Elon, Where is the FSD features you promised?

[u00mem9]

He said 10x so many times, in so many places, that it was obviously just hype. It has been the target for the Enhanced autopilot, the threshold for removing "beta", and the threshold for engaging FSD.

In fact, the only solid data that we have is the delta for the AP1.0 cars because they operated for 1 year without AP, then another year with AP. Following the Brown decapitation, NHTSA showed that the vehicles were safer (1.4x? if I recall). This was limited to airbag deployments, so it says nothing about fender benders, etc.

The thing is...that doesn't mean much for AP2.0 / AP0.2 (a detail I suspect NHTSA would be surprised to learn) It's a different system at the sensor / path plotting level. It's conceivable that it's less safe in "EAP" mode than AP1...and that is hard to even evaluate with the constant updates.

 

[verygreen]

Not a bad idea. I wonder what the best way is to play that card. Show up at a service center and say "my FSD that I paid for isn't working, can you take looksie and find out what's wrong." And then repeat two more times.

Since FSD was not promised from the start, I think you need to start with things that are more on the ground.

The most easy one is the automatic wipers (safety feature!), some other stuff from safety and eap features next (dead spot detection? was that promised anywhere?)

 

[stopcrazypp]

Well, that's OK because 2x isn't a target and it's not a reference to anyone else.

The 2x only refers to average distance driven by Tesla Model S owners between collisions. It was twice as high with Autopilot on compared to Autopilot off. It was only mentioned in response to people suggesting that Autopilot was unsafe after the infamous white trailer incident.

For Autonomy, Elon Musk has, repeatedly, said that the key target to _enable_ autonomy would probably be 10 times safer.

He said 10x so many times, in so many places, that it was obviously just hype. It has been the target for the Enhanced autopilot, the threshold for removing "beta", and the threshold for engaging FSD.

In fact, the only solid data that we have is the delta for the AP1.0 cars because they operated for 1 year without AP, then another year with AP. Following the Brown decapitation, NHTSA showed that the vehicles were safer (1.4x? if I recall). This was limited to airbag deployments, so it says nothing about fender benders, etc.

The thing is...that doesn't mean much for AP2.0 / AP0.2 (a detail I suspect NHTSA would be surprised to learn) It's a different system at the sensor / path plotting level. It's conceivable that it's less safe in "EAP" mode than AP1...and that is hard to even evaluate with the constant updates.

This is an issue with mixing up things when Elon is talking in general (as when he is at most tech conferences) and when he is talking specifically about HW2. In most tech conferences (both in the past before AP2 and more recent ones after AP2) he tends to talk generally about goals that may be accomplished longer term (not necessarily with current hardware). The conference call I linked, he was explicitly talking specifically about HW2.

From day one, it's clear HW2's goal was at minimum 2x better than humans and it remains so from the latest official statements about hardware.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Exactly my point. They don't have the system working, and yet are stating that the sensor suite is enough. They have nearly 1 year of production now in the field with this "banking". It's not going to happen. "banking" is a guess (even if an educated one). It is stated as FACT. (and also stated as if regulators are the only potential delay point -circa Oct 2016)

While we are on the topic of reality, Elon is also under some delusion that 2x safer than the 'average human' is acceptable from a regulatory and liability standpoint. Setting the regulatory question aside, He thinks YOUR insurance is going to sign up for the accidents resulting from the Tesla FSD system. That is not going to happen at any reasonable cost initially. Tesla will need to hold this bag until the industry can quantify the risk and cost of the liability of the cars they insure. (or will carry a high premium)

Finally, is anyone here interested in a vehicle that drives itself into an accident with 1/2 the frequency of the 'average human'? Really? I semi-regularly avoid an accident that is the fault of another 'average human', and watch many other 'average humans' drive into each other daily. If a member of your family is injured in an accident you could have avoided, are they going to be comforted knowing "you would have been in 2 accidents by now, if I was an 'average human'!?

2x is not a reasonable target and was not the hype pitch used at the time. 2x safer than BMW 7er or MB S class vehicles and their owners maybe...

Well humans rely pretty much only on vision (and perhaps a bit on audio). So it makes sense a 360 visual view at all times should be able to accomplish at least 2x (given good enough AI and processing power).

 

[oktane]

Since FSD was not promised from the start, I think you need to start with things that are more on the ground.

The most easy one is the automatic wipers (safety feature!), some other stuff from safety and eap features next (dead spot detection? was that promised anywhere?)

Great advice. Time to set up a SC appointment or three lol. Tricky part is they may not wish to take the car in for issues (like auto wipers) that they know they can't fix.

 

[u00mem9]

Right. This is all just a case of misunderstanding what Elon claimed.

