-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
seattlite2004
Active Member
Great site for annual fuel/elec cost estimates from the US DOE Alternate fuels Data Center: Alternative Fuels Data Center: Vehicle Cost Calculator
voip-ninja
Give me some sugar baby
Have you read this article?
Tesla Model 3: Exclusive first look at Tesla’s new battery pack architecture
The model 3 battery has lower energy density than the battery in the S/X, does not have a dedicated battery heater and has slower charge and discharge rates.
From this article it appears that getting cost on the battery down was (understandably) Tesla's #1 concern with the 3.
Generally speaking lower cost batteries aren't as robust when it comes to overall charge cycles and longevity.
Will this matter to the typical owner who only hangs onto a car for 3-5 years? No. But it is still a concern when that 10 year old model 3 is only getting 80-85% of the stated range, or worse, has a high enough number of cell failures that it has to be dealt with. The bottom line is that while we don't know what long term reliability of the battery is going to be there is no denying that eventually it will fail. How many 12-15 year old ICE cars need a $15,000 part replacement to remain operational?
Frankly I think many of you stick your heads in the sand when it comes to this aspect of long term EV ownership.
voip-ninja
Give me some sugar baby
voip-ninja
Give me some sugar baby
The only thing you are right about is that we don't know what replacement batteries will cost in 15-20 years. You really think you will get 15-20 years of useful life out of the battery in current gen EV.? Lol. Ok.
How many hours of labor will it take your friendly Tesla servicer to swap the battery? For nearly all automotive repairs done today labor costs far outstrip parts costs which isn't accounted for in your post at all.
BMW covers all service for three years on current cars. That is everything other than tires. At years 4-5 the car needs brake pads and a couple of oil changes and new spark plugs. Nowhere near $5,765 that number is absurd.
With current generation ICE vehicles the real high costs start to come in at the 80,000-100,000 mile mark when timing belts, water pumps, valve adjustments and other service items are called for. Tesla avoids many but not all of those costs and has other potential long term costs that aren't well understood yet.
Let's just say that as someone with a background in technology I am highly skeptical of the cost saving assumptions. Great if they pan out to be true... will believe it when these cars have been on the road for 10 years and we have a better idea of what types of repairs they frequently need and how much those repairs cost out of warranty. One disadvantage is that Tesla doesn't want third parties fixing their cars and the "dealer" is always the most expensive at servicing.
Last edited:
if you live in Cali why the heck don't you have solar? Super sunny and 30% tax break on it
JeffK
Well-Known Member
Yes, here's a blog post on the subject:
Tesla Model S battery degradation data
As far as labor costs later assuming the vehicle lasts that long, they simply need to remove the trim and undo the bolts, depending on where exactly these are located, you're talking under an hour of work, maybe less.
Thank you for the reference, making claims without a link makes your statements questionable.
Your statement are not supported by the article you referenced. It says that the larger cells allowed Tesla to "optimize" volumetric energy density. True, it has smaller battery packs, but the article doesn't say the energy density was lowered.
Your second statement is also not supported. The battery pack no longer has an external battery heater, but it does have a heating system. You may speculate that it won't be as good, but a heating system certainly exists.
The larger battery pack has the same charging rate. The smaller pack is slower. This is not a result of the batteries, but the overall size of the pack. It would be the same if they made a 50kWh model S battery pack.
Both unsupported pieces of speculation. Yes, getting the pack cost down was a priority. But stating it was the #1 priority is pure speculation on your part.
Your next statement commits the fallacy of taking a generalization and applying it to the specific. There are many reasons prices can come down.
I think you are letting your bias cause you to make unsupported assumptions.
voip-ninja
Give me some sugar baby
BMW can't get an oil and brake pad swap done in an hour, there's no way on earth that Tesla is going to swap an 800 lb battery in an hour that requires removing trim pieces, unbolting the battery, disconnecting everything, installing new battery and do the needed software resets to tell the computer that there is a new battery in the car.
Again, too much optimism.
AFA long term performance of S battery, all we know is what has been gathered from a relatively small sample size of self reported owner data. Only Tesla, who has access to the real data knows what the battery performance really is, or what it is expected to be over a very long period of time.
AFAIK Tesla have been mum on the subject of what the EOL of one of their S/X batteries is other than to assure owners that the battery will perform in stated parameters for the warranty period.
