General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mongo]

All eyes are focused on reaching the 5K/week production speed -- which is important for cash flow and margin. However, I see a much bigger issue with the overall model 3 production ramp plans.

The problem I see is that the end-goal seems to be 10k/week, and I do not think that is going to cut it! When the first half million reserved model 3 is on the roads visible to everyone and new ones can be ordered with a reasonable wait time (3-4 months), then demand will be more than BMW 3-series + Audi A4/S4 + Mercedes C-class added together world-wide.

Tesla will need to ramp production far higher than half a million cars per year to satisfy that. Can they put 2 more M3 lines into Fremont (in addition to the 2 planned initially) ? Can the Gigafactory (once fully built out) output enough battery packs for a million M3 per year ? If not, where are they going to build the extra capacity ?

This probably doesn't apply to the 3, but: ramping production to match demand is not always the best route. Eventually demand is lower, or the product/ manufacturing line is obsoleted and then you have less utilized capital equipment. For an example, look at the Nintendo approach to the Wii, they had a huge backlog of orders, but kept manufacturing as-is.
That said, if the Y is mostly common with the 3, and the next version Dreadnaught is even more efficient, then the Y line may also support additional 3 volume (or it may be swamped with Y orders).
GF1 is only 33%? completed, so lots of extra future capacity there to support S/X/3/ Semi/ Roadster/ PW/ PP packs.
At some point, Fremont will hit the physical limit of material in/out flow. 1 million cars per year is 2,700 per day, 114 per hour, 13 car haulers per hour, or one every 4.73 minutes 24/7/365. And that is finished goods, the material input will also be immense.

Is there still a limit in terms of paint booth emissions?

 

[Krugerrand]

Actually the unwise decision was bailing Tesla out that long ago I'm sure in retrospect they're sorry.

They did make money in the end on that deal, though they could have made more.

Do we know who the exact person was that said ‘write the check?’ I’d love to know and I think someone should interview that person.

 

[jeewee3000]

Who says he left of his own accord? Do you sign such a contract if they walk you out the door?

You don't sign a contract with a competition clause when you walk out/get fired. You sign it when you are hired to protect the employer if things turn sour.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Actually the unwise decision was bailing Tesla out that long ago I'm sure in retrospect they're sorry.

And Toyota for selling Fremont factory to Tesla for $42M

 

[Johann Koeber]

All eyes are focused on reaching the 5K/week production speed -- which is important for cash flow and margin. However, I see a much bigger issue with the overall model 3 production ramp plans.

The problem I see is that the end-goal seems to be 10k/week, and I do not think that is going to cut it! When the first half million reserved model 3 is on the roads visible to everyone and new ones can be ordered with a reasonable wait time (3-4 months), then demand will be more than BMW 3-series + Audi A4/S4 + Mercedes C-class added together world-wide.

Tesla will need to ramp production far higher than half a million cars per year to satisfy that. Can they put 2 more M3 lines into Fremont (in addition to the 2 planned initially) ? Can the Gigafactory (once fully built out) output enough battery packs for a million M3 per year ? If not, where are they going to build the extra capacity ?

You are right.

So....

Probably makes sense to have Model Y absorb some of the demand.

 

[mutle]

Norway surpassed 50% PHEV market share for the first time (actually at 56% and 37% share for BEVs) thanks to the new Leaf arriving and strong sales of Model X and S:

Norway March 2018

This is the first time this has ever happened anywhere in the history of the world.

 

[Todd Burch]

Looks like the Norwegians know what they’re doing. (Except for settling that beautiful but cold place up there, brrrrrr!)

 

[sub]

This past two weeks are the perfect example of why I don't deal in short term options. I sold a J19 ATM put last week at 295, figured that was free money. Green again.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

In honor of seeing $300 again

 

[ZsoZso]

I have one honest question to our resident Care Bears who have been so nice to us all year to warn us about the possibility of this major dip:

Have you covered your TSLA shorts today ?

