FSD video completely fake?

[SlicedBr3ad]

Tesla PressKit regarding Model 3:

Press Kit | Tesla

• Curb weight:
  • 3549 lbs. (Model 3)
  • 3814 lbs. (Model 3 Long Range)
• Weight distribution:
  • 47% front, 53% rear (Model 3)
  • 48% front, 52% rear (Model 3 Long Range)

Put it on a scale and we will know it.

Or better:

Send me one and I will do it

Thank you for solving this! Good thinking.

 

[mongo]

Well, be this as it may (I can't estimate the reliability of such a claim) now we at least have a very clear detail to check the reliability of this anonymous poster against after the fact. Nobody before has suggested AFAIK that Model 3's smaller battery version would have a software-limited long range battery, so we shall see if the poster knows or does not know...

See:
Software locked 75kWh?
Which is where the mods may move this tangent.

Along with weight spec, the warranty numbers don't support the SR being a sw limited LR. However, since SR does not exist, it could be a change or being used to make LR more enticing.

In support of a sw limited pack: reducing cell count reduced acceleration and regen performance along with supercharging speed. The latter would require more chargers for the same number of cars in a span of time.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

See:
Software locked 75kWh?
Which is where the mods may move this tangent.

Fair enough. The speculation existed.

Along with weight spec, the warranty numbers don't support the SR being a sw limited LR. However, since SR does not exist, it could be a change or being used to make LR more enticing.

True, things could change - or could change e.g. for short-term. (Inventory management too, by shipping just one battery to the world...)

 

[lunitiks]

If anything, if this was PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPERS really posting this (I haven't seen the post itself - link? so we can judge if he really said that?), it makes me doubt him/her a bit more. It seems a bit unbelievable.

overview for PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPER

 

[andifu]

Some Research about this user:

All pics from here:

comments by PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPER

Regarding Model 3:

Regarding his work in Autopilot:

 

[lunitiks]

I saw that college student comment. Either that's what he is, or it was a joke (read context). Look further back, you'll see about a year ago he allegedly got job offers from Tesla, Google. This year he's dropped hints that he works/worked at the AP program.

I'm in the @AnxietyRanger camp: Let's wait and see if his LR/SR battery statement are true or not. He's posted quite a few 'factual' info about Autopilot the last months.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

overview for PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPER

Thanks.

News] New NVIDIA EULA prohibits Deep Learning on GeForce GPUs in data centers.

PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPER
•
21h


Tesla (Motors) puts the exact same battery in the Model 3 long range and standard version car. They limit your battery range in software. If you want the full capability, you pay an extra $10,000. But oh wait, you already paid for the hardware?

Let's see how this sub's opinions change when Elon Musk does the same thing as Nvidia.

 

[ohmman]

Eds is the proverbial grandfather who lived until 100 despite having smoked unfiltered cigarettes since he was 15.

“See? Cigarettes might not be dangerous!”

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Oh come on @ohmman. Eds worked at a Tesla seating contractor and had inside info. No black magic or lungs.

 

[ohmman]

Oh come on @ohmman. Eds worked at a Tesla seating contractor and had inside info. No black magic or lungs.

You miss the point entirely.

Sometimes being skeptical of claims is the correct stance, even if you wind up being wrong in the end. I'd love to see a breakdown of the individuals claiming inside knowledge here at TMC. How many fizzled out and were proven false, how many wound up being true? If it were even 50/50, you'd probably be listing many more than just "Eds" repeatedly (129, or about 1.5% of your posts mention him, according to the search function). It's more common that these claims are unfounded, especially on reddit. We should always leave an opening to their truth, but heavy skepticism against their validity is the reasonable response given the online experience.

My comment above was about the person making a claim, not about the grandfather. Make more sense?

 

[AnxietyRanger]

You miss the point entirely.

Sometimes being skeptical of claims is the correct stance, even if you wind up being wrong in the end. I'd love to see a breakdown of the individuals claiming inside knowledge here at TMC. How many fizzled out and were proven false, how many wound up being true? If it were even 50/50, you'd probably be listing many more than just "Eds" repeatedly (129, or about 1.5% of your posts mention him, according to the search function). It's more common that these claims are unfounded, especially on reddit. We should always leave an opening to their truth, but heavy skepticism against their validity is the reasonable response given the online experience.

My comment above was about the person making a claim, not about the grandfather. Make more sense?

The point is to entertain the info. Not to assume veracity. I find PM YOUR NIPS PAPERS a bit hard to believe at this time, though not impossible.

Let me just remind you guys of a few facts of similar threads by myself - or heavily advocated by myself:

Model X and no nosecone:
Model X mules - is the nose cone gone?

Model X and adaptive spoiler:
Model X mules show signs of a new spoiler?

