FSD rewrite will go out on Oct 20 to limited beta

[GoSharks]

Oh, you are going to there.
Let me find the threads on this forum of "experts" dressing down Tesla, how gamed that was and how big of a farce that video is.
Oh, and how many attempts it took them to get that single shot.

Is that where he is getting his "previous" experience with FSD on Tesla from? This seems very doubtful to me.

And then seeing it in the hands of Tesla owners using on their own cars, at their discretion (as cringe worthy as some of the first videos were) to say "it [FSD beta release] does not really change much wrt [with regard to] what we have seen before"

Really!?

Take it up with green, not me. I do believe that it could be a valid point of view though, and that nothing he is saying is contradictory.

I don't know why you are so worked up about green. It's been like a week and you're still at it.

 

[mikes_fsd]

Take it up with green, not me. I do believe that it could be a valid point of view though, and that nothing he is saying is contradictory.

I don't know why you are so worked up about green. It's been like a week and you're still at it.

If you started to do the same things, I would be worked up with you.
But mostly it is the fact that I looked up to him for unbiased info (I report what I see, good/bad, don't shoot the messenger), but recently he's changed to willfully force his bias into the conversation.

I don't know why are you so worked up about defending green! He's a grown man, he can stand up for himself.

 

[GoSharks]

If you started to do the same things, I would be worked up with you.
But mostly it is the fact that I looked up to him for unbiased info (I report what I see, good/bad, don't shoot the messenger), but recently he's changed to willfully force his bias into the conversation.

I don't know why are you so worked up about defending green! He's a grown man, he can stand up for himself.

I don't particularly care about green one way or another. However, it appears to me that you're throwing a lot of things out in this thread that seem somewhat misleading about his statements.

What's his bias? That he feels Tesla is still a long way off to robo-taxis? Frankly, I agree. FSD beta right now is [literally] step 2 out of 5.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Oh, you are going to there.
Let me find the threads on this forum of "experts" dressing down Tesla, how gamed that was and how big of a farce that video is.
Oh, and how many attempts it took them to get that single shot.

Is that where he is getting his "previous" experience with FSD on Tesla from? This seems very doubtful to me.

And then seeing it in the hands of Tesla owners using on their own cars, at their discretion (as cringe worthy as some of the first videos were) to say "it [FSD beta release] does not really change much wrt [with regard to] what we have seen before"

Really!?

Here you go: Autonomy Investor Day - April 22 at 2pm ET
I don't remember anyone claiming the video was faked (I wouldn't be surprised though). You can see the old @diplomat33 in the thread. The current @diplomat33 is a glimpse of your disillusioned future self.
I'm pretty much saying the same stuff.

 

[mikes_fsd]

The current @diplomat33 is a glimpse of your disillusioned future self.

Keep dreaming!
I'm here with eyes wide open!

 

[mikes_fsd]

Here you go: Autonomy Investor Day - April 22 at 2pm ET
I don't remember anyone claiming the video was faked

The first occurrence of the word "staged" in that thread is by, you might have guessed, @diplomat33 .

I think the video is staged but designed to illustrate what the real FSD demo will probably look like.

Just in case you were for real.

 

[turnem]

There’s a lot going on this thread but out there in the real world there are a few undeniable truths. There are Teslas driving people from point A to point B while on autopilot and doing some really cool things in between. They are also some head scratcher moments but it’s to be expected.

THIS is what I signed up for when I bought my Tesla and I’m excited to see it happening. And frankly, happening sooner than I thought it would.

There’s still a long way to go but I’ve seen enough to convince me that some really cool *sugar* is about to go down!

 

[Daniel in SD]

The first occurrence of the word "staged" in that thread is by, you might have guessed, @diplomat33 .



Just in case you were for real.

Haha. No. He was a true believer back then!
He was talking about this video which was posted before the presentation. The thread was started a couple days before the presentation.

 

[powertoold]

There’s still a long way to go but I’ve seen enough to convince me that some really cool *sugar* is about to go down!

What's scary is if Tesla wins the race, they'll pull 10 years ahead of the competition.... The better your NNs get, the better the car is able to understand its surroundings, the better you're able to catch edge cases, the bigger your fleet, the more edge cases you gather, the better your FSD, the more people buy your cars, the safer your FSD, the more people will use it...

 

[MP3Mike]

And to maybe get things back on track, a few more short videos from James Locke:

 

[Bill Price]

When it's a company car, well you know how rentals are treated, right?

What you are saying is that if it's a company car or rental being driven, those drivers tend to "drive it like they stole it?"

 

[Redbrick]

No doubt Elon may have said this, I admire him very much for what he has accomplished, and his vision and commitment,I truly believe he is one of the greatest visionaries we have seen in the last two centuries, but I do take some things he says with a grain of salt.

I doubt the pilot was truly speechless, unless he was a brand new pilot, we pilots have been hearing how we are going to be obsolete, pretty much since, and probably even before, I got my license. It could happen of course, probably even likely it will.

I am curious as to how many people here who believe in totally driverless cars, and would get in one now without a thought, would also get on a pilotless aircraft?

