Trump just wants to make sure that Shanghai factory is being built. Maybe Putin told him to
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Trump just wants to make sure that Shanghai factory is being built. Maybe Putin told him to
jelloslug
Active Member
I find it funny that shorts are following the exact progression of FUD that I was talking about weeks ago: making cars is bad and making money is bad.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
FirebirdAlpha
Member
If that’s a distribution center, it’s the worst I’ve ever seen.
They’re keeping cars on dirt and in single lines. Hundreds cars boxed in. There aren’t enough trucks in that photo for capacity. They need to be averaging 18 trucks an hour to be turning 3000 cars per week out of that lot. (3000/7/24).
They’re keeping cars on dirt and in single lines. Hundreds cars boxed in. There aren’t enough trucks in that photo for capacity. They need to be averaging 18 trucks an hour to be turning 3000 cars per week out of that lot. (3000/7/24).
jelloslug
Active Member
You would be very disappointing with the condition of my local BMW factories' X5 overflow lots....
sub
Active Member
Get a photo of that if you can, would be good for a laugh at the shorties.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
As long as we’re looking at vast lots of thousands of cars, don’t forget the huge VW DieselGate graveyard outside Colorado Springs. Just drove by it a week ago.
I see us as very very likely at the start of major shift in perception/appreciation of Tesla from heavy influence of bear false narratives to a considerably more realistic awareness of the company and its products. I think for much of the public, Tesla will go from looking like a team playing defense, and breaking down doing so, to a team looking like its moving down open field rapidly on offense.
I see this unfolding over anywhere from the next 2 months to the next 9.5 months.
In addition to the points in the post I replied to...
- we've just begun a 2 month period where the amount of Model 3s on the road will increase by about 150%, & a 9+ months period, where they will first arrive in Europe, and become about 8X as visible as what they are currently in NA. Put another way, at the end of that 9+ months, there will be ~1.5X as many Model 3s in NA as there are S&X combined today. Visibility shooting up.
- there are likely to be several high profile reviews of the P Model 3 released over the weekend viscerally reminding people of why so many became Tesla enthusiasts in the first place.
- up until this week, I thought the short position and the size of the media campaign associated with it would not break until several years into the 2020s. I now think there is a considerable chance we are at the maximum intensity of the campaign and it will begin to splinter some (though I still think considerable amounts will remain for years). I think there are three major groups in the short position and I think two of them may well drop their intensity significantly near term. fwiw, in the 7 minute clip of Chanos on CNBC a few days ago, I found him less strident than in the past.
-What's more, I suspect that there will be at least some retail shorts who got caught in the misinformation firehose, who will not only close out their positions, but will go from irrational venting at Elon/Tesla (supportive of the misinfo campaign), to some sore feelings re those pumping out the misinformation (perhaps some pointing out the misinfo campaign game).
- All those Model 3s hitting the road will not only lead to more sales, it will lead to a far wider group of people becoming skeptical about what they've heard from the misinformation campaign about Tesla and TSLA for years
I don't see a short squeeze coming.
I don't recommend the use of options.
I do, however, see us on the cusp of a shift in perception of "long vs. short," Tesla, and TSLA, of a size I think it is very difficult to well appreciate today given how long there's been a heavily fabricated tone of skepticism, gloom, and vulnerability about the company and its future. We can see today Tesla is kicking butt in a very very big way, even if it might take 2-9 months for it to feel that way. Perhaps all these events we are in the midst of and perhaps this major perception shift I'm referring to is what Elon meant with his tweets about SBOTC, etc. (though, that was not the most helpful choice of terms).
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Someone should post a couple of these photos on Twitter with a caption "Look at all the stored Teslas!" and see which FUD outlets pick it up. Then expose them for the shams they are.
@SteveG3, can you elaborate on what has caused your change in thinking regarding the timing of the shift in sentiment?
Due to the thick irony I find it even better that German auto makers in their home market are forced to store large numbers of brand new cars, that cannot legally be given license plates due to their fraudulently high emissions. Here is one for Mercedes, VW also has one:
Lars Kr. Lundin on Twitter
PS. Apologies for pimping my own anti-Tesla-FUD tweet...
See that ship in the background? Might they be in the process of loading those BMWs?
VW's profits show they can easily afford to crush those cars and replace with BEV's to compete with Tesla...
jelloslug
Active Member
Nope, that's just storage for the unsold ones.
BozieBeMe2
May I have this dance?
Doesn't it bother you, at the extreme amount of waste here and No One Cares?
I can only imagine the news, if this somehow was a Tesla issue.
Case in point, the already large amount of MS3's waiting for delivery, is seen as a determent.
Certain people are seeing the glass as half full and the stock price today ($314.40 3:27p), reflects that pessimistic view.
Current OEMs have nothing Tesla wants, instead they have:
At most, Tesla needs an empty building in the right spot for their next GF. If they purchased an OEM they would end up laying off ~90% of the engineering staff followed by 50% of manufacturing once they converted the lines. Good luck with that on the PR front.
- Union contracts
- Dealership contracts
- Pension/ retirement obligations
- ICE/ transmission engineering expertise
- Supplier contracts
- Debt
- Release engineers (basically supplier minders)
- ICE vehicle lines
- Management
- Office space
If Elon wants some crazy street cred, buying the abandoned Packard plant, hauling it off or turning it into bricks (after checking for lead and asbestos), and putting up a factory there would do it... Still not as cost effective as building in say... Durand, MI...
(Some dramatic / literary license taken with the factoids)
Never in Michigan if they want quality products.
Biggest factor was Munro’s report. A one-time harsh critic resoundingly undercutting the “can’t make a profit” and “no competitive advantage” false narratives.
The Thai tweeting mess being cleaned up some (Tuesday) cleared my head to see how many positive developments we are in the midst of, including the just lit booster rocket in Mod3 visibility for those with only low info exposure to Tesla (ie the BS headlines). Connecting those dots led me to see a very strong chance that perception will shift. I’m quite pleased that Elon will likely very shortly address FUD in format he can strongly make a case.
Re Munro- revision of analyst estimates for Tesla did not happen with the 5K announcement and might have been muted after earnings report 8/1. Munro’s report makes it more challenging to play as heavily the moving goal post game (ie, even if Q3 profit, just gamed, Q4, let’s see what happens when they have to sell $35K cars...) as it was before for analysts. Not saying some won’t do this, but, there’s more of a challenge to it, and the stick with the herd analysts (ie don’t stick ones neck out) are likely to shift from leaning to the skeptic herd to leaning with the bullish herd.
There’s just so much coming out so quickly undercutting most core bear false narratives, that not only will many retail shorts likely change their views, many may well come to see that they came to those views and lost considerable money due to a misinformation campaign that could feel as if it used them like pawns.
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