You know, it is best to quit while you are ahead!
I wouldn't want to see you nice people cry when the SP goes back to north of 300.
So I'm playing the good samaritan and looking out for the good fortune of the shorts: take your profits while you are ahead!

ps: This IS an advice

Hey Shorts, I hope you followed my advice, if not, its too late to cry now, it took only 2 days:

 

[Waiting4M3]

In the mean time, in Buffalo...

Tesla Gigafactory 2 to ramp hiring efforts as Solar Roof installations begin

 

[sundaymorning]

In the mean time, in Buffalo...

Tesla Gigafactory 2 to ramp hiring efforts as Solar Roof installations begin

A friend of mine who works for Tesla Energy in CA tells me he has been installing regular solar panels and that the new roofs are still being manufactured. But the power-wall and packs installation has been strong. He and his team are working 45 hour weeks. This is much better than the 25 hour weeks back when Tesla first acquiered scty. He says quality is also much better on recent installs.

 

[avoigt]

In honor of seeing $300 again

For those knowing the history.... much better loosing the 300 at the pernopyles ones but finally winning the war than vice versa.

 

[TradingInvest]

Norway surpassed 50% PHEV market share for the first time (actually at 56% and 37% share for BEVs) thanks to the new Leaf arriving and strong sales of Model X and S:

Norway March 2018

This is the first time this has ever happened anywhere in the history of the world.

I'm not surprised. Like digital camera replacing film camera. EVs will keep getting better and cheaper. Then they will take 90% of the market. Then ICEs will become even more expensive to own because of the reduced supporting infrastructure. I don't hear people buying film camera anymore.

When people see their neighbors buying EVs, they will start to ask why. The 56% PHEV and 37% BEV should get to 80% really fast.

 

[Cobos]

I'm not surprised. Like digital camera replacing film camera. EVs will keep getting better and cheaper. Then they will take 90% of the market. Then ICEs will become even more expensive to own because of the reduced supporting infrastructure. I don't hear people buying film camera anymore.

When people see their neighbors buying EVs, they will start to ask why. The 56% PHEV and 37% BEV should get to 80% really fast.

Just to clarify that is 37% Pure EV, also 20% gasoline, 19% Plugin Hybrid, 8% hybrid and 16% diesel. Top 10 models are all either BEVs or variants of Hybrids. Model X and S has position 5 and 8 respectively on the best selling models chart for Q1.

Source

Cobos

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - this afternoon: Tesla Model 3 with dual motor and air suspension spotted on race track – potentially ‘Performance’ version

 

[The Blue Owl]

To get an idea for the intellectual laziness of shorts these days, have a look at this Tesla will collapse video. This guy (one John Thompson of Vilas Capital Management) keeps droning the same nuggets of stupidity shared by his brethren everywhere. It's like they're not even trying anymore.

 

[SPadival]

Hey Shorts, I hope you followed my advice, if not, its too late to cry now, it took only 2 days:
View attachment 292021

I think I can safely remove some of the ignores I put over the last couple of days. They won’t be back soon.

 

[ls7corvete]

You are right.

So....

Probably makes sense to have Model Y absorb some of the demand.

I hope new line will be combined Y/3 line to allow flexibility. Though I expect Y to outsell 3. And personally, I will probably sell M3 for truck.

 

[mongo]

I hope new line will be combined Y/3 line to allow flexibility. Though I expect Y to outsell 3. And personally, I will probably sell M3 for truck.

It would be great if the line was brought up and made 3's while the final tooling/ testing of Y was occurring. Then Y hits the ground running, and the line is never idle. The fly in this ointment is that if the line is not at Fremont, it means duplicating the stamping dies, or shipping stamped parts from Fremont... Although... That could work if the Y line was at GF1, since there will be all the empty trailers from hauling packs and motors to Fremont that need to go there anyway...

Edit: They would need collapsible dunnage to make this work (or else trailers that gross out instead of cube out).