No judgement from me on this, if you believe they are safe enough that is entirely up to you. I know it's a slightly different proposition in that when things go wrong in aircraft, the consequences can easily be more than a fender bender, but I'm curious.

He said that's how we were when elevators were driven by humans. ;-)

 

[Soda Popinski]

How can you explain, watching the videos of FSD beta out in the wild, after not seeing anything like it before from Tesla, that this does not bring Tesla closer to the future of robotaxis?

Straw man argument, as I never said it doesn't. I think it seriously brings us closer to robotaxies.

I'm sorry I'm having a hard time seeing green just thought he would see a different NN name in the code.

I am not Green. You should ask him.

Please hand hold me through your logic.

You claim Green said it wasn't an FSD rewrite. Green said it wasn't the FSD rewrite he's waiting for. Green's statement does NOT mean this isn't an FSD rewrite, it just means it's not the one he's waiting for. I'm not sure if I can make it clearer. Perhaps an analogy: Green points at a Model 3 and says "That isn't MY Tesla." Then you claim Green pointed at the Model 3 and said "This isn't A Tesla."

 

[helvio]

Green points at a Model 3 and says "That isn't MY Tesla."

Of course not. M3 and MY are different.

 

[Soda Popinski]

I’ve noticed that the FSD beta seems to improve without a software version update. I’ve heard and read from multiple beta users that the software is not able to do a maneuver on one day and is able to do it another day? Some kind of secret sauce is going on.

Plus, Elon tweeted that his beta software is a few days ahead of the current users. Why would he even say that if it’s only a few days and what does that even mean?

One theory is map updates, which points to some amount of extra detail in the maps probably between standard SD maps and HD maps.

So maybe Tesla has other cards up their sleeve that they haven't shown yet? Maybe a further architectural change on the horizon, possibly with the introduction of Dojo?

I suspect this is the case. Karpathy's February talk showed off Pseudo-LIDAR. If this was part of the current rewrite, I'd think Elon would have mentioned it, as it seems like a pretty big deal. If it improves perception performance significantly, I'd expect them to roll it into FSD. Perhaps HW3 can't handle it, and it'll have to wait for HW4. Alternatively, it is in there, but they don't wait to mention anything that sounds like "LIDAR." Edit: Upon rewatching that part of the talk, per-pixel depths (pseudo-LIDAR) may be required for the combined view NN, so if that's the case, it's already in there.

That's the beauty of neural nets. You never know what you're going to get!

Funny, my mama always said life is like a neural net...

 

[powertoold]

One theory is map updates, which points to some amount of extra detail in the maps probably between standard SD maps and HD maps.

If so, he woulda have said it's the same version or something to that effect. If a map is updated and can be pushed remotely, then all cars should get the best, most updated maps?

I don't know. Elon's tweet seems interesting, along with Karpathy's tweet about this "rewrite" as the result of many months of work, not years. Perhaps Elon's tweet has something to do with their extremely quick pace of improvement.

Elon's been saying that level 5 will come quicker than we think as well, along with his unwavering confidence in Tesla's sensor suite.

If the next update shows a dramatic improvement again, the lidar camp should throw their hands up and get rid of lidar as Elon said

 

[Soda Popinski]

If so, he woulda have said it's the same version or something to that effect. If a map is updated and can be pushed remotely, then all cars should get the best, most updated maps?

Not necessarily. Could just be the beta versions instructed to download the latest maps, or maybe only the beta is utilizing the extra data. Alternatively, there could be no changes, and the drivers are seeing the overall improvements due to confirmation bias. For example, they say it handles this particular intersection better than it did yesterday, hence an improvement, but maybe it had a 50/50 of handing that intersection well or poorly. Since they recall it doing badly the day before, seeing it do well today seems like an improvement. At the same time, it handled some other intersection well yesterday, but poorly today - they didn't note it doing well yesterday, and just chalk up today's poor handling to being in beta instead of the opposite of an improvement.

If the next update shows a dramatic improvement again, the lidar camp should throw their hands up and get rid of lidar as Elon said

Ever since I saw VIDAR/Pseudo LIDAR, I've been even more convinced LIDAR isn't necessary. Camera placement may still be an issue, though. I wonder if cams could be incorporated into the headlight housing to provide better cross traffic views...

 

[mikes_fsd]

I never said it doesn't. I think it seriously brings us closer to robotaxies

I was not clear, Green said that, not you.
I should have been clearer.

 

[Bill Price]

I was not clear, Green said that, not you.
I should have been clearer.

Windex challenged?

 

[Bladerskb]

What's scary is if Tesla wins the race, they'll pull 10 years ahead of the competition.... The better your NNs get, the better the car is able to understand its surroundings, the better you're able to catch edge cases, the bigger your fleet, the more edge cases you gather, the better your FSD, the more people buy your cars, the safer your FSD, the more people will use it...

This is a joke. You are allowing the illusion of pieces of parts coming together to cloud your judgment.

What you see in the FSD Beta is rudimentary NN perception networks that Tesla had hooked up to a conventional c++ driving policy. This is what you say is 10 years ahead? Are you being serious?