Elon tweet - working on existing radar to work like a lidar.

[Matias]

Yes. We both came to the conclusion, that this is possible in theory, but is it possible in practise?

There is very small difference between a truck that is right on the side of the road and which is straight ahead. Difference can be only one meter.

But it is great, if this difference is bigh enough to avoid false positive AEB.

 

[electracity]

The tweet is actually a negative, as it suggests that the next generation hardware hasn't solved some basic problems. A coarse lidar replacement still won't be able to distinguish human gestures and body position like lidar. Google car car read if a bicycle riders foot in on the ground. Musk thinks is Tesla's safety is good elsewhere that his less sophisticated hardware will be good enough.

Two of the three recent autopilot accidents show complete inattention by the drivers. Possibly even sleeping. This is the fundamental argument against Tesla approach to autonomous driving. The better the system, the more drivers can get away with being inattentive.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Model 3 will get watered down S and X hardware (if they want to make $$$). Also, there will be a premium for such features (e.g. fee to access superchargers)

I absolutely disagree. Elon does not think that way. The M3 will get the latest batteries and technologies.

 

[msnow]

I absolutely disagree. Elon does not think that way. The M3 will get the latest batteries and technologies.

Agree. I have no idea why the poster said that.

 

[Austin Powers]

I absolutely disagree. Elon does not think that way. The M3 will get the latest batteries and technologies.

It's Economics 101. This is akin to asking for BMW 7x features on a 3x Elon himself has said several times that X and S buyers are the ones paying the premium for innovation and cutting-edge features. Until such features can be produced at scale and with decent margins, they won't go down to the lower model. In the keynote, he said that a decently equipped M3 will cost you ~$42k. He recently mentioned the supercharger access fee also (makes financial sense)

Here is an example: Autopilot costs about $2500 right now. It will continue to cost that much even on the 3 if they were to use the same tech. If they lower the price for that tech, then they will need to bring the higher end model prices down or they will need to innovate further to keep the premium on the X and S. Net-net, the lower end models will not be able to get the latest and greatest tech at a lower price point.

Full disclosure: I have a couple of Model 3 reservations so nothing against that demographic

 

[Az_Rael]

It's Economics 101. This is akin to asking for BMW 7x features on a 3x Elon himself has said several times that X and S buyers are the ones paying the premium for innovation and cutting-edge features. Until such features can be produced at scale and with decent margins, they won't go down to the lower model. In the keynote, he said that a decently equipped M3 will cost you ~$42k. He recently mentioned the supercharger access fee also (makes financial sense)

Here is an example: Autopilot costs about $2500 right now. It will continue to cost that much even on the 3 if they were to use the same tech. If they lower the price for that tech, then they will need to bring the higher end model prices down or they will need to innovate further to keep the premium on the X and S. Net-net, the lower end models will not be able to get the latest and greatest tech at a lower price point.

Full disclosure: I have a couple of Model 3 reservations so nothing against that demographic

Isn't Mercedes introducing their latest and greatest "autopilot" on their E class and not the S class? And I think Audi has introduced brand new features on their A3 line first in the past before rolling them into the rest of the line. So it isn't unheard of for manufacturers to put features in their lower models that the top line doesn't have yet. They seem to be driven more by which model is up for redesign than maintaining some sort of hierarchy. Especially for stuff that will be introduced fleet-wide eventually.

 

[Garlan Garner]

It's Economics 101. This is akin to asking for BMW 7x features on a 3x Elon himself has said several times that X and S buyers are the ones paying the premium for innovation and cutting-edge features. Until such features can be produced at scale and with decent margins, they won't go down to the lower model. In the keynote, he said that a decently equipped M3 will cost you ~$42k. He recently mentioned the supercharger access fee also (makes financial sense)

Here is an example: Autopilot costs about $2500 right now. It will continue to cost that much even on the 3 if they were to use the same tech. If they lower the price for that tech, then they will need to bring the higher end model prices down or they will need to innovate further to keep the premium on the X and S. Net-net, the lower end models will not be able to get the latest and greatest tech at a lower price point.

