CPUC NEM 3.0 discussion

[holeydonut]

That's the ACC, but what about the payback calculator?

Do you think that the export compensation rate will be this table on the Dashboard tab (divided be 1000 of course)?

View attachment 914560

Yeah, I guess that table is pretty close to what pictures/graphs I pasted. My graphs were just the "zone 12 rates" from the file that has the table you pasted.

I have my annual hourly net energy consumption data tracked by my Emporia Vue over the 12 months in 2022 . This is just the core home loads, excluding the AC subpanel and EVSE. About 35% of my usage could have been offset by my solar (no ESS). The remaining would have to come from the grid. I know I'm a sample size of 1, but that's all the data I have.

TOU rates make this really messy, but the value of the 35% energy demand would have out to be about $0.27 per kWh if it came from the grid instead of solar. (I'm with MCE and shoulder EV2A starts at 3pm)

The whole malarkey with the step-down on ACC rates, NBCs, and what the heck other stuff is nutso. But since the CPUC assumes the average solar-only system in their model is 3.78 kWp-AC, I'm having a really tough time coming to the conclusion that such a solar system could result in average bill savings of $1,230 for a home if the average demand pattern is anything like my home (excluding the AC and EVSE).

The only way I can arrive at the CPUC's conclusion would be to assume a home were to demand a ton of energy from 9am to 4pm. But the home installs an undersized solar array that maxes out at 3.78 kWp-AC. Thus, the vast majority of that small solar array could be used to power home loads (reduce home demand across the meter). Then I could see the ~6,000 kWh being produced by a 3.78 kWp-AC system being worth $1,230 per year (or about $0.20 per kWh produced).

 

[Daniel L]

Can confirm. Tesla followed up with an email stating they can get our job enrolled in NEM 2.0. Win/win.

I still can't believe how much more expensive everyone else is.

I ordered through Mona Lee (install subcontracted to Titan Solar) for less than Tesla pricing with better inverters (Enphase). This is for an Orange County install. Unfortunately, their guaranteed NEM 2.0 deadline passed last week. I originally ordered through Tesla but they kept giving me ridiculous roof panel layouts and it was impossible to get a hold of someone.

 

[h2ofun]

I ordered through Mona Lee (install subcontracted to Titan Solar) for less than Tesla pricing with better inverters (Enphase). This is for an Orange County install. Unfortunately, their guaranteed NEM 2.0 deadline passed last week. I originally ordered through Tesla but they kept giving me ridiculous roof panel layouts and it was impossible to get a hold of someone.

so, what does this mean? Still trying to get paperwork in?

 

[Daniel L]

so, what does this mean? Still trying to get paperwork in?

I should've been more clear. They were offering guaranteed NEM 2.0 up until last week so it's unfortunate for people ordering now. I only know this because my neighbor ordered before the deadline last week. I ordered 2 months ago and SCE has already approved the interconnection agreement. Panels to go on April 3rd.

 

[andy92782]

They did. It's hard to compare against current usage because right now it's quite low, but it will definitely increase in the future (combination of factors including WFH, change from ICE to EV, heat pump the next time HVAC gets swapped out, etc). One puzzling part of the proposal was their placement of four panels on a NW-facing roof slope. This makes no sense to me - the house has enough area on SE- and SW-facing roof slopes to accommodate all 16 panels. We have a call scheduled with them this coming Monday to discuss this. Once we work through this and hopefully get a satisfactory answer on meeting the NEM deadline, we'll likely proceed.

EDIT: Their provided generation estimate is 47% greater than current usage. This number will probably increase once I talk them into moving those four panels onto the south facing part of the roof.

They're literally 20 grand less than the other quotes we've gotten. 20 grand. That buys a lot of juice at NEM 3.0 rates. Or a week at the Four Seasons on Maui with first class airfare for two.

After a couple of back-and-forth gyrations with Tesla we got them to update the proposal with the panels located where we want them and just hit the "Accept" button. Fingers crossed for NEM 2.0.

Ironically, the updated design now increases the generation estimate from 147% to 170%.

 

[holeydonut]

After a couple of back-and-forth gyrations with Tesla we got them to update the proposal with the panels located where we want them and just hit the "Accept" button. Fingers crossed for NEM 2.0.

Ironically, the updated design now increases the generation estimate from 147% to 170%.

It's complete BS that you all get these mega sized solar arrays approved so easy. GAAhhhhhhh

 

[andy92782]

After a couple of back-and-forth gyrations with Tesla we got them to update the proposal with the panels located where we want them and just hit the "Accept" button. Fingers crossed for NEM 2.0.

