Yes same data, but how many S/X will be on the road vs 3 when the 3 is coming fully ramped?
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Dual Motor no longer offers range choice
- Thread starter Snow Drift
- Start date
Yes same data, but how many S/X will be on the road vs 3 when the 3 is coming fully ramped?
X Fan
Active Member
Yes, the problem is a 35K car would mostly likely end up as a 35K only car. 40K and higher, people add options. It's just how incremental purchasing works.
Money today is always worth more than money tomorrow. Tesla will not be able to pass on the entire cost/profits of activating EAP and FSD later.
Those who buy EAP means Tesla gets money upfront immediately for the full value, and then also some of it again on the resale.
Yes, Tesla uses the hardware for safety features not just EAP and it's unrealistic for them to sell a version now of the 3 WITHOUT autonomy hardware but they are then placed in a position where its better to just sell higher skus where people take EAP upfront along with other higher margin upgrades.
Good thoughts... had to ponder for a bit myself before responding.
Tesla's approach to neural net training is spot on, IMO. Rather than have some limited fleet driving autonomously, the AI is simply shadowing real drivers, making decisions but not acting on it, and comparing it to the drivers' inputs. Every EAP S/X/3 is doing this. Further, the cameras are creating a high definition maps of the roadways, quickly outpacing Google street view. Think about it. Google has a very small, limited fleet equipped to record. Every opted-in Tesla with EAP is out there recording.
The value of the data (intelligence and knowledge of the NN) is probably not something we here can quantify. I suspect though that Tesla considers it valuable enough that Teslas that never get sold with EAP isn't a big deal. Those cars are still delivering value to the company.
The value of the data (intelligence and knowledge of the NN) is probably not something we here can quantify. I suspect though that Tesla considers it valuable enough that Teslas that never get sold with EAP isn't a big deal. Those cars are still delivering value to the company.
diamond.g
Active Member
My configurator says mid 2018, delivery estimator says late 2018. Now my wife gets to hear me flip flop between AWD and RWD for the next few months (assuming I hold out that long).
Thanks! Yours too. All of this is somewhat ethereal without hard numbers.
True. It also depends on approach. As long as there is demand for the higher cost/margin vehicle, there is no financially based reason to sell the lower version. If you want to provide a 35k car to the masses to target that group of driver's that would benifit from lower COO, then future proofing it for later markup may be a profitable strategy.
Only if we are talking the same dollar amount. Random numbers: If you can put $2,000 of HW into a car with a 60% chance if it selling for $5k more 4 years later, that is a 11% return.
Oh sure, selling a higher optioned car, and especially a SW flag option like EAP is better for profits. Resale impact may be minimal depending how Tesla values it at trade in, however it seems reasonable to add some markup to further fund development.
Yes, better to have the 0 additional cost SW sale (pure profit).
I was more working in the space of: you are selling a car to a person with a 35k budget, what is the best route? If it is a lease, then deffinately use SW limited pack (had a post on this a long while ago) and disabled AP SW, and gain on the resale side.
voip-ninja
Give me some sugar baby
Someone already snapped a photo of an AWD car (based on VIN) that looked like it was final production, i.e., did not look like a test mule.
There are Day-1 reservation owners who are current or previous owners who still have "mid 2018" as their delivery date for AWD. My guess is that the very latest we will see AWD going into production is late summer.
Actually, I don't know why everyone is interpreting the wording change so negatively. The delivery estimator clearly shows that only SR with RWD is delayed until 2019. It would make no sense to introduce the higher margin SR AWD after the cheaper SR RWD, so the only conclusion that makes sense is that BOTH VERSIONS of AWD models will ship mid-2018.
Is this not logical?
Is this not logical?
ℬête Noire
Active Member
No. Because:
1) It would likely require Gigafactory disruption/delay of ramping up LR pack production to be able to have SR battery packs built.
2) The text changes were purposefully made and the effect of the change is to make interpretation that the SR packs will be able at the start of the AWD availability less tenable than it was prior to the changes.
But this doesn't seem to make sense. Why would the site specifically state that ONLY the RWD version of SR battery pack is delayed until early 2019. If all SR batteries were delayed, they should just say that standard battery is early 2019 without qualifying it. I'm guessing the wording was changed because the AWD models have more than 220 and 310 miles of range.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Why would they want to use a smaller motor for the semi?
We should set up some sort of Tesla prediction market so people can put their money where their mouth is on all this speculation
Will Tesla sell at $35k Model 3 in 2019?
Will Tesla release a white interior Model 3 in 2018?
Will Tesla do the cross country FSD demo in 2018?
$35k Model 3 in 2019, Yes
White interior in 2018, I don't know (I don't want it, would rather have a gray of some sort).
