I accept my EAP/FSD fate (i.e., might not ever meet AP1 parity). But the rain-sensing wipers really piss me off. As they say here in Seattle, "Winter is coming."
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FSD may require a hardware upgrade...
- Thread starter boonedocks
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- Model S
Idk why @stopcrazypp and others praise the demo that tesla has today as though its something to be rivaled.
They have one of the WORST fsd demoes out there when you compare the lack of difficulty and the dozens of potential fatal accident mistakes the system does in the video.
Its not even close, its literally dead last!
They have one of the WORST fsd demoes out there when you compare the lack of difficulty and the dozens of potential fatal accident mistakes the system does in the video.
Its not even close, its literally dead last!
I personally feel like that video should be removed and a public apology made for misrepresenting the reality of were Tesla actually was at the time it was made and referenced as ANYTHING close to realistic. Not saying false advertising but certainly a misrepresentation of reality.
#StillWaitingOnMySilkySmoothOrSomethingSpecialElon
It's the epitome of false advertising. I'm still shocked that a multi-billion dollar company such as Tesla could have made such a bone-head move that will cost them hundreds of millions in the next few years for no good reason. The would have sold 10% less cars by not doing this and still come out ahead.
lunitiks
Cool James & Black Teacher
Tesla's silence on this topic is stunning and tells me that there may be something seriously wrong behind the scenes. That or they are about to announce a major breakthrough (doubtful, IMO). The bottom line for me is that Elon Musk and Tesla have lost all credibility when it comes to timelines and feature announcements. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
I used to create demos all the time for a failed startup called DigialSquare back in the late 90s. I was their Creative Director. I created what appeared to be a fully functional version of their "software store" (way before Apple or anyone else had this idea), except that it wasn't. It was an interactive presentation created in Macromedia Director that only worked if the user followed a pre-determined script of actions. Bottom line is that it was simply a fake demo of a software product that didn't really exist in a functional form. The CEO used my "demo", followed all of the scripted actions, and sold investors on the "product". Except there was no product. It was all smoke and mirrors. The company folded within a year.
I used to create demos all the time for a failed startup called DigialSquare back in the late 90s. I was their Creative Director. I created what appeared to be a fully functional version of their "software store" (way before Apple or anyone else had this idea), except that it wasn't. It was an interactive presentation created in Macromedia Director that only worked if the user followed a pre-determined script of actions. Bottom line is that it was simply a fake demo of a software product that didn't really exist in a functional form. The CEO used my "demo", followed all of the scripted actions, and sold investors on the "product". Except there was no product. It was all smoke and mirrors. The company folded within a year.
My gut is telling me there is something big on the horizon in terms of updates. Waiting on 9.0 to see what happens in the next month or so. If nothing serious or major happens in 9.0 then I will lose all faith.
Kind of like how Apple doesn't like to talk about any progress or future products then bam...announcement is made (iPhone Keynote September 12th btw for those who don't know yet).
Well, the new dash and HUD could happen? 
Not that it helps this thread much...
Not that it helps this thread much...Well, the new dash and HUD could happen?
Sure it does! More things we can complain about we are missing and how it's all lies and smoke and mirrors!! It would be funny if it wasn't true.
Here's my take on the FSD. I think Tesla is keeping quiet because 1) they don't really have to say anything more (the narrative is already out there and can't be helped by more talk), 2) they are focusing on Model 3 which is more important anyway and 3) maybe they've learned something at least, sometimes staying quiet about forward-looking stuff is just better than saying things that end up being inaccurate...
Whether or not it will result in a "9.0 moment" anytime soon, who knows. I doubt a "9.0 moment" could be FSD, really, but it could be a real EAP based on for example the FSD codebase instead of the current branch, with perhaps one or two extra features thrown in for FSD cars that use the third forward camera. That I could see happening sooner than FSD itself coming in any meaningful way.
But it is also possible we keep trudging along on the same dreary AP1 parody path as we are on now and the only way real FSD/EAP manifests itself to us in the short-term is when Tesla gets around to staging the coast-to-coast demo and posts it on YouTube. That will get Tesla some PR, it may or may not be related to what gets released.
