General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[scaesare]

EVgo launches first public 350-kw fast charger

A 350-kw DC fast charger can replenish about 240 miles in a long-range, 300-mile electric car in less than half an hour.

That's something like 75kWh. If it were substantially lower than 30 mins, I'd expect they'd say so.

That's an average rate not much more than ~150kW.

Not terribly impressive for a 350kW station. I'd guess that they should have qualified it as "current cars...

 

[scaesare]

"Once again we present the very best new cars you can buy..."
2018 10Best Cars: The Best of our Advertiser's Cars for Sale in America Today | Feature | Car and Driver

Except... Tesla Model 3.

This is hilarious.

How can they ignore the Model 3?

Look at these dinosaurs!

View attachment 362433

Really? this is a top 10 interior? It looks so dated already.

View attachment 362434

The top 10 for 2018 should be this list:

1. Tesla Model 3

And that's it.

They are all Nokia, making their flip phones, about to die.

TSLA Long. It is so so so obvious.

Fixed that for them....

 

[SW2Fiddler]

I deleted my whole Ignore list a couple of days ago. It was a lot bigger than I thought. I never had Birds or Bums in there either.

Not an advice

 

[sweter]

Why are some folks here expecting EU/China VINS to be different?

Here's how you decode the Tesla Model 3 VIN per decoder here, doesn't seem region specific, or different for LHD/RHD (drive)

Once GF3 begins production in China, who assigns the VINS USA OR some some China Agency? I would think China agency?

~ Cheers.

“The first 19 VINs (108730-108748) contain a new code (‘7’) in the 6th position, which represents the “Restraint System” for the vehicle. Although the code is not incl. in the decoder submitted to NHTSA, it appears to be used in Model S to denote an EU car.“

Tesla seemingly registers batch of Left Hand Drive Model 3 VINs for EU region

 

[uselesslogin]

I deleted my whole Ignore list a couple of days ago. It was a lot bigger than I thought. I never had Birds or Bums in there either.

Not an advice

I did the same and honestly haven't seen more than a few previously ignored posters. It also seems like there are fewer posts since people aren't busy arguing with trolls anymore.

 

[dmckinstry]

I did the same and honestly haven't seen more than a few previously ignored posters. It also seems like there are fewer posts since people aren't busy arguing with trolls anymore.

Yes. Another nice side effect of the SP having dropped so much is the overall traffic has gone down too.
Actually I hope the SP stays down through the end of the year and then goes up after the delivery report. That will minimize the number of shares I'll have to sell to meet minimum distribution requirements.

 

[bhtooefr]

So, a thought, re: the Market Action vs. General Discussion threads, and how the split between them didn't really seem to work so well (so much general discussion and even straight-up offtopic in the Market Action thread).

Might it make sense to divide the threads up by a smaller division than annually - quarterly, monthly, or even weekly? I feel like that might make things more manageable, especially if automated tools can create the new threads and lock the old ones.

 

[RobStark]

Ford is recalling 874,000 pickup trucks in North America for fire risks

 

[brian45011]

Yes. Another nice side effect of the SP having dropped so much is the overall traffic has gone down too.
Actually I hope the SP stays down through the end of the year and then goes up after the delivery report. That will minimize the number of shares I'll have to sell to meet minimum distribution requirements.

Many brokers allow RMDs to be taken "in kind." (Also, saves commissions).

 

[MP3Mike]

Many brokers allow RMDs to be taken "in kind." (Also, saves commissions).

That doesn't change the fact that if TSLA value is way down that he has to take less RMD than if it is way up.

 

[brian45011]

That doesn't change the fact that if TSLA value is way down that he has to take less RMD than if it is way up.

That will minimize the number of shares I'll have to sell to meet minimum distribution requirements.

 

[JRP3]

Might it make sense to divide the threads up by a smaller division than annually - quarterly, monthly, or even weekly? I feel like that might make things more manageable, especially if automated tools can create the new threads and lock the old ones.

How would closing threads after a shorter time period improve daily off topic posting? It's not the length of the threads that causes issues. The problem is most people like to congregate in one thread and so the majority of discussion takes place there. I'm not sure how we can change human nature.

 

[bhtooefr]

It'll break longer discussions up, and it'll keep each thread's length more manageable, while also creating better entry points (if you fell behind, it's more obvious where a week started).

