Explore similarities and differences. The Taino - indigenous inhabitants of Hispaniola prior to the arrival of the Europeans - divided the island into five chiefdoms and territories. Christopher COLUMBUS explored and claimed the island on his...
www.mylifeelsewhere.com
This is curious:
The Dominican Republic vs Haiti Coronavirus cases: day by day comparison
Haiti is 1368 days behind the Dominican Republic in terms of the number of coronavirus cases per 100,000 people: 336 vs 6497. The Dominican Republic - 675,890 and Haiti - 34,667... See the table of by date comparison...
georank.org
But I would guess that could be due to lack of available testing in Haiti?
It shows 2.9% death rate in Haiti vs 0.96% in D.R.
Interesting place to compare given an Island split in half with very different demographics on either side.
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Hadn't quite sailed over the horizon at that point. Ability to eradicate depends on infectiousness amongst vaccinated populations.
Delta may have been the death blow to eradication strategies.
scottf200
Well-Known Member
Eric Topol @EricTopol
On January 6, 2021, we had 132,474 Covid patients in US hospitals. The peak. No vaccine effect.
On January 7, 2022, we have over 130,000 Covid patients in US hospitals. New peak tomorrow. Vaccination deficiency effect.
On January 6, 2021, we had 132,474 Covid patients in US hospitals. The peak. No vaccine effect.
On January 7, 2022, we have over 130,000 Covid patients in US hospitals. New peak tomorrow. Vaccination deficiency effect.
Early on the Chinese were trying to quietly eradicate it while publicly playing hide-the-ball. There are stories of two different Chinese business people coming to the US in 2019, getting sick, and Chinese people in hazmat suits taking them home. They knew there was a serious disease on the loose, but didn't tell anyone else until near the end of the year.
SARS was eradicated because aggressive measures kept it contained and it burned itself out like a contained wildfire. COVID had the added advantage of being able to spread asymptotically. People who didn't get ill or only got mildly ill were it's greatest ally. SARS never really had that.
When I saw this could spread asymptotically and had an incubation period as long as 14 days, I knew we were in trouble.
Ever since this broke out of Wuhan stopping it completely was going to be virtually impossible. The only chance we had was if we came up with a vaccine that was 100% effective or very close to it forever like we have with some other diseases like measles, polio, small pox, etc. And having it would give you similar permanent immunity.
But this virus has continued to mutate and immunity does not last forever. I've had it twice now (Feb 2020 and Dec 2021). Both times mild fortunately, but there does seem to be some long term damage to my breathing.
I expect that going forward we're going to see yearly outbreaks worldwide. In places like the United States the outbreaks will tend to track "indoor" season in a given region. That means a summer outbreak in the South and Winter in the North. We are developing new drugs to fight infections when they happen. We may eventually have something like Teraflu to take at the first signs of symptoms which will keep most people from developing a serious case. But going forward COVID season will always be worse than cold and flu season ever was. Unfortunately those with other health risks will be more likely to end up in the hospital and many will die every year. If you have underlying health problems, your life expectancy has been cut.
People with historically strong immune systems and no underlying health problems will probably live as long as they would have pre-COVID. Hopefully there will be a push develop to deal with lifestyle illnesses. Bill Maher has been talking about that since this pandemic began, but few others have taken up the cause.
At this point COVID is here to stay. Omicron may mutate into an even less deadly form, but it's unlikely we're going to get a variant that is less virulent. Omicron may have an R number greater than measles. If not, it's probably pretty close. That is what makes this a more dangerous endemic threat than cold and flu. But we have to make due with where we are. We can't go back and change things.
Governments around the world handled this differently. Some did amazingly bad, and others quite well, but in the end it wasn't the developed world governments that allowed this to become what it did. Omicron came out of Africa. It probably mutated into its final form in undeveloped areas where any kind of healthcare is provided by international charities. The governments in those countries are struggling just to keep people fed. There was never any hope that those governments could have done anything to curb the virus. It was as beyond them as the governments of Europe were able to control the Black Death.
I notice that scale starts at 'normal' and goes to various degrees of overweight. (No country ranks as 'underweight?')
The countries I see in the 'normal' category I associate with food scarcity.
It is scary to think that we need malnourished people to bring the overall curve more into a 'normal' range for those countries.
So what they are saying is that "starvation diet" should be 'normal'? Most of the world eats too much?
Which country is 'healthier', Haiti or Dominican Republic?
View attachment 753095
"In Dominican Republic you will be 21.6% more likely to be obese"Haiti compared to Dominican Republic
Haiti and Dominican Republic living comparison. Explore similarities and differences. The Taino - indigenous inhabitants of Hispaniola prior to the arrival of the Europeans - divided the island into five chiefdoms and territories. Christopher COLUMBUS explored and claimed the island on his...
This is curious:
It seems to show D.R. case counts much higher than Haiti.The Dominican Republic vs Haiti Coronavirus cases: day by day comparison
Haiti is 1368 days behind the Dominican Republic in terms of the number of coronavirus cases per 100,000 people: 336 vs 6497. The Dominican Republic - 675,890 and Haiti - 34,667... See the table of by date comparison...
But I would guess that could be due to lack of available testing in Haiti?
It shows 2.9% death rate in Haiti vs 0.96% in D.R.
Interesting place to compare given an Island split in half with very different demographics on either side.
High calorie national diets are a new phenomenon. I'm not sure where it is now, but I once had a book of historical maps that showed on one page the average caloric intake for each European country on the eve of WW II. Only one country had an intake we would consider "normal" today ~ 1800 calories. That was the Netherlands. Some countries like Poland were around 800 calories a day.