Frankly, at this point, I'd be happy with getting the "8.1 moment", which is also soon nine(ish) months late...
Whether or not it will result in a "9.0 moment" anytime soon, who knows. I doubt a "9.0 moment" could be FSD, really, but it could be a real EAP based on for example the FSD codebase instead of the current branch, with perhaps one or two extra features thrown in for FSD cars that use the third forward camera. That I could see happening sooner than FSD itself coming in any meaningful way.
But it is also possible we keep trudging along on the same dreary AP1 parody path as we are on now and the only way real FSD/EAP manifests itself to us in the short-term is when Tesla gets around to staging the coast-to-coast demo and posts it on YouTube. That will get Tesla some PR, it may or may not be related to what gets released.
Frankly, at this point, I'd be happy with getting the "8.1 moment", which is also soon nine(ish) months late...
lunitiks
Cool James & Black Teacher
Here's my take on the FSD. I think Tesla is keeping quiet because 1) they don't really have to say anything more (the narrative is already out there and can't be helped by more talk), 2) they are focusing on Model 3 which is more important anyway and 3) maybe they've learned something at least, sometimes staying quiet about forward-looking stuff is just better than saying things that end up being inaccurate...
Whether or not it will result in a "9.0 moment" anytime soon, who knows. I doubt a "9.0 moment" could be FSD, really, but it could be a real EAP based on for example the FSD codebase instead of the current branch, with perhaps one or two extra features thrown in for FSD cars that use the third forward camera. That I could see happening sooner than FSD itself coming in any meaningful way.
But it is also possible we keep trudging along on the same dreary AP1 parody path as we are on now and the only way real FSD/EAP manifests itself to us in the short-term is when Tesla gets around to staging the coast-to-coast demo and posts it on YouTube. That will get Tesla some PR, it may or may not be related to what gets released.
Frankly, at this point, I'd be happy with getting the "8.1 moment", which is also soon nine(ish) months late...
think back to 9 months ago. we heard about: FSD demo announcement to drive from west to east coast + 3-6 months definite departure between AEP and FSD features. these two datapoints together could tell us some FSD functionality would go to mS, mX drivers to validate whether demo will be possible end of Q4'2017. i still believe demo will happen but due to delay in releasing FSD features, demo will likely slip to Q2'2018 (this is a WAG) to give 6 months of testing after first FSD features go to drivers for validation. this information was shared based on old autopilot executives in charge. with the new guy in charge, the strategy may be different and these timelines completely useless without additional input from Elon over twitter and/or investor calls.
I really can't understand some of these guesses. Here's the 5 sec review:
1) Tesla announces AP2 and releases FSD video and intent to xcountry in 2017. AP1 parity expected Dec 2016.
2) FSD video turns out to be a fraud.
3) AP1 parity is still a fail 1 year later
In these conditions, some are still predicting Tesla will make a full autonomous xcountry trip in 2017?!?! The only other claim on the list created when they announced AP2 and EVERY other claim has failed to be met?!?!
Spoiler alert: They are making the video right now. They will drop it by the end of the year, and it will be a fraud just like the last one.
1) Tesla announces AP2 and releases FSD video and intent to xcountry in 2017. AP1 parity expected Dec 2016.
2) FSD video turns out to be a fraud.
3) AP1 parity is still a fail 1 year later
In these conditions, some are still predicting Tesla will make a full autonomous xcountry trip in 2017?!?! The only other claim on the list created when they announced AP2 and EVERY other claim has failed to be met?!?!
Spoiler alert: They are making the video right now. They will drop it by the end of the year, and it will be a fraud just like the last one.
1 i agree with you.
2 seems like an assumption and a big one. think back to march 2016 when they've shown m3 prototype, would you call them a fraud in Mar 2017? never forget that there is no ETA for FSD and they dont owe us anything. i'm going to be really upset if there is no lvl3 by 2020 in m3 with FSD but even then, they're still not obligated since we bought without ETA being set.
3 completely agree but not surprised by this. many have reported on AP1 operation 1 year after it was enabled. i'm comparing AP1 at 1 year of development (i.e. 2015) and AP2 at 1 year (i.e. 2017). i'd say they're doing better with AP2 progress than AP1.
btw, i initially disagreed with your post but realized you just seem upset at other posters who haven't adjusted their expectations.
spoiler alert source link?