Ironically, the updated design now increases the generation estimate from 147% to 170%.

Site assessment scheduled for 4/8. Seems this is coming down to the wire.....

 

[power.saver]

Site assessment scheduled for 4/8. Seems this is coming down to the wire.....

This is posted on the SCE NEM website.

 

[holeydonut]

I wonder if in the coming weeks, @jjrandorin will make a sticky thread in anticipation of the deluge of pissed off people who tried to squeeze in under NEM 2.0 but for some reason or another get bumped into NEM 3.0.

 

[jjrandorin]

I wonder if in the coming weeks, @jjrandorin will make a sticky thread in anticipation of the deluge of pissed off people who tried to squeeze in under NEM 2.0 but for some reason or another get bumped into NEM 3.0.

Those will probably be put into the existing customer service thread. If that happens, its going to be some variation of "I was told XXX but they didnt YYY", so it would be customer service feedback.

 

[Vines]

I think we are lucky that PG&E has more relaxed rules than some of the other IOU around this transition.

We are running 110% in my department and will work really hard to not disappoint anyone who signs up in a reasonable time. I hope the sales team won't be promising NEM 2.0 to anyone past April 1 but I am sure there will be some variation.

We will end up pulling a few 12 hour days I am sure to generate plans for 100% of the customers that we can possibly serve.

 

[sunwarriors]

This is posted on the SCE NEM website.

View attachment 915871

The worrisome line in this text is:
"Incomplete or deficient Interconnection Requests not resolved by Aprl 14th will be ineligible for NEM2.0."

(my bold/underline). If you submit late and there are any problems, there is no time to resolve a thing already, either by you or the installer.

Good luck everyone!

 

[h2ofun]

The worrisome line in this text is:
"Incomplete or deficient Interconnection Requests not resolved by Aprl 14th will be ineligible for NEM2.0."

(my bold/underline). If you submit late and there are any problems, there is no time to resolve a thing already, either by you or the installer.

Good luck everyone!

Not sure why worrisome. We have known about the date for many months now.

 

[andy92782]

The worrisome line in this text is:
"Incomplete or deficient Interconnection Requests not resolved by Aprl 14th will be ineligible for NEM2.0."

(my bold/underline). If you submit late and there are any problems, there is no time to resolve a thing already, either by you or the installer.

Good luck everyone!

It pretty much comes down to DIRFT (Doing It Right the First Time). So long as Tesla dots all the I's and crosses all the T's, we should be okay. If not:

A) we can get our $250 deposit back and cancel the project, or
B) we can move forward anyway under NEM 3.0 knowing we still paid $15-$20K less than any other bid we received

If B), we could argue that saving $15-$20K up front vs. hopefully making it up via NEM 2.0 credits over the next decade is a better deal. A bird in the hand...

 

[racerex]

From what I heard, in order to be grandfathered into NEM2.0 you have to make sure you don't have any resubmissions after April 14th.

 

[andy92782]

Site assessment scheduled for 4/8. Seems this is coming down to the wire.....

....aaaaaaaaand just like that, Tesla rescheduled our site assessment for 3/16. I smell NEM 2.0 success...

 

[hiltxan]

I know how NEM 3.0 drastically reduces the export rates and makes the return on solar much longer, unless you have powerwalls.

I was calculating my own system and I wonder if I'm missing some key points since it seems NEM 3.0 could actually be more advantageous? I just installed a PV solar that can produce 18000kwh/year, but my current usage is 10000kwh/year and I oversized it since everyone suggests it and I may convert to furnace heat pumps and add more EVs in the future. I also installed 2 powerwalls.

My assumptions are that with NEM 2.0 and NEM 3.0, I won't be paying anything monthly for electricity because of my 2 powerwalls since I can just shift my power usage to during sunlight hours (charging EV, running AC which I use 10-20x/year). Generated solar will go to my 2 EVs, powerwalls, powering the house and then exporting to grid if there's still excess.

There are certain months and hours of the year, specifically September, where you can export to the grid at rates of $2.5/kwh. If I can somehow time it to export during those times and months in Aug-Sep, won't I technically be getting even more cash back from the utility company? Am I crazy to think that my return could actually be quicker if I am on NEM 3.0??? Lots of assumptions and my electric usage behavior may change, but does the math check out? Tesla app has a function to export everything - does NEM 3.0 allow this on PGE?

