FSD Transfer - NO - but Tesla says it's really OK

[Knightshade]

So a random forum member who takes data from a spreadsheet that anyone can add to. And you're extrapolating data collected from an enthusiast forum to the overall ownerbase. Real reliable source you've got there

I mean- vastly more reliable than yours....which appears to be.... nothing.

Likewise, we can back-check his data against changes in Teslas reported revenues (or in a couple of cases, the few times Tesla had made any public statements on take rate, which again largely lined up with his estimates). Or at least people who care about facts and data can so it doesn't appear this would be of any value to you.

Admittedly your "just assume everyone who paid for it is stupid, or at least stupidly rich" method of "analysis" DOES require less effort.

As does what appears to be your current effort of "just assume many thousands of people are going out of their way to lie to Troy to provide misleading data because... REASONS" is simpler than actually accepting the fact you're wrong and deep digging a deeper hole without admitting it.

 

[terranx]

I mean- vastly more reliable than yours....which appears to be.... nothing.

Likewise, we can back-check his data against changes in Teslas reported revenues (or in a couple of cases, the few times Tesla had made any public statements on take rate, which again largely lined up with his estimates). Or at least people who care about facts and data can so it doesn't appear this would be of any value to you.

Admittedly your "just assume everyone who paid for it is stupid, or at least stupidly rich" method of "analysis" DOES require less effort.

As does what appears to be your current effort of "just assume many thousands of people are going out of their way to lie to Troy to provide misleading data because... REASONS" is simpler than actually accepting the fact you're wrong and deep digging a deeper hole without admitting it.

If you go back to my initial post, the only claim I made was that people buying FSD does not imply that those people felt FSD to be worth it. Which is true, there is no relation. From there, I speculated that most people who bought it either don't care about the money or didn't realize Tesla is a bad faith actor. But you're right, I cannot definitively prove that. Just like you cannot definitively prove how many people have bought FSD nor how many people consider the expense to be worth it.

While I do care about facts and data, the truth of the matter is there are no facts and data available. The only source is an individual taking a non-random sample from spreadsheets that have had verifiably false information posted to them in the past and extrapolating that flawed data to an entire fleet. That has no statistical validity.

What is verifiable is that Tesla has continuously made claims about FSD's capabilities and timelines that are false.

 

[Knightshade]

If you go back to my initial post, the only claim I made was that people buying FSD does not imply that those people felt FSD to be worth it. Which is true, there is no relation.

Except, there is.

Again, in terms of economics the worth of a good is what the market is willing to pay for it.

This is econ 101 stuff.

While I do care about facts and data, the truth of the matter is there are no facts and data available. The only source is an individual taking a non-random sample from spreadsheets that have had verifiably false information posted to them in the past and extrapolating that flawed data to an entire fleet. That has no statistical validity.

It does though. I've even explained how it does, and how we can back-check this data to conclude it is reasonably inline with reality.

Meanwhile you were telling us what the data covered before you even knew what the data was, let alone what it covered- insisting it probably included subscriptions when it explicitly did not for example.

Your attempt to equivocate "I have absolutely NO data to support my argument, which is just as good as the years of data from thousands of owners YOU have because it's from a 3rd party" notwithstanding.

 

[EVNow]

By your definition, if someone gets scammed out of their money, that the scam was worth something. Cool. In that case, yes, FSD is completely worth it despite being a scam.

"Scam" is when someone tells you they are giving you something now and they don't.

Its not a scam when the order page clearly states what is available now and what is coming up later - esp. so when
- Tesla is one of the heaviest covered topic in the world of auto
- Thousands upon thousands of hours have been spent by people tweeting and writing about FSD (or lack of it) on social media

At this point if someone buys FSD without knowing what it is and years of Elon saying FSD will come this year and it doesn't .... then they are simply not doing even basic homework. How do such people even drive cars and text at the same time ?

 

[bradtem]

It's clear that many people feel that Tesla's promise of future self-driving is worth what they are paying. Generally, I don't see many people say they feel the small set of initial features they get today merit the price.

Now, it's not all hard to see why a large group of people would find high value in actual real full self driving. Particularly among Tesla buyers who are wealthier early adopters compared to the general marketplace.

The somewhat surprising thing is how much people have been willing to pay for the mere promise of it. Particularly when there seems to be little reason to believe that you need to buy it advance to get it when it comes. There is the hint that the price will go up when it finally ships, and you are somehow "getting in on it" early at a lower price, but that's quite tenuous in my view. And yet they buy. But then, lots of people back kickstarter projects rather than just buy the product when it goes on the market later. With kickstarters you have equally uncertain delivery but from tiny companies, not companies with trillion dollar market caps. And if you just want to invest for future success, Tesla stock is a much better vehicle for that, or the stocks of other companies doing self-driving you think more.

