But this is neglecting the other part of technological advancement--low power. Old tube TVs were power hogs. Flat screens are much lower power. Incandescent bulbs consumed much more energy than CFL or LED bulbs. Energy efficient furnaces, air conditioners, water heaters, refrigerators, etc. etc. So it has seemingly been an ongoing balance as we get a bit more electronics, with computers, laptops, tablets, phones, etc. that need to use electricity, all of the appliances use a bit less energy each decade as well.
Now this is the part that doesn't make sense. You drive X number of miles per day for work and errands. If cars have 300 miles of range or 500 or 800, you still drive that same X number of miles each day. If the cars can refill at 29 miles per hour, or 200 miles per hour or 500 miles per hour, that still doesn't affect that you drive X number of miles each day that you need to refill at night, which means that is still the same number of kwh you need to put into the car overnight, which means that you don't need to keep increasing your home electrical supply higher and higher for faster and faster charging.
Rocky_H,
Quite true, the amount of power required for a car will (probably) remain in the 3-4 kWh/mile range for now. But the battery capacity will increase from today's puny 20-50 kWh to something more like 500-1,000 kWh. And its going to be a challenge to refill it overnight using a J1772 240V/50A line. Even more challenging if you have two cars.
And whenever did we like waiting for more than 5 minutes at a drive-thru window for fast food? the future "we" will want them to recharge in minutes, not hours.
Also, there are a jillion homes out there with natural gas appliances, and if natural gas becomes scarce, then people will switch to electric appliances. (Nah! Gas will be cheap forever!)
I'm not all that sure that the march of efficiency will keep pace with the march of ... More stuff. True, the march of efficiency has supplied us with electronic goodies use less power than the old ones, but let's face it: we have more electrical goodies now. Four TVs instead of one. Electric garage door openers, can openers, heated towel bars, coffeemakers, toaster ovens, hair dryers, heated towel bars, security cameras, robot vacuum cleaners, wireless stuff galore. Its not the efficiency has not made my electric bill go down. It is all the additional goodies (and goodies yet to be made) will cause consumption to go up.
So, I will still plan on a big circuit breaker box to handle whatever comes.
And if I'm wrong, then I will have squandered a couple of hundred bucks for a larger, but partially empty, box.
And if I'm right, then I will be thought a visionary to have planned so far ahead -- when I sell the house because I'm moving to Mars.
-- Ardie
Muskville? Elonopolis? Teslaburg? Spacex City?