3Victoria
Active Member
My view:
- EM thinks FSD is possible and they have a team working on it. BTW, a smaller NN model is progress, it means they have made it more efficient -- same functionality, less memory. Now they can grow it again with new functionality.
- AP1 = Mobileye object-recognition + Tesla driving-logic.
- AP2 = Tesla NN object recognition + Tesla driving-logic.
- FSD = deep NN + integrated mapping and route-planning.
- AP1/AP2 and FSD are separate teams. Features might cross-over, but would require separate development, or the two codebases running in parallel.
- Automatic wipers are nice, but I have survived my entire life without them -- they are a low-priority goal for teams tahh have much else on their plates.
- Choice was: add AP2 hw to all cars, or face having a large number of cars not AP2/FSD capable. They chose the best hw available for an affordable price. hw improves all the time, and installed hw will change. The processing unit is easily retrofittable. *If* hw2.5 is needed, it can be retrofitted into the (relative to number of Model 3s) small number of S/X.
- Development trials during October were mainly debugging the hacked on mapping and route-planning software onto the NN model. The November demo had no interventions. I say that is a quite effective *demo* -- but always take demos with a grain of salt -- they usually reflect a specific set of circumstances. The difficulty with true FSD is generalizing it to most situations.
I think that we should put ourselves into the shoes of Tesla. They are juggling sw and hw development. They took a risk by installing AP2 hw into *every* car. Sw development is always fraught with delays -- this is especially true for NN development, which is on the bleeding-edge. I feel that EM is being honest in his foresight given what he kwows/knew at the time of his predictions. He is overly optimistic in his time estimates, and we can account for that, but I think his optimism has actually sped development.
All the focus is on getting the 3-ramp done. Most hw and sw teams will be focused on that. I thin kit is going better than I had expected.
- EM thinks FSD is possible and they have a team working on it. BTW, a smaller NN model is progress, it means they have made it more efficient -- same functionality, less memory. Now they can grow it again with new functionality.
- AP1 = Mobileye object-recognition + Tesla driving-logic.
- AP2 = Tesla NN object recognition + Tesla driving-logic.
- FSD = deep NN + integrated mapping and route-planning.
- AP1/AP2 and FSD are separate teams. Features might cross-over, but would require separate development, or the two codebases running in parallel.
- Automatic wipers are nice, but I have survived my entire life without them -- they are a low-priority goal for teams tahh have much else on their plates.
- Choice was: add AP2 hw to all cars, or face having a large number of cars not AP2/FSD capable. They chose the best hw available for an affordable price. hw improves all the time, and installed hw will change. The processing unit is easily retrofittable. *If* hw2.5 is needed, it can be retrofitted into the (relative to number of Model 3s) small number of S/X.
- Development trials during October were mainly debugging the hacked on mapping and route-planning software onto the NN model. The November demo had no interventions. I say that is a quite effective *demo* -- but always take demos with a grain of salt -- they usually reflect a specific set of circumstances. The difficulty with true FSD is generalizing it to most situations.
I think that we should put ourselves into the shoes of Tesla. They are juggling sw and hw development. They took a risk by installing AP2 hw into *every* car. Sw development is always fraught with delays -- this is especially true for NN development, which is on the bleeding-edge. I feel that EM is being honest in his foresight given what he kwows/knew at the time of his predictions. He is overly optimistic in his time estimates, and we can account for that, but I think his optimism has actually sped development.
All the focus is on getting the 3-ramp done. Most hw and sw teams will be focused on that. I thin kit is going better than I had expected.
They'll get get fsd done for current owners of ap2, ap2.5. the quiet period is just a detour. Don't forget company other big projects which may have taken focus from fsd/Tesla network. Model 3 (you mentioned), 100 day battery install in Australia, and restore fsd team morale / fix turnover. I would not be surprised if engineers left because of leadership that was promptly removed (suppose not promptly enough). Having made their excuses, ì'd like my m3 to drive itself from factory to my garage on fsd today
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