FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

[jebinc]

I don't think HW is the limiting factor. Its the software ... so we don't really know.

Better question, to me, is will Tesla get to L3 level quality (irrespective of whether they take liability or not), in the useful lifespan of HW3 cars. Earliest Model 3s are already 5 years old. So, let us say 5 more years of useful lifespan. Will FSD get to 1 disengagement in 10,000 miles from where it is today (1 in 20 with V12 ?) in 5 years ....

ps : In FSD news today ... in my neighborhood a car in front of me stopped / parked. FSD just went behind the car and was waiting .... I disengaged to drive around. May be eventually FSD would have figured out the car had stopped and moved ... definitely not "human like".

In a way it is “human like,” as it seems Tesla is relying more now on what the lead car (driven by a human) does than its own Neural network.

P.S. Definitely seems (to me) that HW3 cars are crippled with low res cameras, poor placement, no front camera, etc.

 

[EVNow]

P.S. Definitely seems (to me) that HW3 cars are crippled with low res cameras, poor placement, no front camera, etc.

There is no doubt cameras are worse than human eye - placement in particular. Resolution always, for years to come. But the question is can software make up for that by routing such that the car doesn't have to go through challenging routes - like UPS or Waymo does.

 

[rlsd]

With auto max you don't get to set an offsent. In manual mode FSD doesn't have a fixed offset, only percentage based...

My auto max offset setting has no way to enter percentage. Only 2 options: Relative and Absolute.

 

[KLam]

5 percent.
And if ASSO is on and Absolute Speed is selected then the offset is 75mph.

Thank you. I think the offset warning setting (in terms of mph) have effect on the ASSO. FSDS will not want to set off the warning which seems to be also a function of the ASSO offset percentage. In your case of 5 percent of 30 mph is 31.5 mph. So the warning should be at 31.5+7 = 38.5 mph. If you set the ASSO offset percentage too high, then the offset warning effect is minimized.

That's my guess only. So do your own testings to verify. I always set my ASSO offset percentage to 0. and offset warning to 5 mph and have not have too much over speed problem.

 

[rlsd]

So why do you not understand what it says?

View attachment 1034604

Note the separating line between the ASSO option and the Speed Limit Warning section. Try turning off ASSO and see what your screen looks like...

Maybe you have a non-USS car so it doesn't have the Summon section, which makes it more likely to misinterpret?

View attachment 1034606

I think you misunderstood the meaning of Speed Limit Warning

 

[jebinc]

There is no doubt cameras are worse than human eye - placement in particular. Resolution always, for years to come. But the question is can software make up for that by routing such that the car doesn't have to go through challenging routes - like UPS or Waymo does.

No. Wayne and others use additional sensors, like Lidar. You can’t put lipstick on this pig (but keep trying ).

HW3 crap cameras, lack thereof, and poor placement are crippling. L3 not happening - best case, very limited geofenced area. L4, NFW!

 

[JulienW]

My man flaunting his VIN in the open like a wide open aristocratic sphincter.

If you want VINs EVERY car MUST by law publicly display the VIN on driver's side dash visible from the outside of the car.

 

[Larry Hutchinson]

Yesterday evening, while driving to LaQuinta from Palm Springs, I had to disengage due to ….

… SpaceX!


We knew the approximate time of the launch and when we looked to the west, there it was. Fortunately, I was able to pull over and got a good view. Very cool. Was able to get a long iPhone video only part of which included my thumb.

Wish I had left “SpaceX launch” as the reason for disengagement (yes, I know it is unlikely any human would hear it.)

BTW, the car drove perfectly and the drive was very low stress. 2018 m3 on 12.3.1

 

[rlsd]

Thank you. I think the offset warning setting (in terms of mph) have effect on the ASSO. FSDS will not want to set off the warning which seems to be also a function of the ASSO offset percentage. In your case of 5 percent of 30 mph is 31.5 mph. So the warning should be at 31.5+7 = 38.5 mph. If you set the ASSO offset percentage too high, then the offset warning effect is minimized.

That's my guess only. So do your own testings to verify. I always set my ASSO offset percentage to 0. and offset warning to 5 mph and have not have too much over speed problem.

No. There is nothing called offset warning. The Speed Limit Warning means when there is a posted speed change the car gives a chime (weird long chime) or shows on the screen. It does that so you are prepared to speed up your car on freeway to avoid rearending because the car will slow down. That's all it does. The other numeric values have nothing to do with it.

 

[MP3Mike]

And if ASSO is on and Absolute Speed is selected then the offset is 75mph.

You are confusing two completely separate sections. If ASSO is on, there is no setting absolute/fixed/percentage for you to mess with.

I think you misunderstood the meaning of Speed Limit Warning

No, I think you are misunderstanding. It is right there:

You are setting it to either display something or chime when your speed goes over a threshold. If you turn the speed limit warning feature off, you can no longer adjust the relative/absolute or offset. (Because if you don't have the warning on there is no reason to change them.)

That section has nothing to do with FSD or ASSO.

 

[MP3Mike]

No. There is nothing called offset warning. The Speed Limit Warning means when there is a posted speed change the car gives a chime (weird long chime) or shows on the screen. It does that so you are prepared to speed up your car on freeway to avoid rearending because the car will slow down. That's all it does. The other numeric values have nothing to do with it.