This is an issue with mixing up things when Elon is talking in general (as when he is at most tech conferences) and when he is talking specifically about HW2. In most tech conferences (both in the past before AP2 and more recent ones after AP2) he tends to talk generally about goals that may be accomplished longer term (not necessarily with current hardware). The conference call I linked, he was explicitly talking specifically about HW2.

From day one, it's clear HW2's goal was at minimum 2x better than humans and it remains so from the latest official statements about hardware.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Well humans rely pretty much only on vision (and perhaps a bit on audio).

Humans also rely on movement and (usually) stereo vision.

AP2 offers non-moving, non-stereo vision (most ways).

If a camera is blocked it won't move its head or get out to clean it for example.

I do think good weather FSD is possible on AP2 (especially with CPU/GPU upgrade possibility), but it does seem very prone to issues...

 

[oktane]

Humans also rely on movement and (usually) stereo vision.

AP2 offers non-moving, non-stereo vision (most ways).

If a camera is blocked it won't move its head or get out to clean it for example.

I do think good weather FSD is possible on AP2 (especially with CPU/GPU upgrade possibility), but it does seem very prone to issues...

This is the concept of parallax. In addition to parallax we rely on monocular and binocular clues. Ever try driving down the highway with one eye? It can be uncomfortable.

Binocular cues include stereopsis, eye convergence, disparity, and yielding depth from binocular vision through exploitation of parallax.

Monocular cues include size: distant objects subtend smaller visual angles than near objects, grain, size, and motion parallax.

Yes, our visual processing is far more than just two cameras, and difficult to replicate with a static setup. I'm sure the radar and sensor data help tremendously though.

 

[Swift]

I disagree, they sold me a car with the promise of FSD, so they either need to deliver FSD for my car, or they need to provide a new car at no cost that provides that promise that gave me. The only reason I bought the car was for the FSD feature that were coming based on that now "sham" of a video of FSD proven by Tesla with the current hardware set.

Yes, it seems that many people based the entire vehicle purchase on the promise of EAP and FSD. There were no disclaimers that the FSD video was heavily edited so it was easy for consumers to conclude that the feature was reasonably far along in development. Combine that with Musk's coast-to-coast by 2017 statement and it's clear that was sufficient for people to be excited about FSD and pay for it. I'm sure every one of those people reasonably assumed that the capability would be in place during the majority of their lease or average purchase cycle. For people with 36 month leases, that would be around April of 2018. I don't imagine that FSD as depicted in the videos will be in the hands of regulators until at least 2019. Even then, the vehicles would likely need to be retrofitted with new hardware, possibly beyond the CPU/GPU. Anyway the financial liability is going to be significant no matter what happens...

 

[Reciprocity]

I get that you are all whining a lot, but if FSD was available today in a firmware update, you couldnt use it because it would be illegal. You have no idea where Tesla is in its development because they have no reason to tell anyone. The only thing you have is Tesla and Elon's word that it will be available when its legal. Do we all think that Tesla can snap it's fingers and get regulatory approval? You are going to need billions of miles to build it and billions of miles to validate it and billions of miles to prove its safer then a human. Then and only then can you even think about regulatory approval. All this talk about hardware not being up to par or somehow you were all duped.. you are all dopes if you couldnt read the not so fine print. I own 2 EAP and NOT FSD cars because I could read the damn disclaimer and use my brain to determine that I would first see it was approved by regulators. You will know it when it happens because it will be very big news and I assure you, you will have a hard time not seeing it. Until then? I saw a Bolt with a great self driving video, you should go get that car. Maybe GM can snap its finger and get regulatory approval.

 

[Swift]

I get that you are all whining a lot, but if FSD was available today in a firmware update, you couldnt use it because it would be illegal. You have no idea where Tesla is in its development because they have no reason to tell anyone. The only thing you have is Tesla and Elon's word that it will be available when its legal. Do we all think that Tesla can snap it's fingers and get regulatory approval? You are going to need billions of miles to build it and billions of miles to validate it and billions of miles to prove its safer then a human. Then and only then can you even think about regulatory approval. All this talk about hardware not being up to par or somehow you were all duped.. you are all dopes if you couldnt read the not so fine print. I own 2 EAP and NOT FSD cars because I could read the damn disclaimer and use my brain to determine that I would first see it was approved by regulators. You will know it when it happens because it will be very big news and I assure you, you will have a hard time not seeing it. Until then? I saw a Bolt with a great self driving video, you should go get that car. Maybe GM can snap its finger and get regulatory approval.

