It looks to me like the 100,000-200,000 units of Model 3 by the end of 2017 and the 500,000 units a year from the Fremont factory for 2018 are both the same goal but with one having an earlier time table. Assuming a production starts August 1, 2017 with a very quick two month ramp up I could see the following.
Average 7,500 cars a week Model 3 production (8,000 max)
Quarter Production Total
Q3 2017 14,900 14,900 (two month ramp up)
Q4 2017 97,500 112,400
Q1 2018 97,500 209,900
Q2 2018 97,500 307,400
Q3 2018 97,500 404,900
Q4 2018 97,500 502,400
The biggest problem I see is money. Everything below will require a large amounts of money in 2016 and 2017. I doubt Telsa can get unsecured loans due to its credit rating. I can easily see Telsa requiring a stock offering twice the size of the one they did back in August of 2015. The problem is I don't see fund managers wanting to double or triple down on Telsa.
By Q3 2017
Fremont factory capable of producing 8,000 Model 3 a week (total production of 10,000 cars a week or 500,000 a year).
Gigafactory and/or Panasonic 0.54 GWh of Model 3 batteries a week (27 GWh a year just for the Model 3).
By the end of 2017
Double the superchargers (~3,600 stalls).
Quadruple the destination chargers (~11,300 units).
New Stores, Galleries and Service Centers (~225 locations).
More inventory to support the above.
For the Model 3 to succeed none of the above can be cut and in fact some of it may not be enough.