Drive PX and Model X:
Model X mule(s) show signs of nVidia Tegra X1 Drive PX platform - no rear mirror!

Model X delays and Eds:
Delay in model X launch?

ALL of these were things where many people (even prominent people) on TMC said my theories were not plausible, were never happening etc., "MobilEye is the partner, not Nvidia!" etc. etc.

And all happened.

I still remember the day when adaptive spoiler was first spotted. Kudos to a lot of people here who changed their minds about me on that day. I had been the sole voice saying that, analyzing that for months. And then it came.

That doesn't mean everything I estimate comes to fruition, or that they come to fruition exactly as I estimate (for example AP "1.5" clearly existed but did not ship, and Drive PX came in second gen, not first... Is Model X (or was?) getting an "AP 1.5" before full-autonomous "AP 2.0" suite upgrade?), but it does mean some people do have too closed minds - they aren't entertaining possibilities IMO they realistically should be entertaining. That, I find, is my strength. I seem to be unusually open to seeing these things as possible. I am always surprised how closed so many people are to these possibilities.

Entertain the HUD. Thank you.

 

[Swift]

I saw that college student comment. Either that's what he is, or it was a joke (read context). Look further back, you'll see about a year ago he allegedly got job offers from Tesla, Google. This year he's dropped hints that he works/worked at the AP program.

I'm in the @AnxietyRanger camp: Let's wait and see if his LR/SR battery statement are true or not. He's posted quite a few 'factual' info about Autopilot the last months.

In the context of what he was replying to, I thought he might be making the point that he was educated along the lines of “I’m a college graduate and I get it”.

At the end of the day and beyond what this particular source says, all signs point to the FSD video being misleading. At a minimum in that it was on a commerce website for the purpose of selling a feature that most likely would not be delivered (or even introduced to regulators) by the time most late 2016 leases are over. And then there are the people who bought the car because of FSD. It’s going to be ugly.

Furthermore, Tesla makes the problem 1000 times worse with no (or misleading) communications so we’re left to look to sources where we can find them... enter PM YOUR NIPS PAPERS.

 

[JeffK]

At the end of the day and beyond what this particular source says, all signs point to the FSD video being misleading. At a minimum in that it was on a commerce website for the purpose of selling a feature that most likely would not be delivered (or even introduced to regulators) by the time most late 2016 leases are over.

I disagree, it was made abundantly clear that there wasn't even going to be a cross country demo until the end of 2017, at the earliest. The video was meant as a very small scale demo of the autopilot 2 hardware. In no way, shape, or form was a complete full self driving software suite promised to consumers before this.

Here's an update today:
Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[AnxietyRanger]

The latest on the FSD video timeline from Elon is if not late 2017 (there's still time), early 2018 then.

So we have a timeline.

 

[JeffK]

I love how people disagree with facts... It'd be nice if people would post why they disagreed

 

[AnxietyRanger]

This is Elon Musk in October, 2016:

We'll be able to do a demonstration guide of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York. So basically from home in LA to Times Square in New York. And then have the car go and park itself by the end of next year

Then in August, 2017 he said this:

It is certainly possible that I will have egg on my face on that front, but if it’s not at the end of the year it will be very close

So, all this points to late 2017 or early 2018.

Of course this means FSD demo cross-country, not a production FSD suite.

That said, Elon Musk said in January, 2017 we'd have differentiating FSD features in April-July, 2017. That has not happened.

 

[daktari]

I love how people disagree with facts... It'd be nice if people would post why they disagreed

So you have a product to sell, depending on hardware and software. It is not finished, but you want to sell it. Then you fix a video demoing the capability, with tampered software. And present this, in small print, as a hardware demo...
Do you not feel bad about defending such business ethics? Do you really trust they did not tamper with the hardware either?

 

[JeffK]

So you have a product to sell, depending on hardware and software. It is not finished, but you want to sell it. Then you fix a video demoing the capability, with tampered software. And present this, in small print, as a hardware demo...
Do you not feel bad about defending such business ethics? Do you really trust they did not tamper with the hardware either?

Yes, I do trust they didn't mess with the hardware.
As @AnxietyRanger stated, it was never promised any earlier. You simply inferred something from the video out of context from the public announcements.

Tesla on Twitter
Transcript: Elon Musk's Autopilot 2.0 Conference Call
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha

 

[AnxietyRanger]

@JeffK It is true FSD itself is not yet late, though the coast-to-coast video is cutting it awfully close.

FSD "differentiating features" and Enhancend Autopilot are late, though.

 

[JeffK]

@JeffK It is true FSD itself is not yet late, though the coast-to-coast video is cutting it awfully close.

FSD "differentiating features" and Enhancend Autopilot are late, though.

Very true.