FIRMWARE UPDATE! AP2 Local road driving...and holy crap

[schonelucht]

Show me where Tesla said parity with AP1 in December because I don't believe they ever said or printed that. They said the first software release for AP2 would be out by December, and it was - barely. The confusion here is between a single release with all features working perfectly, vs an incremental approach spanning months. Could Tesla have been more clear about this? Yes, I concede that. But I don't think they have purposely mislead anyone, at least not with their official remarks or website.

Is the press conference for the reveal of Autopilot 2.0 official enough?

(Link starts at 5m20s which is the relevant part). There is really no discussion possible about this. Parity was expected by the end of the year by Tesla. So once again, why were do they seem to be so off on their expectation when yourself finds it evident that they can't get there before June based on the 300 million miles needed?

EDIT : link seems to start somewhere entirely else. But skip to 5m20seconds to get the parity bit.

 

[Turing]

Is the press conference for the reveal of Autopilot 2.0 official enough?

(Link starts at 5m20s which is the relevant part). There is really no discussion possible about this. Parity was expected by the end of the year by Tesla. So once again, why were do they seem to be so off on their expectation when yourself finds it evident that they can't get there before June based on the 300 million miles needed?

Yeah, listen to the 16 minute mark. It seems pretty clear Elon's goal/estimate was to have it by December but even in this video he was forthright saying it could slip and not reach parity with AP1 until later into 2017.

 

[schonelucht]

Yeah, listen to the 16 minute mark. It seems pretty clear Elon's goal/estimate was to have it by December but even in this video he was forthright saying it could slip and not reach parity with AP1 until later into 2017.

Based on the context there he is talking about the autonomous parts (like summon parking). Which is about in line with his recent quip that FSD-like features will start to appear 3-6 months from now. The earlier quote leaves no discussion that parity was expected by December. And it's not just me who interprets his words like that. Here is the report on that conference call from Electrek Tesla’s software timeline for ‘Enhanced Autopilot’ transition means ‘Full Self-Driving Capability’ as early as next year

 

[calisnow]

13 pages and counting... TL;DR

I'll summarize:

"Elon's late and/or doesn't know what he's doing and/or I'm vewwy vewwy upset."
"No he isn't."
"Is too."
"Is not."
"Hey don't push me!"

 

[Turing]

Based on the context there he is talking about the autonomous parts (like summon parking).

The comment is pointing out that HW1 will be better than HW2 until at least December and "maybe later." That doesn't sound like parity guaranteed by December to me.

The earlier quote leaves no discussion that parity was expected by December. And it's not just me who interprets his words like that. Here is the report on that conference call from Electrek Tesla’s software timeline for ‘Enhanced Autopilot’ transition means ‘Full Self-Driving Capability’ as early as next year

Kind of silly in my opinion to take such a strong interpretation of the phrasing "probably in december" given months out, especially considering a few minutes later he says HW1 will be better than HW2 until at least December and "maybe later".

Beyond this, i guess nobody else noticed that the AP project lead sandbagged Tesla, allegedly stole data and tried recruit away top people in the AP program during this period. So you know, screw Elon for not predicting that issue/delay and factoring it in, right?

 

[Matias]

MobilEye has been developing AEB and lane detection for years. It was hubris from Elon to think, that they can in three months accomplish something the other guys have been developing years.

 

[malcolm]

MobilEye has been developing AEB and lane detection for years. It was hubris from Elon to think, that they can in three months accomplish something the other guys have been developing years.

Well it is kinda his M.O.

Landing rockets was considered hubris until it happened, so now relaunching is dismissed as hubristic.

Same with Solar City; same with the Boring Company.

Given the large number of crazy things that have happened and which are happening I'm quite surprised that it's only the FWDs that are officially counted as hubris with a capital hugh.

 

[JoaoD]

Is there another topic about AP2 experiences so far that we can read without all this off topic?
There are some great reports in this thread but they are easily missed...

 

[brianman]

What's fascinating is that I fully comprehend how people who are inured to Elon's bullshit aren't surprised. But that the fanboys cannot see past their adoration of Elon indeed suggests a stockholm syndrome situation. It's weird. At any rate, their happy acceptance of duplicity changes absolutely ZERO material facts.

Counterproductive, and reflects poorly on you. FYI.

 

[drshan]

I get it. Just shocked that initial rollout of autosteer felt like an Atari 800 after all of the propaganda / tweets.

 

[brianman]

I get it. Just shocked that initial rollout of autosteer felt like an Atari 800 after all of the propaganda / tweets.

I never had an Atari 800. That said, I fully expected the first 3 updates carrying AP2-HW-related payload to be quite rough. Both because we knew learning/training was needed, and because of Elon's track record with aggressive internal and external direction and timeline-setting.

 

[disagree]

Counterproductive, and reflects poorly on you. FYI.

Such extreme apologetics for misleading and fraudulent business practices are counterproductive.

And I'm fine with being a person who believes that the worthiness of a goal does not excuse unnecessary, blatant, sloppy, and/or intentional consumer deception.

 

[NerdUno]

Wondering if some of the FanBoys have already signed up for Elon's first Mars Adventure. Should be a BLAST!

