I partially agree, but I also think that high gas prices are the only thing that stops people from buying huge, inefficient trucks and SUVs (which, in a lot of cases, are just as expensive as a lot of the upcoming EVs). If it's a choice between some people struggling to afford gas and more people buying efficient ICEs or EVs, or people buying gas guzzlers, I know what I would choose.
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if gas prices increase significantly and middle class/lower class folks struggle with travel, is it possible that there'll be less complaint about giving incentives to EV and push the adoption of sustainable transport?
Lots of friends/coworkers I talk to still believe that Tesla is only alive because of government incentives, and that it's something unfair to tax payers. The reason seems to be because gas prices are super low, so in their eyes there's no need to use tax payer money to help the adoption of new/better technology.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
I am probably isolated in this view, but unless our government taxes gasoline in a similar fashion to what we have seen with cigarettes over time, then I think gas prices will stay steady or even decline.
As EVs increase market penetration, gasoline providers are going to see revenue loss. If they raise prices, they will cause the transition to EV to happen faster. They will likely have a glut of gasoline as EV market share grows rapidly which usually makes the price go down. It is also their only lever, lower price and stay more competitive as long as possible. If electricity costs go up, that helps them, but don't forget solar energy offers consumers an option to deal with artificially high electricity prices.
By the way this happened in California. The PUCs raised rates and tiers on electricity to exorbitant prices and sat on their fat profits laughing.... Until the solar industry showed up and offered people with the means an alternative. The irony was that the people with the means were being charged the most and thus most incentivized to go elsewhere... And they did! By the droves. Since then for some strange reason, we're on our way from 5 tiers to 2 and those exorbitant prices are all but gone (now they are just really high). I think it was a real eye opener for the PUCs.
The truth is nobody knows for sure if or when the gas prices will rise. I've been reading and hearing about this for a long time now and even if they did increase a bit, ICE are now much more efficient as they used to be. We could also safely assume that ICE will continue to be more efficient in the future.
On top of that if you look at the last 10 years, gas prices barely increased while electricity is now 30% more expensive...
So to me, it's not about money savings because you will be better at buying a 5 year old Prius or whatever makes sense for your budget. Driving an electric is more about being cleaner and, of course, enjoying the latest technology.
Last but not least, the whole point of this thread was to show than you don't save so much money driving electric compared to an ICE car.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
Yet electricity is still cheaper per mile. With the ever decreasing costs of renewables, electricity costs will eventually stabilize or even decrease. It's still going to be a few years.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
What point ?
My conclusion is that SUV purchases are moronic, and the budget burden is their choice.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
If that is the point then it is flawed.
A person may not save much per mile in fuel costs, or they may save a bundle. A wide range exists related in part to comparison cars and in part how the EV is fueled. I use my home PV and EV costs 0.5 cents a mile.
voip-ninja
Give me some sugar baby
Good post. I agree.
I am highly skeptical of claims that EVs will turn out to be less expensive to own long term than ICE cars, at least until battery technology improves substantially.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
The post was misleading at best with an artificial timeframe after a gas crisis in 2008.
Electricity prices have not risen at the same rates as inflation.
If we don't adjust for inflation, let's look at a larger timeframe:
In 1960: electricity was 2.6 cents / kWh on average, today it's about 13.22 cents so that's an increase of 508%
In 1960: gasoline was 31 cents / gallon on average, today the average is 235.9 cents so that's an increase of 761%
Hurricane Harvey will cause gas price to increase. A promise that will be kept.
As we transition to EV's .... lawmakers will increase taxes to compensate for the loss of revenue collected at the gas pump. Likewise.
But that is not my question:
M3's will pay at the supercharger .... that I understand.
Will the cost be uniform? or based on electricity cost at the charger location?
How will you pay? credit card at the charger? billed monthly by Tesla?
I've never examined a supercharger up close. Do they currently have credit card readers?
As we transition to EV's .... lawmakers will increase taxes to compensate for the loss of revenue collected at the gas pump. Likewise.
But that is not my question:
M3's will pay at the supercharger .... that I understand.
Will the cost be uniform? or based on electricity cost at the charger location?
How will you pay? credit card at the charger? billed monthly by Tesla?
I've never examined a supercharger up close. Do they currently have credit card readers?
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I am curious how you calculate that?
I also have solar and have struggled with this. I could just say it is already paid for and costs me zero in the future. That doesn't seem right though. I have also considered calculating the entire expected lifetime production by original cost minus rebates and credits. But that also supplies our house.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
How can you not believe that EV not be cheaper? Fewer moving parts with less wearing components. Electricity from the source of your choice (grid, solar, SC). If you can't get electricity from the grid cheap enough, then you install PV. The EV model is far more efficient, sustainable and more inexpensive the way I see it.
For the OP, note your rates will still be tiered with CleanPower SF, even though they don't spell it out. Your baseline of about 210 kwh/month still applies and above that you'll likely be paying $0.30/kwh. At 8000 mi/year, about 70 kwh/mo will be at the higher rate, so 70 x (0.30-0.22)= another $5.60/month. If you drove 12000 mi/year, about 155 x 0.08 = $12.40/mo additional.
Still, overall a lot cheaper than gasoline.
Still, overall a lot cheaper than gasoline.
Only because this is a Tesla forum and with the lack of Right to Repair, maintenance could be costly. It will be cheaper to maintain while in warranty or under ESA but after that, cost of ownership is up in the air.
If this was a Toyota BEV, then I wholehearted agree it will be cheaper to maintain that a regular Toyota ICE vehicle.
edit: you are right it seems:
AAA Says Electric Vehicles Have Lower Than Average Ownership Cost
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Pretty much as you state, although I ignore the opportunity cost because I figure it about matches utility inflation. I use PVwatts and 30 years to estimate lifetime generation -- in my case about 55 kWh per watt installed. After tax credit my installation cost was ~ $1.4 a watt for an LCOE cost of 140/55 = 2.54 cents a kWh.
I know from our current Prius Prime and LEAF EV use that we use a kWh every 5.3 miles.
Including charging losses of 12%, this all works out to 2.54*/(5.3*0.88) = 0.544 cents a mile.
voip-ninja
Give me some sugar baby
I don't believe EV will be cheaper based on Tesla $500 a year service cost coupled with eventual replacement of the battery which will cost $15,000 or more dollars... conservatively.
DR61
Member
Seems to me very likely a 55-75 kWh replacement pack will be much less than $15K in 8-10 years. Also by then there may be a good market for old packs that have lost a great deal of range in a car but would still be very useful for utility grid storage.
I always hear people complain about the cost of replacing the battery, and 8 to 10 years is usually the time frame given. I’ve also seen reports of Tesla batteries lasting longer than expected, and I’ve never heard of anyone having to pay to replace the battery (not saying it doesn’t happen, just that I never hear about it). Is this really happening in the real world, or is it just another piece of FUD thrown around by the anti-EV crowd? Or have Tesla’s not been around long enough to know either way?
You left Lexus off this list. They include 2 years of standard maintenance and oil changes. And after that most years there isn't much other than oil changes and tire rotations.
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