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RobStark
Well-Known Member
On the manufacturers ranking, the race is pretty hot, with Tesla (14%) and Nissan (13%) running for Number One, while BMW (11%), Hyundai (10%), and Mitsubishi (9%), all race for the last place in the podium.
EV Sales: Spain August 2019
RobStark
Well-Known Member
In the brands ranking, BMW (20%) is the clear leader, with the Tesla (11%, down 1%) less than 100 units ahead of the #3 Renault (11%, down 1%).
EV Sales: Germany August 2019
Looks like UK might see a Netherlands-Effect in Q4 - there is talk about their EV subsidy being scrapped:
Government plans to scrap the £3,500 Plug-in Car Grant subsidy for electric cars
With already strong demand there, this might help delivery numbers towards the end of the year.
Government plans to scrap the £3,500 Plug-in Car Grant subsidy for electric cars
With already strong demand there, this might help delivery numbers towards the end of the year.
Thanks for point this out, but it doesn't say that it will be ended in this year, just "eventually". It's also worth noting that the last day of the UK financial year is 5 April, not 31 December, so it is unlikely to have any Q4 impact.
Q4 demand should be insane. Hopefully GF3 can let Tesla prioritize NL/UK/US demand and not ship any Model 3 to China. If not I I assume a lot of non tax credit markets will get really starved in late Q4 and delivered in Q1 instead. I will do an early prediction of 125k deliveries in Q4, where I guess GF3 will produce 15k cars in Q4. Also Q1 will focus on ramping Model Y as Model 3 demand will be much lower.
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
Outside the Top 20, we should notice the Tesla Model X climbing to #21, just 336 units below the #20 Range Rover Sport PHEV, thanks to 617 deliveries
In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (21%, up 4%) is the leader, while last year winner BMW (14%, up 1%) remains in the runner-up spot, ahead of Renault (10%), that needs more models (Twingo EV, Captur PHEV, Megane PHEV, Scenic PHEV…) in its lineup to expand sales, while Hyundai is below the podium, with 8% share.
EV Sales: Europe August 2019
RobStark
Well-Known Member
NannerAirCraft
Member
Tesla To Set Model 3 Sales Record In The Netherlands: 6,500 In Q3
Currently at 4,821 registered Model 3 in the Netherlands for September. Looks like we're still waiting for data on Friday's deliveries I'm hoping it's similar to Thursday's 500+ day and then there should be a couple more to trickle in over the weekend and then whatever they can deliver on Monday. It's insane the rate they've been delivering and I hope it keeps up in Q4.
Currently at 4,821 registered Model 3 in the Netherlands for September. Looks like we're still waiting for data on Friday's deliveries I'm hoping it's similar to Thursday's 500+ day and then there should be a couple more to trickle in over the weekend and then whatever they can deliver on Monday. It's insane the rate they've been delivering and I hope it keeps up in Q4.
Not sure if the script is broken or this data is for real, but eu-evs.com already shows 7289 for the Netherlands in Q3 as of 9/29 with one more day (today) to go.
Netherlands sets a new European record for most deliveries in a month, beating Norway´s Mar. 2019 number of 5,822! Final, official count: 5890! That´s pretty amazing
!For the 6 out of 14 countries (including otherland) that have reported, we are at 128% of July. However, I don´t think we can simply extrapolate that to all countries, because it is totally dominated by Netherlands. Let´s see...
EDIT 1: all reported countries -NL are 18% down...
EDIT 2: conservative estimate: all countries except NL (reported and not) are 18% down - leads to total of 15,900 registrations in Europe for September, which is still 10% up QoQ.
EDIT 3: @Troy : That estimate would lead to approximately 26,800 deliveries in Europe in Q3, or about 17% up for the quarter compared to Q2!
EDIT 1: all reported countries -NL are 18% down...
EDIT 2: conservative estimate: all countries except NL (reported and not) are 18% down - leads to total of 15,900 registrations in Europe for September, which is still 10% up QoQ.
EDIT 3: @Troy : That estimate would lead to approximately 26,800 deliveries in Europe in Q3, or about 17% up for the quarter compared to Q2!
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The table below shows my final estimate for Q3. I posted this on Twitter here yesterday. With the 6 entries we received today, we have now 79% of Q3 registrations data for 'Europe excluding the UK'. Based on my calculation, the actual number might end up around 24,400 units for this category. @hobbes, I'm simply using June numbers for missing September numbers.
Unfortunately, UK data is expected after Tesla releases their numbers. Last month SMMT released their data on the 5th I think. This month it could be 4 or 7 Oct.
I hope insideEVs releases their numbers soon because I'm curious.I hope they don't go back to waiting for Tesla to release the actual numbers. Edit: insideEVs' numbers are out.
Unfortunately, UK data is expected after Tesla releases their numbers. Last month SMMT released their data on the 5th I think. This month it could be 4 or 7 Oct.
I hope insideEVs releases their numbers soon because I'm curious.
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Uk numbers will be out on Friday. They will definitely be strong, whether they’re as strong as indicated above I don’t know. But they haven’t worked through all the backlog yet and because of the company car tax reduction to zero for EVs from April 2020, UK will stay one of Tesla’s largest markets in Europe (& quite possibly their largest).
We will probably never learn how close or far off InsideEVs numbers were unless Tesla shares US figures in the ER, but I am not sure how much credit we can give them this time. As I was saying in the "roundtable" thread, if you read their editorial published yesterday, it says that they are basically left with no sources to base their estimates on and thus will switch to a quarterly format and hope to get a better source for that.I hope insideEVs releases their numbers soon because I'm curious.I hope they don't go back to waiting for Tesla to release the actual numbers.Edit: insideEVs' numbers are out.
So, while it has always been an estimate, at least part of it was based on actual data they were receiving. This time it looks like an educated guess - much like we do here on TMC.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Losing Cars.com inventory data does not affect their Tesla estimates. Same with carmakers shifting to quarterly vs. monthly reporting - Tesla was always quarterly. And reporting combined EV and non-EV variants of the same model (e.g. Prius) obviously doesn't apply to Tesla.
For Tesla they mentioned the combining of S/X. That just makes it harder to give separate S and X estimates. They also mentioned the loss of in transit data which they used to help with their "first month" estimate. I don't see this having a major effect. They will continue to report monthly Tesla estimates and IMHO they'll continue to be reasonably accurate.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (42%, up 9%!) extended its lead, followed by Hyundai (13%, down 2%), while the other Korean, Kia (8%, down 2%), is in the last place of the podium, ahead of Volkswagen (7%), BMW and Nissan (both with 6%).
EV Sales: Netherlands September 2019
RobStark
Well-Known Member
The local plug-in market was up 52% YoY, to 3.518 registrations, with September scoring a 14% share for plugins (6,5% for BEVs), keeping the 2019 PEV share at 11%.
In the manufacturers ranking, Kia is in the lead, with 24% share (down 2%), with a rising Tesla (18%, up 2%) in 2nd place, while Volvo (14%, down 1%) and Mitsubishi (13%, down 1%), are discussing the last podium seat.
EV Sales: Sweden September 2019
Only 518 Model 3s in France in September.
http://www.avere-france.org/Uploads...c313709d8c39f8fe20075-immats-octobre-2019.pdf
http://www.avere-france.org/Uploads...c313709d8c39f8fe20075-immats-octobre-2019.pdf
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