It is likely, in my mind, that Tesla will at some point realize that you can't deliver "full" self-driving with just the hardware in older cars. It will take them a very long time to admit that, of course, though deployment by another vendor with more modern hardware might cause this change. I am curious as to what they will do:

1. Just keep plugging at it, continuing to hope that they can do it with the current hardware, and see how far they can punt that down the road
2. Eat the cost of upgrading some or even all of the cars to the better hardware
3. Offer refunds to the FSD buyers whose cars are not suitable for upgrade, or offer the choice of a refund or paying even more for an upgrade. The refund may also be partial saying, "Well, we gave you these other features which are worth $4,000 and we will refund the rest."
4. Just keep the money (might result in a lawsuit.)

It becomes difficult if they have a new model of the cars, with new hardware in it, and they are able to deliver FSD on that. At this point can they keep punting doing it with 2016's cameras down the road?

 

[Bouba]

I never expected robotaxis...I thought it was just an humorous example of Mr Musk’s ambition. I never imagined that in my lifetime (or at least the life of my car) it would be legalized for European or British roads. What I want is a car that has the most safety features and easiest to drive...FSD fits that bill. And the thought that it can evolve over the life of the car into something that gets ever more competent is reassuring.
€7,500 is a lot of money..but on a new car, let’s face it, it’s just another option tick on the order form

 

[Knightshade]

It is likely, in my mind, that Tesla will at some point realize that you can't deliver "full" self-driving with just the hardware in older cars. It will take them a very long time to admit that, of course, though deployment by another vendor with more modern hardware might cause this change. I am curious as to what they will do:

1. Just keep plugging at it, continuing to hope that they can do it with the current hardware, and see how far they can punt that down the road
2. Eat the cost of upgrading some or even all of the cars to the better hardware
3. Offer refunds to the FSD buyers whose cars are not suitable for upgrade, or offer the choice of a refund or paying even more for an upgrade. The refund may also be partial saying, "Well, we gave you these other features which are worth $4,000 and we will refund the rest."
4. Just keep the money (might result in a lawsuit.)

It becomes difficult if they have a new model of the cars, with new hardware in it, and they are able to deliver FSD on that. At this point can they keep punting doing it with 2016's cameras down the road?

FWIW it'd be fairly trivial to upgrade the cameras (they're already upgrading 2016 cars with newer cameras today-for free- though they're just a different color filter- there's nothing that'd stop them from putting higher resolution ones in those same spots).

Likewise upgrading the driving computer is easy (and has already been done on all HW2.x cars once)

What would be much harder is adding additional cameras in locations there's not already cameras.

 

[EVNow]

One way to figure out how much “FSD” is worth is to look at competitor ADAS pricing. Has anyone compiled how much it would cost to go from base model of a competitor to full set of ADAS features ?

 

[Knightshade]

One way to figure out how much “FSD” is worth is to look at competitor ADAS pricing. Has anyone compiled how much it would cost to go from base model of a competitor to full set of ADAS features ?

I know before GM stopped offering supercruise it would cost between $15,000-$25,000 to go up in trim enough to be able to add it, depending on the model.

And then after I think 3 years you ALSO had to pay a monthly fee on top.

For a system that does far less than FSD right now does.

I vaguely recall Lucid having some similarly ridiculous pricing for a likewise less capable system.

EDIT- So Lucid doesn't seem to really offer a detailed explanation of their dream drive pro system but from what little I can find it's basically a less capable version of basic free autopilot when on the highway, though offers most of the other FSD features like auto park. For $9000.

 

[EVNow]

I know before GM stopped offering supercruise it would cost between $15,000-$25,000 to go up in trim enough to be able to add it, depending on the model.

And then after I think 3 years you ALSO had to pay a monthly fee on top.

For a system that does far less than FSD right now does.

I vaguely recall Lucid having some similarly ridiculous pricing for a likewise less capable system.

Yes, I think most people are blissfully unaware of competitor pricing.

Someone feels $12k is too much (for that person) and declares the price to be “insane”.

I think given all the features and you can get it without having to buy a higher trim, $12k is a fair market price … for what you get today I.e. excluding FSD beta.

 

[bradtem]

FWIW it'd be fairly trivial to upgrade the cameras (they're already upgrading 2016 cars with newer cameras today-for free- though they're just a different color filter- there's nothing that'd stop them from putting higher resolution ones in those same spots).

Likewise upgrading the driving computer is easy (and has already been done on all HW2.x cars once)

What would be much harder is adding additional cameras in locations there's not already cameras.

One would hope the upgrade to cameras and computers would be doable considering the amount people are paying for the FSD package. The real concern is if they need to add a LIDAR and/or an imaging radar. They have sworn they won't add the LIDAR of course, and haven't entirely sworn of the imaging radar.

The problem with the LIDAR is where to put it. With a glass roof it's hard to put on top. You can put a forward one with the cameras at the rear-view mirror but that might require a new windshield, though it's not impossible. There are LIDARs that go in front headlights but they get a very low point of view.

But anyway, yes, I agree that reasonable hardware upgrades can be done within the amount paid. But remember, Tesla is expecting to pay nothing more, except perhaps an HW4 upgrade which is not too hard to do. Suddenly adding $4,000 to the upgrade will not be a choice they will like.

 

[Knightshade]

The problem with the LIDAR is where to put it.

