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Elon thinks those that pre-ordered Model3 pre reveal will see cars before 2018

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by model3fan, May 7, 2016.

  1. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 Porsche 918 Hybrid

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  2. ttupper92618

    ttupper92618 Member

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    I think that you may have missed the fact that Musk has asserted they are moving up the time-table. Thus, instead of aiming for between 100k to 200K cars in 2018, they are aiming for 500K. So no, the 100K Musk is talking about in 2017 is not a greater run rate than they intend for 2018.
     
  3. Electroman

    Electroman Well-Known Member

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    150K (median number between 100k - 200k) in one quarter in 2017 .vs. 500k in 4 quarters 2018.

    Do the math.
     
  4. tdelta1000

    tdelta1000 Active Member

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    I'm fine if that is the case....as long as I get my mod 3 in the end.
     
  5. tsla007

    tsla007 Member

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    @mk-I like your math and it makes sense to me. 115k-all preorders (before unveil) go out 2017 will make a lot of preorder people very happy. I hope he can do that. I've got a lot of money on Elon to come through.
     
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  6. ttupper92618

    ttupper92618 Member

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    Musk's statement was that he hoped for 100k in 2017. You are assuming that is in one quarter. Regardless, it's not out of line even if it were. Only if you assume 200k cars in one quarter is it out of line, and that would absolutely be an assumption and little more.
     
  7. ModelNforNerd

    ModelNforNerd Active Member

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    Not sure how people got hung up on 1 quarter.


    I think it's safe to assume that if Tesla and their suppliers can meet the July 1, 2017 mark, then we're talking about 1 3/4-2 quarters of production.
     
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  8. houdini

    houdini Member

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    Wasn't the quote about volume production by July 1? I took this as meaning the suppliers would be producing parts that would flow into the factory months before that and then hit the deadline with capability, not necessarily volume of goods flowing in.

    It's not going to be June 30 nothing and then July 1 25,000 tyres, 25,000 windscreens.
     
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  9. MrJones390

    MrJones390 Space Boat

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    #69 MrJones390, May 10, 2016
    Last edited: May 10, 2016
    It only has the following info:

    Model 3 Order Number XX Reserved View Profile

    Then when I click on View Profile it just says Model 3 XX

    Thanks for the help
     
  10. ModelNforNerd

    ModelNforNerd Active Member

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    #70 ModelNforNerd, May 10, 2016
    Last edited by a moderator: May 11, 2016

    Posting your full RN is bad. I recommend taking it down ASAP. It is a random string of numbers, but this particular string of numbers is yours. don't show it again until you hear from Tesla.
     
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  11. Pando

    Pando Member

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    @MrJones390 you'll need to edit your post and remove the link as well.
     
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  12. Pando

    Pando Member

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    And @ModelNforNerd the link on the quoted text above also.

    Once you post it out in the open, it's not so easy to get rid of it.
     
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  13. ModelNforNerd

    ModelNforNerd Active Member

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    the link does not bring you anywhere except the login page. login info isn't embedded.
     
  14. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    ModelNforNerd, your quote actually contains a MrJones's link with the reservation number still in it...
     
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  15. tcfersure

    tcfersure New Member

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    I ordered during the announcement, probably around 120k-140k range. I live in the midwest. I know Elon has said they will deliver west coast preorders first. Does that mean that anyone that lives in California that orders a model 3 between now and release date will get their model 3 before me, or does that just pertain to the early preorders?
     
  16. MostlyStock

    MostlyStock Member

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    It looks to me like the 100,000-200,000 units of Model 3 by the end of 2017 and the 500,000 units a year from the Fremont factory for 2018 are both the same goal but with one having an earlier time table. Assuming a production starts August 1, 2017 with a very quick two month ramp up I could see the following.

    Average 7,500 cars a week Model 3 production (8,000 max)
    Quarter Production Total
    Q3 2017 14,900 14,900 (two month ramp up)
    Q4 2017 97,500 112,400
    Q1 2018 97,500 209,900
    Q2 2018 97,500 307,400
    Q3 2018 97,500 404,900
    Q4 2018 97,500 502,400

    The biggest problem I see is money. Everything below will require a large amounts of money in 2016 and 2017. I doubt Telsa can get unsecured loans due to its credit rating. I can easily see Telsa requiring a stock offering twice the size of the one they did back in August of 2015. The problem is I don't see fund managers wanting to double or triple down on Telsa.

    By Q3 2017

    Fremont factory capable of producing 8,000 Model 3 a week (total production of 10,000 cars a week or 500,000 a year).
    Gigafactory and/or Panasonic 0.54 GWh of Model 3 batteries a week (27 GWh a year just for the Model 3).

    By the end of 2017

    Double the superchargers (~3,600 stalls).
    Quadruple the destination chargers (~11,300 units).
    New Stores, Galleries and Service Centers (~225 locations).
    More inventory to support the above.

    For the Model 3 to succeed none of the above can be cut and in fact some of it may not be enough.
     
  17. Pando

    Pando Member

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    @ModelNforNerd - Yes, but the RN number is still visible in the hyperlink "View Profile" in your post.

    Edit: what JeffK said.
     
  18. BluestarE3

    BluestarE3 Active Member

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    Hmm... my profile shows:

    Model 3 RNxxxxxxxxxxx​

    What's Next?

    Your Model 3 was reserved on 3/31/2016. You will be invited to configure
    based on the date of your reservation.
     
  19. p-f-g

    p-f-g Member

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    Why? Could you give one objective reason?
     
  20. Jayc

    Jayc Member

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    It would have been really good if Tesla could have given out our reservation queue position considered as a single queue and normalized in time across the world. At least that gives us some idea where exactly we were when we ordered.

    Of course this information is not useful beyond that but at least will give us some hope based on an official number.
     

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