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Village Idiot
Apparently I had one too many beers last night
. I would like to hear Elon's side of the story. I fear for his sanity. Don't geniuses tend to lose their minds more often than the rest of us? Or is that just Hollywood?
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. I would like to hear Elon's side of the story. I fear for his sanity. Don't geniuses tend to lose their minds more often than the rest of us? Or is that just Hollywood?Apparently I had one too many beers last night
Hollywood. Mental health is one of those things no one really understands. "genius" might refer to someone with issues already (like Mr. Nash or people with autism spectral disorders). Those might get progressively worse or just be more apparent as someone ages and cannot conform or bother with typical social conventions (crazy is really just a term used for odd or unusual behavior not necessarily clinical issues).
Audi had a demo of car-park navigating self-parking car already in 2013:
It is true that nobody has a production car that is Level 4/5 yet. Audi will likely be the first to market with a Level 3 car (motorway driving), with the Audi A8, though.
My comment was aimed at the wishful thinking by @schonelucht that Tesla might release a self-driving, car-park navigating update to Model S/X on Friday.
QUOTE="AnxietyRanger, post: 2211308, member: 27769"]Audi had a demo of car-park navigating self-parking car already in 2013:
It is true that nobody has a production car that is Level 4/5 yet. Audi will likely be the first to market with a Level 3 car (motorway driving), with the Audi A8, though.
My comment was aimed at the wishful thinking by @schonelucht that Tesla might release a self-driving, car-park navigating update to Model S/X on Friday.[/QUOTE]
Musk has been clear that M3 was designed with autonomy in mind, so it is not unreasonable to think that he may show something along those lines on the 28th. Whether this leads to an FSD ("beta") rollout to the S/X fleet is another question.
As for Audi being in the game for years.. sure, but they actually going to market with an Intel-based solution (yes, this includes Mobileye).
Finally, whether Audi gets to market first with L3 first depends very much on Tesla
It is true that nobody has a production car that is Level 4/5 yet. Audi will likely be the first to market with a Level 3 car (motorway driving), with the Audi A8, though.
My comment was aimed at the wishful thinking by @schonelucht that Tesla might release a self-driving, car-park navigating update to Model S/X on Friday.[/QUOTE]
Musk has been clear that M3 was designed with autonomy in mind, so it is not unreasonable to think that he may show something along those lines on the 28th. Whether this leads to an FSD ("beta") rollout to the S/X fleet is another question.
As for Audi being in the game for years.. sure, but they actually going to market with an Intel-based solution (yes, this includes Mobileye).
Finally, whether Audi gets to market first with L3 first depends very much on Tesla
Funny post. Isn't there some law against drinking and posting?
But I can guarantee he's not losing any sleep over this.I doubt Elon cares anymore about Tesla. He proved he could bring EV to the masses. Tesla is yesterday's news. Who cares about electric cars when you can launch rockets into space? I know I wouldn't. I'd care more about space travel and tunnels. And stop stroking Elon's (ego) in public, it's unbecoming!
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What does that even mean? You think it suddenly means Tesla is massively more advanced in self-driving than AP2 has been showing and Model 3 will be let loose with that? As far as we can tell that is nothing more than a marketing quip. Similar to how you don't look instrument cluster in a taxi. Model 3's will very likely be driven for many, many years before anyone can think of them just always driving around by themselves without supervision...
Look, I guess we all agree Tesla probably has an FSD codebase brewing that is different and more advanced than EAP. But in the end, they've been at it for a very short time - relatively speaking. It is very hard to see a responsibility-taking self-driving product from them this year. I think they may release more videos and even a coast-to-coast effort, but again those are things other companies have been doing for ages already.
Could I agree in theory it is possible they have been hiding it and could still jump ahead of the curve? Sure, in theory they might. But given the massive undertaking that self-driving is beyond a driver's aid (the part where one can't anymore ridicule drivers reporting to TMC when the car crashes while driving itself) - and the state of Tesla's driver's aid today - it seems more likely to me that the pioneers of Level 3+ driving will be companies other than Tesla and that Model 3 will not suddenly change this.