The trash, since it won't be needed.

Tesla already gets pretty good perception with 2014-era cameras, let alone if they upgrade to modern ones.


I do kinda wish they'd have gone with vastly better radar- unlike lidar it's actually useful to see through fog or to bounce past a car in front of you to what's ahead... but I don't think it's needed for better-than-human perception, it'd just be a nice to have and given the chip situation understandable to skip.

But anyway, yes, I agree that reasonable hardware upgrades can be done within the amount paid. But remember, Tesla is expecting to pay nothing more, except perhaps an HW4 upgrade which is not too hard to do. Suddenly adding $4,000 to the upgrade will not be a choice they will like.

I can't see upgraded cameras being anywhere near that amount of $, especially in volume they'd be buying them.... so the only real obstacles would be either:

The wiring is insufficient (power or bandwidth)-not sure what the limitations are in the factory harness for those spots... I don't know the answer on that one (not sure anybody here does but would love to see it if they do)

or

They need to add cameras in locations that lack them now- and thus no wiring exists at all, nor mounting locations.

 

[Ramphex]

I think 2021 is a bad year to use as an example. It was a year of guess what? The good ol try outs. “Hey buy this $10k software, press the button, stress yourself out driving extremely carefully, and maybe you’ll get to play with the beta!!!” FOMO in overdrive.

 

[Ramphex]

I’m sure there will be something big this year that’ll make people flock to beta again, just to realize it’s still not worth the $12k.

The deceiving fanboy YouTube videos don’t help. “Drove a trillion miles with no disengagements, REVOLUTIONARY UNREAL OMGZLOLWOW”

If I made a video of just my work to home commute and everyone watched it before buying, the “take rate” would drop drastically. Between phantom braking, lane pinballing, switching lanes mid 6 lane 4-way intersection, taking wrong turns that aren’t correlating with the GPS, putting on turn signals and not turning, switching lanes, and going straight, playing whack-a-mole with the distracting “apply torque” message, almost locking up the brakes for a flashing yellow light, aggressively braking before a red light then letting go and slowly cruising to a stop, the list goes on….

One can argue “well it’s beta” and sure I can accept the flaws due to the fact that it’s still “beta” but when you’re no where near releasing something you’ve been promising to release for years, and then under-deliver and raise the price….. well, one has to draw a line somewhere in them getting bamboozled. The alternative is to stick your head in the sand and yell FSD IS DA BOMB, TSLA 4 LYF, I’M A FANBOY AND I REFUSE TO SEE THE OBVIOUS (whether it’s not wanting to admit to making a mistake trusting the empty promises, or just legitimately not seeing the big picture)

 

[drtimhill]

If I made a video of just my work to home commute and everyone watched it before buying, the “take rate” would drop drastically.

So do it.

 

[babaice]

The price of FSD is increasing every now and then.

Selling it to a dealer, the FSD goes away. If I get into an accident and get salvaged, FSD is gone(Insurance dont pay for FSD).

When I buy software, like MSOFFICE or WINDOWS, I get to keep the software until it gets outdated and unuseable.

I understand this shady practice to MAXIMIZE the profit. I get it.

Even so, It should do what Microsoft does at least.

Meaning that it should bind with a person and get updates for X years.

For $5000 FSD was totally worth it but $12000? No f.... way. Many enthusiast here likes to upgrade their Tesla every 2~6 years. But buying FSD every time they purchase a new TESLA

Simply don't make sense to me. Unless you are crazy rich and don't care about money at all.

 

[azred]

Welcome to the board! Might want to do a search on that topic.

 

[JulienW]

FSD Transfer - NO - but Tesla says it's really OK

On the earnings call last week, Tesla was asked about FSD transfer. They said they really effectively do that, because when you trade in your car to them they increase the trade-in allowance because you have FSD, so you can just purchase it with your new car using the extra trade in money...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[boonedocks]

If you lease a car and take the subscription for 3 years the cost would be $6k.

If you lease the car with FSD & if the residual is 50%, you would have paid .... $6k

If you are in a position to lease and were considering the subscription it would be a wash . Wish I could be a leaser.

As is my car is the family weekend beater and my 100+ mile a day commute makes my car a buy / sell "fairly often" one. Paid for FSD 2 times now on it and got nothing close to what I paid for FSD for my resale. Despite what people "think" vs "know' the resale value is not there for pre-paying for FSD.

After fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me, I will certainly pay a subscription fee, whatever it is, once something viable is actually released.

 

[Ramphex]

So do it.

Why? I support the FSD project, despite it currently sucking. Why invest my time into setting up recording equipment, doing the editing, and posting just to bring negative attention to it? That yields me no benefit. It’ll probably just get trashed by fanboiz that refuse to accept the reality that they’re now buying $12k worth of snake oil.

I wonder why the “fool me once…. Fool me twice…” saying doesn’t apply to EM with his FSD promises. How many cars do you think have been purchased with FSD and crashed or sold with those owners never getting a chance to actually use any sort of FSD? (A couple of gimmicky features like summon are NOT “FSD”)