All these customers are whiners? Really? So if Tesla needs billions and billions of miles and a ton of time to even get it to regulators, then what the F were they thinking by selling it to people since 2016? Seriously. What other manufacturer does that? Come on man. Think if your company did something like that. These people paid for something they may never see. Tesla should get body slammed by the FTC and state consumer protection agencies. You'll realize that when the litigation picks up.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I get that you are all whining a lot, but if FSD was available today in a firmware update, you couldnt use it because it would be illegal. You have no idea where Tesla is in its development because they have no reason to tell anyone. The only thing you have is Tesla and Elon's word that it will be available when its legal. Do we all think that Tesla can snap it's fingers and get regulatory approval? You are going to need billions of miles to build it and billions of miles to validate it and billions of miles to prove its safer then a human. Then and only then can you even think about regulatory approval. All this talk about hardware not being up to par or somehow you were all duped.. you are all dopes if you couldnt read the not so fine print. I own 2 EAP and NOT FSD cars because I could read the damn disclaimer and use my brain to determine that I would first see it was approved by regulators. You will know it when it happens because it will be very big news and I assure you, you will have a hard time not seeing it. Until then? I saw a Bolt with a great self driving video, you should go get that car. Maybe GM can snap its finger and get regulatory approval.

LOL.

There is nothing illegal about releasing FSD today. Just keep equivalent nags aka Level 2.

Tesla are you listening - you can push upload, no problem.

 

[boonedocks]

... if FSD was available today in a firmware update, you couldnt use it because it would be illegal.

Except for this:

Georgia officially OKs self-driving cars on public roads

 

[u00mem9]

you are all dopes if you couldnt read the not so fine print. I own 2 EAP and NOT FSD cars because I could read the damn disclaimer and use my brain to determine that I would first see it was approved by regulators.

So how has it been driving the car for the last year without a working Autopilot?

Excuse me if I'm less than impressed that you only got scammed by 50% of the AP2 rollout.

AP1 owner here

 

[Reciprocity]

LOL.

There is nothing illegal about releasing FSD today. Just keep equivalent nags aka Level 2.

Tesla are you listening - you can push upload, no problem.

Do you have any idea of the level complaining on this forum if FSD had a nag. It would make this inane thread look tame and pertinent.

 

[Reciprocity]

Except for this:

Georgia officially OKs self-driving cars on public roads

I refuse to read anything longer then a 140 car tweet, but im guessing you still have to be at the wheel and paying attention. Just a guess.

 

[verygreen]

Great advice. Time to set up a SC appointment or three lol. Tricky part is they may not wish to take the car in for issues (like auto wipers) that they know they can't fix.

Um... just phrase it correctly.
The wipers don't work in the rain or such? I guess lemon law might have provisions for things that are broken but vendor just refuses to fix too?

This is the concept of parallax. In addition to parallax we rely on monocular and binocular clues. Ever try driving down the highway with one eye? It can be uncomfortable.

Some people have monocular vision for whatever reason. I am one of them, I still can drive

I still have "stereo" vision (in the sense that I can feel depth because as my head is moved the perspective changes and the brain knows how to deal with this.

This is apparently called wiggle stereography.

 

[verygreen]

I refuse to read anything longer then a 140 car tweet, but im guessing you still have to be at the wheel and paying attention. Just a guess.

Not so.
Even TN has provisions for self driving cars that don't require anybody to be at the wheel (but there must be someone in the car, ok if unlicensed or minor).

 

[Reciprocity]

All these customers are whiners? Really? So if Tesla needs billions and billions of miles and a ton of time to even get it to regulators, then what the F were they thinking by selling it to people since 2016? Seriously. What other manufacturer does that? Come on man. Think if your company did something like that. These people paid for something they may never see. Tesla should get body slammed by the FTC and state consumer protection agencies. You'll realize that when the litigation picks up.

Tesla does not get to use that money. It sits in a reserve account until the product is released. Only then can Tesla recognize the revenue and use that money.

If you are right, why hasnt Tesla been "Body Slammed" and I assume you mean royal rumble style, by the FTC? I would guess that you havnt because they can point to the terms to which you agreed. Tesla is not going to show their hand just because you whine enough. They will show their hand when they are forced by competition or by regulatory movement, or when its done. Until then, there is 0 value to cater to a few rabblerousers on an internet forum.

Dont body slam the messenger.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Do you have any idea of the level complaining on this forum if FSD had a nag. It would make this inane thread look tame and pertinent.

Yes, that's why we have a terrible EAP instead...

Seriously. Come on.

You make it sound like FSD would be here if only it weren't for the regulations. You sound like an official Tesla disclaimer.

FSD is not here, as isn't EAP proper, because it is not done. Not because of regulations.