Elon Musk

[wdolson]

Your plan only appears less stupid than Elon's because you assumed Ukraine can destroy Russia's ability to fight and Putin wouldn't use nukes. He has different assumptions, which plan is more feasible really depends on your respective predictions of the future, which is far from certain. This situation is fundamentally different from "arguing that the Earth is flat against all available evidence", where we can be 100% certain due to the available evidence.

There is no guarantee Russia is going to use nukes. There is a good chance they won't because the other nuclear powers have promised things will get much worse for Russia and probably Putin personally if they use nukes. Unfortunately if Prigozhin gets power, he will likely start using nukes because he has no concept of limits.

 

[spacerfc]

It's unclear that nukes would help Russia, if those nukes are still functional.

Regarding conventional forces though. Ukraine has been the one taking territory for the last month. Their army keeps getting stronger. Russia's army keeps getting weaker. This is going to be the trend for the foreseeable future. Russians are fleeing the country and breaking their own arms to get out of conscription. Ukraine has so many volunteers that they're having trouble equipping them. The West keeps reinforcing Ukraine while preventing most countries from reinforcing Russia.

Yes. Ukraine can win this. Not guaranteed but it seems like the more likely outcome.

So you're putting the hope of averting a nuclear war on Russia's nukes being non-functional? That's what I would call "fantasy divorced from reality"...

As for the conventional front, we'll see, war is full of surprises, and Russia does have a history of turning defeat into victory during war.

 

[spacerfc]

Well Biden seems to take the nuclear threat seriously:

Ukraine war: Biden says nuclear risk highest since 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis

Joe Biden says President Putin was "not joking" when he spoke of using tactical nuclear weapons.

www.bbc.com

"The US was "trying to figure out" Mr Putin's way out of the war, he added.", yet according to armchair generals in this thread there's no need to figure a way out, just need to provide more weapons to Ukraine so that they can win a total victory.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Well Biden seems to take the nuclear threat seriously:

Ukraine war: Biden says nuclear risk highest since 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis

Joe Biden says President Putin was "not joking" when he spoke of using tactical nuclear weapons.

www.bbc.com

"The US was "trying to figure out" Mr Putin's way out of the war, he added.", yet according to armchair generals in this thread there's no need to figure a way out, just need to provide more weapons to Ukraine so that they can win a total victory.

De escalation doesn’t seem like such a bad idea now does it?

 

[texas_star_TM3]

De escalation doesn’t seem like such a bad idea now does it?

"De escalation" = let Putin take Ukraine ... that worked out well in the past. As i said... China is closely watching

 

[Daniel in SD]

"De escalation" = let Putin take Ukraine ... that worked out well in the past. As i said... China is closely watching

Only part of Ukraine. I'm sure it will never happen again.
A bigger problem long term is that every other country is going to want to develop their own nuclear weapons.

 

[ElectricIAC]

"De escalation" = let Putin take Ukraine ... that worked out well in the past. As i said... China is closely watching

They’re watching alright.

Watching as our movers and shakers forsake American Citizens to curry favor in Eastern Europe. Total clown show.

 

[mspohr]

Only part of Ukraine. I'm sure it will never happen again.
A bigger problem long term is that every other country is going to want to develop their own nuclear weapons.

Are you joking?
He got away with taking Crimea. That gave him reason to believe he could take more of Ukraine.
Give him more of Ukraine and he'll be back for more... plus parts or all of other countries bordering Russia.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Elon Musk: ‘Aren’t you entertained?’

The Tesla chief talks to Roula Khalaf about moving to Mars, saving free speech via Twitter — and why ageing is one ‘problem’ that should not be solved

www.ft.com

Elon comes across as completely unhinged in this FT interview.

 

[Crutonius]

So you're putting the hope of averting a nuclear war on Russia's nukes being non-functional? That's what I would call "fantasy divorced from reality"...

As for the conventional front, we'll see, war is full of surprises, and Russia does have a history of turning defeat into victory during war.

Not really. I'm sure enough of them work to be a problem. For the last 60 years we've lived in a world where an unhinged dictator may start a nuclear war over our refusal to capitulate to unreasonable demands. This wasn't a thing that just started 8 months ago. The war only reminded us about this fact. If we give into nuclear blackmail the threat doesn't go away. All it does is teach dictators that nuclear blackmail works.

For the conventional war, I could see how Russia could possible win. It would cost them dearly but if Putin went full Stalin they might pull it off.

But consider ww1 and ww2. WW2 was an existential fight for Russia. They lose they all die. Also the US was supplying them.

WW1 was not an existential threat to Russia and it eventually lead to the destruction of their monarchy.

Which world war does the situation in Ukraine reminds you more of?

 

[Daniel in SD]

Are you joking?

Yes.

One thing I don't understand about talk of WW3 is who Russia's allies would be? Doesn't seem like a world war if one side has only one country. I guess it's just shorthand for use of strategic nukes.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Yes.

One thing I don't understand about talk of WW3 is who Russia's allies would be? Doesn't seem like a world war if one side has only one country. I guess it's just shorthand for use of strategic nukes.

BRICS.

 

[advocate8]

Not like we’re not headed toward Balkanization ourselves anyway.

Indeed. And surely the first state to go will be Texas. Then for almost diametrically-opposed reasons, California.
As usual, Elon saw it all coming and carefully placed factories so that Tesla can avoid import duties. 4D chess! Maybe even 5D!
No doubt he’s scouting property in New York or Massachusetts this minute.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Indeed. And surely the first state to go will be Texas. Then for almost diametrically-opposed reasons, California.
As usual, Elon saw it all coming and carefully placed factories so that Tesla can avoid import duties. 4D chess! Maybe even 5D!
No doubt he’s scouting property in New York or Massachusetts this minute.

You had me till the last part. Red tape wastelands he already has enough to deal with in Fremont and Shanghai.

 

[zecar]

World War II Allies: U.S. Lend-Lease to the Soviet Union, 1941-1945

Even before the United States entered World War II in December 1941, America sent arms and equipment to the Soviet Union to help it defeat the Nazi

ru.usembassy.gov

 

[qdeathstar]

Yes.

One thing I don't understand about talk of WW3 is who Russia's allies would be? Doesn't seem like a world war if one side has only one country. I guess it's just shorthand for use of strategic nukes.

 

[ElectricIAC]

This is ignorant. Russia is setting themselves up with friends all over Asia, Africa, and South America who’d all like to see us taken down a peg.

 

[qdeathstar]

This is ignorant. Russia is setting themselves up with friends all over Asia, Africa, and South America who’d all like to see us taken down a peg.

I’m aware, but certainly those countries Include China? To be honest I think who was saying China in the gif got you all triggered.

I’d say China is the most powerful of Russias partners. You should expand on why it’s ignorant.

Most of Russias other Allies could only create regional headaches.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Including China?

No doubt.

 

[qdeathstar]

No doubt.

So you were saying about me being ignorant???