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EU Market Situation and Outlook

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by SteveG3, Mar 25, 2014.

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  1. NannerAirCraft

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    Sorry my mistake.
     
  2. hobbes

    hobbes Active Member

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    German minister of transportation (conservative/CSU) calls for one billion extra money in 2020 to support private charge points by 50% of their cost: E-Auto: Scheuer will eine Milliarde Euro für private Ladesäulen
    In my state (Northrhine Westphalia) the state administration already does this, but nice to see it coming for all Germans.
     
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  3. hobbes

    hobbes Active Member

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  4. aubreymcfato

    aubreymcfato Member

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    I dont' think we can extrapolate Norway's data to other countries ;-)
    Netherland did disappoint a little, so we gotta wait for Germany numbers: those will decide if we pass the 20k threeshold.
    I thought 15k was good, now I think we can do much better, something like 21-22k.
     
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  5. hobbes

    hobbes Active Member

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    Numbers for most countries came in quickly - we are at more than 19,000 official regstrations with data from Germany still missing!
    As Norway had 1016/5822 in Feb/Mar, I suspect Germany will go from 1092 in Jan to 5000-6000 in March, so the total would be 24,000-25,000 :D!
     
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  6. hobbes

    hobbes Active Member

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    O.k., Norway is a bit of a special case, I agree. If I do the extrapolation for Model 3 from Feb to Mar using all countries except Germany and Norway, I get a factor of 4.2 - multiplying this withe the German Feb number for 3 and adding S/X from Feb I end up with about 4,200. I guess that might be more realistic.
     
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  7. AustinPowers

    AustinPowers Total Smeghead

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    Not quite, actually. Numbers are in: 2,367 for Tesla in March, according to the KBA statistic. More than double the February number of 1,092, but lower than what some might have expected.

    My takeaway from my personal experience at delivery is that those numbers are influenced by Tesla not having enough delivery capacity. I asked my delivery guy how many they currently (this was March 21) deliver in Frankfurt and he said about twenty to twenty-five per day, but that Tesla HQ would like them to deliver about fifty per day which he said wasn't possible because they simply didn't have enough staff to do so.
    Plus, every day I drive by the delivery center on my commute, the parking lot is filled with ever more Model 3s, so they definitely have quite a backlog. If that is the case for all delivery centers in Germany, they probably could have delivered 4,500+ cars if they had enough staff.
     
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  8. SwTslaGrl

    SwTslaGrl Member

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    "Daimler faces probe over 'new cheating software' AFP
    BERLIN: Daimler confirmed Sunday it was facing a regulatory probe after a report said German authorities have uncovered a previously unknown type of pollution trickery software allegedly installed by the car giant in some of its vehicles.[...] According to the Bild report, around 60,000 vehicles of the Mercedes-Benz GLK 220 CDI models produced between 2012 and 2015 were affected.[...] The software allegedly reduced emissions of nitrogen oxide during test conditions."
     
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  9. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    April will see over 4000 deliveries in Europe, overwhelmingly Model 3. All of those cars arrived prior to Mar 31 in Europe and were therefore 'in transit'.
     
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  10. aubreymcfato

    aubreymcfato Member

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    are we sure about that? you know this tracking the carriers or do you have another source?
     
  11. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    Yes, this is through tracking the carriers. With independent confirmation from local Tesla delivery specialist who (surprisingly for once) all say the same thing : first ships arrive around May10th. I consider it super solid. Personal speculation is once again that the majority of cars on Morning Cornelia go to Norway.

    There is also continued reporting that Model 3s arriving in Zeebrugge are all US spec and are respecced to EU versions in Belgium : main points are the charge port and headlights assembly. As weird as it sounds, I now lean to believing it but it's far from 100% sure.

    Btw : something weird, there is a car carried dock side in SF right now, but it's not at Piet 80 but in Richmond. Anyone local knows if Tesla switched loading docks or is this carrier not for Tesla?
     
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  12. ggr

    ggr Roadster R80 537, SigS P85 29, M3P 80k

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    It could be delivering cars from somewhere else to the Bay Area. There was at least one car carrier in Q1 that docked at Richmond then moved over to Pier 80.
     
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  13. AustinPowers

    AustinPowers Total Smeghead

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    Numbers for Germany are extremely disappointing imho: only 514 Model 3 in April, after 2,367 in March.
    I would have expected something like 3K. What could be the reason for such a massive drop in deliveries? I thought there were about 50K reservations in Germany alone?
     
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  14. mblakele

    mblakele pre-jackpot member

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    Overhang from The Wave in Q1, and no new arrivals? Probably it’ll take a while to smooth out.
     
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  15. Doggydogworld

    Doggydogworld Member

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    Some of the 4k sales were inventory S/X, few of which were counted as in transit on 3/31. Some Model 3 sales fell through in March, e.g. the customer rejected the car, canceled the order to capture the 2/28 price cuts or had their lender back out. Sales beyond mid-April seem unlikely to have been in transit on 3/31. I'd guess 3k were in transit, maybe a bit more.

    They haven't had a ship with Teslas aboard reach Europe for six weeks. The first ship of Q2 will dock in Zeebrugge this week.
     
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  16. Electroman

    Electroman Well-Known Member

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    90k in Q2 looks more bleak. And so is 400k for the year
     
  17. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    First ship of Q2 (Morning Cornelia) just arrived at Zeebrugge.
     
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  18. aubreymcfato

    aubreymcfato Member

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    Norway is 40 today... where the hell did they hide these cars?
     
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  19. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    No idea. They are now up to 150 registered over the last 3 days. Wondering if perhaps Tesla is preregistering cars that will arrive over the next few days? Although then I would expect the VINs to differ from the ones they were delivering end of March and that doesn't seem to be the case (just eyeballing this, maybe someone else has the time to do proper analysis)
     
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  20. Spidy

    Spidy Active Member

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