At the same time Americans enjoyed a diet on par with the Dutch. Even during colonial times the life expectancy in the American colonies was better than just about any country in Europe because food was more abundant. Even at that food got scarce in colder climates in the winter. Those dandelions in your lawn are a legacy of our early ancestors to North America. They are not native too North America, but were brought over from Europe to give a late winter food source for settlers. It was the first edible plant to be able to grow and mature as the ground defrosted, so it was planted everywhere settlers went.
I read somewhere years ago that when hit with the same life threatening disease, people with a BMI between 25 and 28 had the best chances of survival. They had a little extra padding to burn while fighting off the disease while not having so much that it made it more difficult to fight the disease. People with BMIs over 28 had much poorer outcomes than people with BMI's below 25.
Food insecurity is a problem humans have lived with since we first started walking upright. It's only been solved for a slice of the population in the last hundred years. We're hard wired to hoard calories when they are available. Some people seem to lack the instinct to hoard calories or somehow curb it, but most people have it. By middle age most adults in countries with abundant food are either overweight or taking measures to try and prevent being overweight. We're fighting a strong instinct that has been good for survival for most of our existence.
There is a book called A Utopia for Realists that looks at the history of utopias in literature and talks about our ideas going forward. The author points out that virtually all the utopias of the past paint a picture of the modern world where we have more than enough food to eat and are surrounded by devices that do the heavy labor for us.
Tuskegee happened in the 20s and 30s. Prior to the Nazis
Every time any friend or family from Asia (specifically, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore) comes to visit us, there are two things that everyone always mention about food in the US: portion size is big, and everything tastes like it has too much salt.
scottf200
Well-Known Member
Thread I ran across today and I checked out the article. Seems pretty serious and not necessarily being admitted for something else and if so then side effect perhaps(?).
Younger patients with COVID-19 filling Dayton Children's Hospital beds
DAYTON, Ohio (WKEF) -- Department of Health and Human Services data reveals Ohio has one of the largest increases of COVID-19 pediatric hospitalizations in the nation. Now, Dayton Children’s Hospital is sounding the alarm as they’re experiencing the highest number of children hospitalized to...
dayton247now.com
The experiment ran until 1972 though.
American food is often very high in sugar too, though the Japanese can have a sweet tooth. I grew up in an Asian neighborhood and I had imported snacks from Asia when I was a kid. I remember many of the Japanese snacks were super sweet. Though I think they were sweetened with some sort of fruit juice rather than sugar.
The local markets also sold sugar cane in the produce department and many of my classmates would gnaw on it as a snack.
When my friends eat the food I make, they often comment that it doesn't have enough salt (and I find their food too salty).
It grosses me out to watch people literally pour salt on their food as much as it does to watch someone smoking. And I was raised in a home where every meal had to have salt and pepper sprinkled on it and both my parents smoked, though they stopped when I was young. Apparently living with a cardiologist does that to someone.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Fair point, but it still shows a blatant disregard for citizens' rights. Since WWII there have been multiple instances where soldiers were used as guinea pigs by the government.
I'm going to leave this here as an anecdote. I just learned that several family members in India have all tested positive for covid. Most are vaccinated with either Covaxin (inactivated whole virus) or Covishield (AstraZeneca adenovirus vector). One is almost 90 with several comorbidities and unvaccinated due to frail state where it's higher risk to take her somewhere out in public to receive a vaccine (both risk of infection and adverse events due to vaccination) . All were prescribed Ivermectin, Cefixime (3rd generation cephalosporin antibiotic taken orally), Vitamin C, Vitamin D, and Zinc supplements by physician. All had elevated temperature of 100 degrees for 2 days. All continue to have a cough and congestion. None have issues with oxygen saturation so far, but are monitoring. In general, everyone appears to be stable and improving. Hopefully, that continues to be the trend.
Risk for Newly Diagnosed Diabetes >30 Days After SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Persons Aged <18 years — United States, March 1, 2020–June 28, 2021
Early release study article on the CDC website posted yesterday.
"The increased diabetes risk among persons aged <18 years following COVID-19 highlights the importance of COVID-19 prevention strategies in this age group, including vaccination for all eligible persons and chronic disease prevention and treatment."
Early release study article on the CDC website posted yesterday.
"The increased diabetes risk among persons aged <18 years following COVID-19 highlights the importance of COVID-19 prevention strategies in this age group, including vaccination for all eligible persons and chronic disease prevention and treatment."
scottf200
Well-Known Member
That makes me pretty sad as I have two kids with Type 1 Diabetes and I know it is life-altering... ie. rest of your life (and possibly shortened life by X years or complications).
Yes, we no longer have young children and as of now no grand children, but this is really upsetting as my wife sees a lot of DM1 adults with chronic cardiac issues. You know more than I about how much effort this disease requires to keep blood sugar under control. Wishing your kids the best in dealing with it.
scottf200
Well-Known Member
Thank you. Sorry if my post was a little confusing as my kids are older now (my signature shows their cars). One has had diabetes for 20 years and the other 17 years. I recall the earlier years and it can be challenging for all involved. We are fortunate that they take it seriously because some kids/young_adults/adults do not and it can be damaging to blood vessels and arteries ... that may not show up for a while. We switched from needles to insulin pumps and that made a big difference especially with ongoing adjustments with their specialist. Thanks again.
Via: Why diabetes can damage your blood vessels, and how to know if you’re at risk | Society for Vascular Surgery
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