 

[Joe F]

So those posting here defending the company's quality problems, slipped schedules, and track record to date, lay the blame on recent AP2 owners consternation for not delving into the history of the company and its executives before buying?

They point to all of the other ventures the (brilliant, granted) CEO is involved in as an example of "stuff's hard" and if we wait long enough, it will work.

Okay...

So I guess if I want to buy a new Ferrari F12berlinetta I should first scour the 'net for blog postings, Twitter quips, investor quarterly calls, SEC filings, etc, before trusting the company will sell me a car that just works? Anyone have Mr. Marchionne's E-mail address and social media contact info?

I know, sounds ridiculous, doesn't it? Yet that's what we're admonished to do by those who seem to feel this is normal and expected buying due diligence. Is this something one is expected to do when buying a $100K+ car? Really?

Anyone have Mary Barra's contact info?

 

[EinSV]

Wondering if some of the FanBoys have already signed up for Elon's first Mars Adventure. Should be a BLAST!

You guys seem to be inordinately fond of the word "fanboy." This is a form of ad hominem attack -- attacking the person rather than their arguments.

I think this snippet from the Urban Dictionary says it well:

fanboy
(n) Technocratic zealots; evangelicals of geekery. Characterized by irrational advocacy of a particular OS, console, company, or franchise.
Most commonly used to delegitimize contrary opinions in gaming forums.

Ex. "Waht the #@%? Darkrev0r jus a nintendo fanboy dont bother with him."

The posters above have made many legitimate points. For some reason you seem hellbent on trashing Tesla, but perhaps you can stick with the facts instead of juvenile name-calling.

 

[disagree]

You guys seem to be inordinately fond of the word "fanboy." This is a form of ad hominem attack -- attacking the person rather than their arguments.

I think this snippet from the Urban Dictionary says it well:

fanboy
(n) Technocratic zealots; evangelicals of geekery. Characterized by irrational advocacy of a particular OS, console, company, or franchise.
Most commonly used to delegitimize contrary opinions in gaming forums.

Ex. "Waht the #@%? Darkrev0r jus a nintendo fanboy dont bother with him."

The posters above have made many legitimate points. For some reason you seem hellbent on trashing Tesla, but perhaps you can stick with the facts instead of juvenile name-calling.

1. I am sorry and will use "irrational advocates" in the future.

2. Please don't be an irrational advocate of the views that a problem with a part of the Tesla experience is a problem with the whole of it and that anyone who doesn't like an aspect is trashing it. The use of "trashing it" is clearly an attempt to delegitimize the issues.

 

[ABC2D]

You guys seem to be inordinately fond of the word "fanboy." This is a form of ad hominem attack -- attacking the person rather than their arguments.

I think this snippet from the Urban Dictionary says it well:

fanboy
(n) Technocratic zealots; evangelicals of geekery. Characterized by irrational advocacy of a particular OS, console, company, or franchise.
Most commonly used to delegitimize contrary opinions in gaming forums.

Ex. "Waht the #@%? Darkrev0r jus a nintendo fanboy dont bother with him."

The posters above have made many legitimate points. For some reason you seem hellbent on trashing Tesla, but perhaps you can stick with the facts instead of juvenile name-calling.

Maybe TMC could create a .... "safe space section of the forum"....

 

[NerdUno]

If you track back through some of the twisted interpretations of what most would consider Plain English contractual language, irrational advocate aka FanBoy seems just about right. Funny that juvenile and idiot don't seem to qualify as name calling in the FanBoy lexicon.

 

[EinSV]

1. I am sorry and will use "irrational advocates" in the future.

2. Please don't irrationally advocate the view that a problem with a part of my Tesla experience is a problem with the whole of it.

OK, I think many of you are irrationally advocating against EAP and Tesla's rollout of it. I will also say that I am skeptical that those posting on this thread were surprised by the way this is being rolled out.

Also, for those of you who like to throw around words like "fraud" you might consider the all-too-common phenomenon known as the Planning Fallacy, in which "predictions about how much time will be needed to complete a future task display an optimism bias and underestimate the time needed." Planning fallacy - Wikipedia

Most of us are guilty of succumbing to the Planning Fallacy. Given that Tesla is doing things that no one has tried before, accurately predicting timelines is especially difficult. I think a fair criticism of Tesla is that its predicted timelines are often too optimistic. But to say this is fraudulent is ridiculous IMO.

 

[disagree]

OK, I think many of you are irrationally advocating against EAP and Tesla's rollout of it. I will also say that I am skeptical that those posting on this thread were surprised by the way this is being rolled out.

Also, for those of you who like to throw around words like "fraud" you might consider the all-too-common phenomenon known as the Planning Fallacy, in which "predictions about how much time will be needed to complete a future task display an optimism bias and underestimate the time needed." Planning fallacy - Wikipedia

Most of us are guilty of succumbing to the Planning Fallacy. Given that Tesla is doing things that no one has tried before, accurately predicting timelines is especially difficult. I think a fair criticism of Tesla is that its predicted timelines are often too optimistic. But to say this is fraudulent is ridiculous IMO.

Thank you for your opinion.