That was the idea I was answering, though, so everything else is irrelevant when responding to my post about it.
As for Audi being in the game for years.. sure, but they actually going to market with an Intel-based solution (yes, this includes Mobileye).
Finally, whether Audi gets to market first with L3 first depends very much on Tesla
Of course they are. Just like Tesla is going with Nvidia and MobilEye before that. Audi has always had partners within their autonomous project. Car-makers integrate products of third-parties and build their own platforms on top of them.
My point was:
@schonelucht put out the idea about Tesla releasing a car-park navigating software update to Model S/X on this Friday. I countered that by putting such thinking into the context of the wider self-driving market progress.
If one of the pioneers of autonomous, the company with first known Level 3 car coming to market - Audi - does not have a car-park navigating, self-driving Level 4/5 car coming to the market for at least a year+ (there's talk of it, though), the chances that Tesla - who does not even have a timeline for Level 3, let alone Level 4/5 - would release autonomous software this Friday... that would take responsibility for driving the car (how else could it navigate the car-park by itself)... seems, well, wishful thinking.
No?
The mistake you make is assuming Elon or the markets at large agree with you that there is a problem with how he communicates. There is a problem according to a few mega nerds on and internet forum who make a hobby out of thinking about Tesla all day. Folks here keep overestimating their own relevance to the world at large.
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By and large, agreed. I think the absolute most optimistic feature we could possibly expect out of the event would be the freeway-to-freeway feature of EAP, maybe with fewer or no nags to leapfrog Audi's Level 3 capability (though that's probably a tall order for now).
Audi has no level 3 capability for sale - they have a promise as well. By the time the A8 is released sometime in early or mid 2018 Teslas AP2 will have had several more version releases. Let's compare abilities at that time.
There's no evidence that Audi will be first with Level 3 @AnxietyRanger. The car won't be on sale for 7 or 8 more months. AP2 has gone from zero to almost AP1 in the same time frame. Neither you nor I have any idea where AP2 will be at the time of the A8 release. But the A8's level 3 is laughably limited - essentially useless because it switches off at 37 mph. Not hard to imagine Tesla will have 37 mph Level 3 8 months from now.
Honestly AP2 is pretty damn good on highways right now. Its not L3 but its not hard to imagine that with 5 more months they'd have confidence in you reading and otherwise being awake but not needing to pay attention (no nags!!). Highways are fairly straight-forward and Tesla vision definitely sees far ahead now. With better object and path recognition it will be L3. Tesla might even be building HD maps to further give confidence in positioning.
Even @Bladerskb has said that highways are easy. That's why @Bladerskb believes Elon chose the CA to NY route (very little local driving) for the FSD demo but if Tesla is able to do that, even if its easy, its a game changer.
Forget Audi doing 37mph. That's useless other than for urban commuters and they should be looking at a Tesla anyways because AP2 in low speeds (and AP1 too) doesn't nag that much anyways right now.
Sounds great in theory, and I'd be thrilled of course if this is how it plays out. I like the positive thinking, though.
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Village Idiot
I hope not. That's when I think I post my best stuff. Then I wake up...Isn't there some law against drinking and posting?
Actually Audi said it would only be available on highways, so you can really through out the entire urban commuter piece all together. I guess it would only be useful in traffic jams and only until you pass it essentially, we can basically do that with AP 1/2 now very easily with just nudging the steering wheel every so often.
@oktane said something almost - optimistic? Hopeful? :calisnow looks around to see if he is dreaming and goes off to buy lottery tickets:
Don't get me wrong, I won't coddle Tesla or absolve them for their deception but I do think they are finally going somewhere and might fulfill some of their "expectations."
It might take a lot longer than they "expected" but they are at least trying. Its just a total lack of transparency so we have to rely on what others discover and generously share on this forum.
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