No, that isn't at all what it does. The purpose is to warn you when you are speeding, so you can slow down and avoid getting pulled over.

It only does anything if you exceed the settings directly below it. It will never activate if you are going under the offset. i.e. you are travelling 40 MPH and get on the freeway with a 70 MPH limit, it will not display anything or chime at you. It is perfectly happy with you driving 40 MPH in a 70 MPH zone.

From the manual:

Which is why those settings get disabled if you turn the speed limit warning off.

 

[EVNow]

No. Wayne and others use additional sensors, like Lidar. You can’t put lipstick on this pig (but keep trying ).

Yet they choose easier routes and avoid tough ones. UPS uses humans and has been pointed out several times, humans don't have Lidar.

So - yes, you can put a lipstick on a pig. But the question is - will it fly

 

[kabin]

Another v12.3.3 drive this morning. It felt like TSLA was trying to punk me with the crazy throttle and brake action.

The brake logic feels like they are being applied in a test mode with a short discrete stabbing action and then quickly released to evaluate what to do next. Of course that usually means another round of stabbing brakes. Maybe the worst is when the vehicle is close to 0mph and the final brake stab is applied.

Acceleration feels similar to the brake logic with discrete phases of acceleration followed by a regen pull back. Sometimes it stab accelerates into a tailgate scenario. What the?!

Had one case of a delayed attempt to enter an intersection left turn lane with a moderate line of cars lined up.

The turn into my neighborhood had the usual early turn signal application. However, this time it initiated the signal before passing 2 business driveways.

I spent more time with ASSO and manual speed control and there only seem to be minor improvements with this release.

Hopefully they eventually take the time to minimize these simplistic one-size-fits-all solutions. As is I can't imagine the average consumer being impressed at $12k or $200/mo.

 

[diplomat33]

This is new behavior in V12 that I really like.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775142706349478213

 

[jebinc]

Another v12.3.3 drive this morning. It felt like TSLA was trying to punk me with the crazy throttle and brake action.

The brake logic feels like they are being applied in a test mode with a short discrete stabbing action and then quickly released to evaluate what to do next. Of course that usually means another round of stabbing brakes. Maybe the worst is when the vehicle is close to 0mph and the final brake stab is applied.

Acceleration feels similar to the brake logic with discrete phases of acceleration followed by a regen pull back. Sometimes it stab accelerates into a tailgate scenario. What the?!

Had one case of a delayed attempt to enter an intersection left turn lane with a moderate line of cars lined up.

The turn into my neighborhood had the usual early turn signal application. However, this time it initiated the signal before passing 2 business driveways.

I spent more time with ASSO and manual speed control and there only seem to be minor improvements with this release.

Hopefully they eventually take the time to minimize these simplistic one-size-fits-all solutions. As is I can't imagine the average consumer being impressed at $12k or $200/mo.

So, is the community consensus that v12.3.3 is a regression from v12.3.1?

 

[mgs333]

This is new behavior in V12 that I really like.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775142706349478213

Yes, same here. I saw similar new behavior this morning on 12.3.3 and was glad it finally does this.

Different topic: 12.3.3 still goes under speed limits consistently, maybe it's 2-3mph faster. However, 1 time it was still going 26 in a 35 zone with traffic going 40-42. This is a divided road with 2 lanes each way with a center divider, so it's not some small side street.

FSD 12 is infuriating for me to drive, sometimes I'll just slam the accelerator after being fed up with going so slow. Back to driving manually on surface streets.

 

[enemji]

There isn't enough storage nor compute in the universe to code the proper response to every possible combinations of inputs.

I don’t think you understand AI. It will extrapolate and derive decisions based upon it’s training, just like any human would.

 

[mongo]

I don’t think you understand AI. It will extrapolate and derive decisions based upon it’s training, just like any human would.

Right, approximations:

The only reason any approach could be feasible is that things can be generalized. Rather than deal directly with every combination of pixels that can be a car, the NN outputs show how "carish" an object is. Then the next layer(s) takes those approximations and acts on them.

For hand coding to work, it needs accurate and complete source data (categorization). If those layers are working, then there are still too many variable combinations to hand code and more approximation is needed.

 

[JulienW]

April Fools REPRISE. Still rock'n me the same 12.3 or as we (or JUST me left maybe) like to call it THE REAL FSD Beta and not that FAKE "Supervised" crap. Looking forward to getting on 24.x.x software with the holiday update release. Only 260 days to go. Merry Christmas.

 

[primedive]

No. Wayne and others use additional sensors, like Lidar. You can’t put lipstick on this pig (but keep trying ).

HW3 crap cameras, lack thereof, and poor placement are crippling. L3 not happening - best case, very limited geofenced area. L4, NFW!

A curious experiment would be if you take a myopic human, take off their glasses so now they see about as well as a 1.5MP camera, how well can they still drive? My impressions when testing FSD is that the issues are primarily control-related and garbage out, not about what the car can or can't see. I guess it might help for unprotected lefts with high speed, or high speed cross traffic, but I've been having a ton of problems unrelated to both.