Cross country FSD Demo in 2018, Yes. I'm thinking October before the holiday season.
ℬête Noire
Active Member
Choose to wish for what you want, read into it what you'd like, but that doesn't make it logical. *shrug*
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
It could also mean that there will never be a SR AWD. I think it should be clear to everyone by now that they are going to sell as many high margin cars as they can before selling the cheaper models. They said it in the last quarterly report!
I just wish they would release the white interior (or better yet, tan!) but it seems like they'll probably sell as many black interiors as they can first.
Yes, I agree that it is possible a SR AWD model will never be available. But doubtful since they would have qualified the AWD box as being only for 310 mile range, like the other two boxes.
ℬête Noire
Active Member
You missed the point there, he was mirroring what you've been doing as a means of trying to bring that home to you. Reading in stuff that isn't explicitly ruled out by the text but in fuller context doesn't make much sense.
Sunshine State
Automotive Enthusiast
My third reservation was made mid January this year and it still has delivery of AWD this year. Actual configure page says mid 2018 for AWD on the remaining two reservations.
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jackbowers
Jack Bowers
The benefit of torque-sleep comes from the higher efficiency of the front motor, and is most pronounced on the lighter-weight variants of Model S. Since the RWD Model 3 is already highly optimized (it's a small miracle from an efficiency standpoint, with per mile energy draw on par with the Roadster!), the addition of the front motor will be great for performance and traction but not range. In the early days of the P85D Model S, prior to the torque-sleep software update, range was about 10% worse than the RWD 85kWh Model S (some of that was due to the added weight of the P85D). The good news is that an AWD Model 3 with 18" wheels and covers should deliver real-world range as good as a RWD Model 3 equipped with 19" wheels.
Think of this from an engineering & production point of view. The original plan was premium RWD car first. Then offer smaller battery, then AWD with either battery. Clearly the battery option and dual motor option are separate, and can be developed in parallel.
2 years ago, they probably assumed the dual motor option would take longer to develop, because of all the code that has to get written, trials and validation, etc. How hard could it be to make a smaller battery pack, right?
Now we know a contractor screwed the pooch in pack assembly, and there has been an enormous fire drill to fix it.
If you were elon, what would you do?
They are late, so they have to prioritize production ramp of the big battery, over new battery features right? Not that they don't *want* to make the small battery, but right now that one step is holding back the whole assembly line. Gotta make the big battery production cheap, fast & reliable before adding the smaller option.
None of that delayed the AWD team though. So if they are ready first, that will be offered first. It's the best they can do, to keep the most people happy.
It's just like AWD Model S. Originally, AWD was gonna be introduced with Model X, but then the MX rear doors & seats were such a headache that the model got delayed. So the rolled out the AWD model S first.
Believe it or not, what you personally want for your Model 3 is not so important to Tesla. They have a lot of people waiting for every option, so it makes sense for them to just roll out new HW and SW as soon as it's available.
Personally, I want AWD, but I don't want to pay for the bigger battery. I'll decide when AWD becomes available if I want to wait or take what they have. (declining tax incentives might pay for the battery upgrade) But that's my problem, not Tesla's.
They have enough problems of their own to solve.
2 years ago, they probably assumed the dual motor option would take longer to develop, because of all the code that has to get written, trials and validation, etc. How hard could it be to make a smaller battery pack, right?
Now we know a contractor screwed the pooch in pack assembly, and there has been an enormous fire drill to fix it.
If you were elon, what would you do?
They are late, so they have to prioritize production ramp of the big battery, over new battery features right? Not that they don't *want* to make the small battery, but right now that one step is holding back the whole assembly line. Gotta make the big battery production cheap, fast & reliable before adding the smaller option.
None of that delayed the AWD team though. So if they are ready first, that will be offered first. It's the best they can do, to keep the most people happy.
It's just like AWD Model S. Originally, AWD was gonna be introduced with Model X, but then the MX rear doors & seats were such a headache that the model got delayed. So the rolled out the AWD model S first.
Believe it or not, what you personally want for your Model 3 is not so important to Tesla. They have a lot of people waiting for every option, so it makes sense for them to just roll out new HW and SW as soon as it's available.
Personally, I want AWD, but I don't want to pay for the bigger battery. I'll decide when AWD becomes available if I want to wait or take what they have. (declining tax incentives might pay for the battery upgrade) But that's my problem, not Tesla's.
They have enough problems of their own to solve.
Accentcreate
Member
In France and Aus we get even less information
You are lucky to be given so much info. Here in France (and in Australia) we are given the bare minimum of information and no choices presented, yet. Just an invitation to buy a Model S!