Full disclosure: I have a couple of Model 3 reservations so nothing against that demographic

I still don't buy it. The Model S and X features are primarily software based. It costs absolutely NOTHING to copy software. The M3 has been promised:
Ludicruis - MS and MX have it
200+ miles per charge - MS and MX have it
All future AP hardware standard - Not all MS's and MX's have it.

I'm not sure what other features you could be refereeing to.....that would be vacant on the M3. Air shocks? Who cares?
Elon is certainly forward thinking. Whatever Tesla can fit into the $35K chassis - they are going to get in there. They have competition to beat. They aren't going to blow away the Chevy Bolt by making a car like the Chevy Bolt.
Last thing I recall ELON saying is the word "Cowbells". Even after the promises......"Cowbells".

We will see.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Isn't Mercedes introducing their latest and greatest "autopilot" on their E class and not the S class? And I think Audi has introduced brand new features on their A3 line first in the past before rolling them into the rest of the line. So it isn't unheard of for manufacturers to put features in their lower models that the top line doesn't have yet. They seem to be driven more by which model is up for redesign than maintaining some sort of hierarchy. Especially for stuff that will be introduced fleet-wide eventually.

Are you folks listening to the words that Tesla is saying?

ALL M3's will have AP hardware. Period. What else do you want to hear?

So lets add it up. The MS will have AP, The MX will have AP and the M3 will have AP. You can buy the software on all 3 models if you want.

 

[RDoc]

Because Tesla's radar is not phased array radar, I'm really curious how this would work.

I'm pretty sure that's incorrect. My understanding is that they use Bosch Automotive radars that steer the beam electronically, both vertically and horizontally, and use a continuous wave "chirp" technique to determine both distance and relative speed.

I presume that what Elon is talking about is more a software change than sensor hardware. The data coming back from the radar sweeps would be integrated together to map out a 3D set of points that the software then puts together into a set of objects. It would be very cool if that was assisted by what the camera(s) saw to build up the model of what's in front of the car.

From what I've seen of how TACC/AP works, it doesn't do any model building currently, it just reacts to what it sees instant by instant and drives the car based on that instantaneous perception. Having never written that kind of software, I feel perfectly free to say that it would be a lot smarter and less error prone if it continuously built and updated a smart model of the car's surroundings, then drove the car through that model. I suspect the main hardware change needed would be a stronger computer.

 

[Garlan Garner]

It's Economics 101.

Tesla is where it is today because it ignored Economics 101. Economics 101 would not allow a new startup company in the automotive industry.

Elon paid payroll out of his own bank account for the 2 months prior to the MS unveiling - to the tune of 1.1 million dollars. There is no Economics class that would have a CEO do that.

Tesla is where it is today because its not following "standards". My company is where it is today because its not following "Classroom Standards".

Elon needs to start teaching a new class of Economics titled. "By Any Means Necessary".

 

[J1mbo]

The tweet is actually a negative, as it suggests that the next generation hardware hasn't solved some basic problems. A coarse lidar replacement still won't be able to distinguish human gestures and body position like lidar. Google car car read if a bicycle riders foot in on the ground. Musk thinks is Tesla's safety is good elsewhere that his less sophisticated hardware will be good enough.

Two of the three recent autopilot accidents show complete inattention by the drivers. Possibly even sleeping. This is the fundamental argument against Tesla approach to autonomous driving. The better the system, the more drivers can get away with being inattentive.

Bosch supply the radar and ultrasonics in the current gen system. I believe Tesla are using the MRR gen 1 radar hardware, and Elon is describing the "micro-doppler" capability of the gen 2 hardware.

This document from the NTSB Safety Forum details how it all hangs together. The focus is on pedestrian detection but the same principles can be applied to any object.

 

[Cosmacelf]

AP sensors are cheap, computing power just a little more expensive. The real cost is in software, which costs nothing to replicate. So no reason why model 3 shouldn't have full suite. I will be disappointed if the next gen AP hardware doesn't have at least three cameras, better radar, and better processing.

 

[AmpedRealtor]

Model 3 will get watered down S and X hardware (if they want to make $$$).