 

[sunwarriors]

I know how NEM 3.0 drastically reduces the export rates and makes the return on solar much longer, unless you have powerwalls.

I was calculating my own system and I wonder if I'm missing some key points since it seems NEM 3.0 could actually be more advantageous? I just installed a PV solar that can produce 18000kwh/year, but my current usage is 10000kwh/year and I oversized it since everyone suggests it and I may convert to furnace heat pumps and add more EVs in the future. I also installed 2 powerwalls.

My assumptions are that with NEM 2.0 and NEM 3.0, I won't be paying anything monthly for electricity because of my 2 powerwalls since I can just shift my power usage to during sunlight hours (charging EV, running AC which I use 10-20x/year). Generated solar will go to my 2 EVs, powerwalls, powering the house and then exporting to grid if there's still excess.

There are certain months and hours of the year, specifically September, where you can export to the grid at rates of $2.5/kwh. If I can somehow time it to export during those times and months in Aug-Sep, won't I technically be getting even more cash back from the utility company? Am I crazy to think that my return could actually be quicker if I am on NEM 3.0??? Lots of assumptions and my electric usage behavior may change, but does the math check out? Tesla app has a function to export everything - does NEM 3.0 allow this on PGE?

View attachment 916321


View attachment 916319

Only thing wrong with this calc is I think everyone on VPP on NEM1.0/2.0 will probably get the higher credits. There is no reason for the utility to not offer to pay those rates to NEM1/2 since they are the ones who are more likely to do that since their net metering is 1:1 and are more likely to closer zero out their bills.

There is also the unknown degradation of cycling your batteries more than your usual use that no one factors at all in these equations.

 

[wwu123]

I know how NEM 3.0 drastically reduces the export rates and makes the return on solar much longer, unless you have powerwalls.

I was calculating my own system and I wonder if I'm missing some key points since it seems NEM 3.0 could actually be more advantageous? I just installed a PV solar that can produce 18000kwh/year, but my current usage is 10000kwh/year and I oversized it since everyone suggests it and I may convert to furnace heat pumps and add more EVs in the future. I also installed 2 powerwalls.

My assumptions are that with NEM 2.0 and NEM 3.0, I won't be paying anything monthly for electricity because of my 2 powerwalls since I can just shift my power usage to during sunlight hours (charging EV, running AC which I use 10-20x/year). Generated solar will go to my 2 EVs, powerwalls, powering the house and then exporting to grid if there's still excess.

There are certain months and hours of the year, specifically September, where you can export to the grid at rates of $2.5/kwh. If I can somehow time it to export during those times and months in Aug-Sep, won't I technically be getting even more cash back from the utility company? Am I crazy to think that my return could actually be quicker if I am on NEM 3.0??? Lots of assumptions and my electric usage behavior may change, but does the math check out? Tesla app has a function to export everything - does NEM 3.0 allow this on PGE?

As @sunwarriors stated, everyone is eligible to opt-in for VPP and demand-response programs (like OhmConnect), and they pay the same regardless of NEM1/2/3, and they pay the same benefit even if you are a net annual producer, i.e. no crippled Net Surplus Compensation rates under NEM1/2. You'll always maximize TOU arbitrage on those programs with plans that have the highest spread, i.e. EV2-A and E-ELEC, but again those are available to all NEM 1/2/3 if you have Powerwalls. So I would ignore in the comparison, since the benefit pay out separately from NEM status.

But I think you're also suggesting daily Export Everything arbitrage under those rates on non-VPP/event days, the presumed credits should be the same under NEM1/2/3. But here's where NEM1/2, those credits are basically zero'ed out at true-up, hence capped by the Net Surplus Compensation for net annual producers. For NEM3 I don't know, do you get the full ACC credits for the whole year, regardless of being a net producer and having a net annual credit? If you do, then yeah, seems like a big win for ESS folks who not only never have to export, but can use export arbitrage.

EDIT: I just re-read your post and realized you weren't talking about VPP at all, the $2.50/kwh example is just ACC rates for a narrow part of the year (looked similar to the $2/kwh Tesla VPP rate). Does seem very beneficial if there are no annual export compensation limits...

 

[RKCRLR]

I'm a net producer but the problem for me is I produce significantly less solar in the winter than in the summer. They last few months I've produced less than 500 kWh/month but average 1000 kW/month in consumption and have gone weeks straight producing hardly anything so I import the difference. Powerwalls don't help much if there isn't anything to store.