The car might be fully functional after 10 years and 150,000 miles but the battery might only perform at 75% of what it did when new... battery degradation is not proven yet to be completely linear. It could be linearly progressive up until 500 or 600 or 700 charge cycles and then fall off a cliff. It is likely that long term battery longevity will be affected by factors such as what temperatures the battery is exposed to during the full life of the battery. We just don't know yet.
I believe the percentage of EVs that have batteries replaced will be about the same as the percentage of old ICEs that have new engines put in; very low. Range decreases as the battery gets older, but very few people want to sink serious money into a really old car. You just sell it cheap to somebody who needs less range, and they do the same to yet another person. Finally, when the car isn't able to hold any meaningful charge it is junked. Hard to say when that will be. At 50K miles my Model S has a range of at least 240 miles. 10 years from now at 150K miles if it has a range of 100 miles it will still be worth something to somebody, but I'm not sure somebody will choose to buy a new battery for a 15 year old car unless they are really cheap (the whole car will probably be worth less than 5 thousand dollars, so the battery would need to cost less than that).
As far as cost savings, most people won't own their car nearly that long, so the only question is the residual value of the car at the end of ownership, which in turn will depend on the remaining life (which we don't know). However, the residual value of a 10-15 year old car is pretty low regardless.
N5329K
Active Member
Too many trees for solar. And too many gray days along the coast, where no one has or needs A/C, ever.
Robin
HOA,............
Just curious, what roadblocks are they putting up? CA has rules against HOAs meddling with solar except in rare situations (like ground panels, which would be really odd in a typical HOA community).
I don't have it because I don't know how long I'll be in this house. Even with a 30% rebate, the cost is so high, that the number of years to get a ROI is too long for me. If I knew for sure I'd be here longer, I'd consider it but this is definitely not our "forever" home.
And you wonder why PG&E sends $500 to EV owners
I don't know if you are planning to buy or already own a Model S/X or 3. With model 3, supercharging is not free. I think $0.20/kwh or something, but no one knows the rate for Model 3 yet. Frequent charging may also constitute 'supercharger abuse', even if you pay for it. But the inconvenience of visiting a SC and possibly waiting for a spot + charging will far outweigh the couple of dollars you will save. Your best option is to install solar, if that is viable and your home is suitable for that. But that complicates the equations further.
BTW, how exactly are you planning to go to Costco while your car will be charging at a super charger across the Freeway? Are you by any chance talking of Costco in Fremont next to I-880 across Tesla factory? Also, do not forget the supercharger fees for over staying.
No. I live in another part of NorCal where there are two Supercharger stations 5 miles from each other. One is essentially in the parking lot of a mall (Costco is on the other side of the freeway, so you either take one direction of the freeway exit for Costco or the other for the mall). The other one is right next to a Target (and a bunch of other stores, but Target is right next to it; I actually parked at Target and then walked to the line to reserve the M3). I plan to just surf on my phone for half an hour to be honest. Figure it's a nice break. However, if things do become slammed like I suspect they might, then I'll have to figure something else out. I'm expecting $0.20/kwh actually. And I'm ok with that as that's the base rate for PG&E anyways. I've NEVER hit any lower than Tier 2 without having to charge a car, which is way above $0.20/kwh anyways so that $0.20/kwh is going to be cheaper than charging at my house anyways.
Solar takes too long than I'm comfortable with to make it worth while. I might use the $500 EV rebate to install a 14-50 just to give me more charging options but right now, I'm not planning on charging at home the bulk of the time.
A 14-50 outlet would be a great use for the $500 rebate. Unless you have access to regular charging, say, at work, you really should have a reasonable charging solution at home. I charged primarily at work for a year or two, since it was free, but still had a need for the occasional weekend charge. Doing it at home was so much more convenient. Once you are free of the mental habit of "going to the fill-up station" you really won't want to go back, and it's really not all that expensive to occasionally charge at home. PG&E also has some interesting EV plans which might make sense for you.
If I am correct in recognizing the landmarks you referenced, I live just up the hill from you. Met me know if you have any questions from a local's perspective.
Sandiegodoug
Active Member
Ev rates crazy in San Diego
Noon to 8pm .50/kWh
Midnight till 5am .19/kWh
All other times .24
You might save a little charging ev at night
But don't dare turn on the air during the day
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
That sky-high daytime rate is a huge arbitrage opportunity if you install PV
JeffK
Well-Known Member
In my state, they are phasing out retail net metering and the prices will drop to just about wholesale rates.
Similar threads