Couldn't disagree more. The sensors in Model S are not anywhere as advanced as sensors in, say, a much less expensive Mercedes E Class. The cost of such technology falls precipitously over time. Of course Model 3 will get improved technology over what is in the S and X. Model S and Model X have nothing special or premium in the sensor category.

I can't wait to hear all the Model S and Model X owners cry foul when the $40,000 Model 3 ships with improved technology, better software, and a more advanced Autopilot system. You'll be falling over yourselves.

 

[Matias]

I'm pretty sure that's incorrect. My understanding is that they use Bosch Automotive radars that steer the beam electronically, both vertically and horizontally..

I'm happy to be wrong in this, but I was under the impression, that phased array radars are just coming to cars and are not yet in use. Do you happen to have some link to this Boch radar?

 

[RDoc]

Pretty much all current automotive radars work in the 77 - 79 GHz band and are electronically steered. Just look up 77GHz automotive radar.

The radial resolution is around .5 m and angular resolution around .5 degrees horizontally, 2-5 degrees vertically. Newer systems are better.

 

[Matias]

Pretty much all current automotive radars work in the 77 - 79 GHz band and are electronically steered. Just look up 77GHz automotive radar.

The radial resolution is around .5 m and angular resolution around .5 degrees horizontally, 2-5 degrees vertically. Newer systems are better.

I'm sorry, but I could not find any system with beam steering. Could you please give a direct link.

I'm talking about phased array beam steering

Phased array - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Zybd1201]

I'm pretty sure that's incorrect. My understanding is that they use Bosch Automotive radars that steer the beam electronically, both vertically and horizontally, and use a continuous wave "chirp" technique to determine both distance and relative speed.

I presume that what Elon is talking about is more a software change than sensor hardware. The data coming back from the radar sweeps would be integrated together to map out a 3D set of points that the software then puts together into a set of objects. It would be very cool if that was assisted by what the camera(s) saw to build up the model of what's in front of the car.

From what I've seen of how TACC/AP works, it doesn't do any model building currently, it just reacts to what it sees instant by instant and drives the car based on that instantaneous perception. Having never written that kind of software, I feel perfectly free to say that it would be a lot smarter and less error prone if it continuously built and updated a smart model of the car's surroundings, then drove the car through that model. I suspect the main hardware change needed would be a stronger computer.

I agree with everything here. Well said. Although. they do some holistic path projection/planning but do not (as far as I know) build a 3d model of surroundings. Agreed this would require some pretty intense computing power if that is what you are describing!

So far it seems their theory is, use a camera and a radar to mimic a human driving by using augmented computer vision. The thing seriously lacking in this concept which I believe you are describing is the lack of situational awareness.

Certainly a tough problem to solve.

 

[alseTrick]

Model 3 will get watered down S and X hardware (if they want to make $$$). Also, there will be a premium for such features (e.g. fee to access superchargers)

So you're saying Tesla should knowingly put in less-than-optimal Autopilot hardware on a car that has more reservations than total cars Tesla has produced up to this point (ie, hundreds of thousands of vehicles with "watered down" Autopilot)?

You're saying that's a good idea? With all of the media backlash over Autopilot right now? You want a worse hardware system to be installed?

By every account the same hardware that's on the S and X will be on the 3 (including future hardware upgrades). And just like the S and the X, it will require an upgrade fee to activate that option.

 

[Garlan Garner]

So you're saying Tesla should knowingly put in less-than-optimal Autopilot hardware on a car that has more reservations than total cars Tesla has produced up to this point (ie, hundreds of thousands of vehicles with "watered down" Autopilot)?

You're saying that's a good idea? With all of the media backlash over Autopilot right now? You want a worse hardware system to be installed?

By every account the same hardware that's on the S and X will be on the 3 (including future hardware upgrades). And just like the S and the X, it will require an upgrade fee to activate that option.

Its Beta - You don't have to use it. I think its a good idea. Tesla is gleaning real world results.

Its Beta.

DON'T TURN IT ON....if you think something is wrong with it. Tesla isn't forcing it on "anyone". Come on adults.

 

[alseTrick]

Relevance?