 

[Mader Levap]

I would support quarterly market discussions. Month or week is way, way too often.

I'm not sure how we can change human nature.

Strict enforcement of moderation? Announce once and just delete offtopic messages without being sorry. Always. After few days people will learn to find other threads or make new threads for offtopic content.

 

[JRP3]

It'll break longer discussions up, and it'll keep each thread's length more manageable, while also creating better entry points (if you fell behind, it's more obvious where a week started).

Few off topic discussions go on for more than a few days, let alone a week. If you're behind it's not that hard to jump ahead, week old data isn't really useful at that point anyway.

I would support quarterly market discussions. Month or week is way, way too often.


Strict enforcement of moderation? Announce once and just delete offtopic messages without being sorry. Always. After few days people will learn to find other threads or make new threads for offtopic content.

We go off topic a lot, you're asking for a lot more work for moderators. Also some off topic discussions are quite useful and don't go on for very long.

 

[30seconds]

Another sign of how far behind VW is that the base ID will have <200 mile range and 48kwh battery

Fully Charged Calls Volkswagen ID Prototype "Absolutely Amazing" | CleanTechnica

All for the same price as a base Model 3

 

[Dreadnought]

Game theory says that if you've got cheap-to-produce oil, you dump it now before demand drops; if your oil costs more to produce than the price of oil, you stop drilling. The frackers are nuts so they refuse to stop drilling, which makes the game-theoretic move for everyone else even stronger.

You did a lot of research on this topic, so appreciate your expert opinion:

The big producers (who still can produce profitably) have little incentive to cut down on volume now as they see falling demand ahead. The fracking pyramid scheme will at some point collapse and other unprofitable drillers will give up as well. The resulting shortage is another reason for those who can afford it to not care about the price level now but pull in the reins after supply already took a hit.
Can you give an approximate time frame when we will see the first frackers to go belly up under these conditions? How likely do you consider this scenario in contrast to a moderate reduction in output that will raise prices to a more "sustainable" level?

 

[neroden]

IMO, nobody can figure out when the frackers will go belly-up! They seem to be financed by an endless flood of dumb money. Initially, the business model / scheme was to sell their wells to the oil majors at inflated prices -- so the oil majors provided the dumb money. THAT might still be working, I'm not sure, but I think the oil majors have gotten a bit wiser. The next scheme is essentially optimistic talk to Wall Street to get money, which has definitely been working. Perhaps the increase in interest rates will help discourage this, by convincing Wall Street to invest in T-bills instead? Who knows.

I thought the oil price crash in 2008 would have done it --- nope. The crash in 2014-2015 -- nope. I would have thought the horrible ten years of stock market underperformance and negative cash flow would have done it. It didn't. I would think this price crash would do it, but at this point I'm not betting on it!

Well, if you can figure out when the flood of wasted investment into fracking companies will end, please let me know. It seems to depend on an element of mass psychology which I can't predict. Every one of these very-debt-heavy, cash-flow-negative companies keeps managing to pile on MORE debt. I can't figure out when people will stop buying the debt. I don't even know who's buying the debt.

 

[dmunjal]

IMO, nobody can figure out when the frackers will go belly-up! They seem to be financed by an endless flood of dumb money. Initially, the business model / scheme was to sell their wells to the oil majors at inflated prices -- so the oil majors provided the dumb money. THAT might still be working, I'm not sure, but I think the oil majors have gotten a bit wiser. The next scheme is essentially optimistic talk to Wall Street to get money, which has definitely been working. Perhaps the increase in interest rates will help discourage this, by convincing Wall Street to invest in T-bills instead? Who knows.

I thought the oil price crash in 2008 would have done it --- nope. The crash in 2014-2015 -- nope. I would have thought the horrible ten years of stock market underperformance and negative cash flow would have done it. It didn't. I would think this price crash would do it, but at this point I'm not betting on it!

Well, if you can figure out when the flood of wasted investment into fracking companies will end, please let me know. It seems to depend on an element of mass psychology which I can't predict. Every one of these very-debt-heavy, cash-flow-negative companies keeps managing to pile on MORE debt. I can't figure out when people will stop buying the debt. I don't even know who's buying the debt.

$30 oil?

 

[30seconds]

It would be nice to have a board category on Tesla service. I think they having enough issues to affect brand perception which will affect valuation.