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How long until we get a 400+ mile model Y?
- Thread starter Westcoast42
- Start date
Icehedgehog88
Member
Who else is targeting that high other than Lucid?
I think the majority of people do not need more than 300 miles per charge. Companies will try to lower costs/decrease weight vs increase range after a certain point.
I think the majority of people do not need more than 300 miles per charge. Companies will try to lower costs/decrease weight vs increase range after a certain point.
alexcue
Member
Honest questions, who are the competitors and what is the price range??? In comparison to the MY
I'd settle for just reaching the EPA figures, if you could realistically get the 300+ miles they rate I think that would help a lot.
When comparing range estimates be sure that you don't directly compare WLTP range estimates to EPA range estimates in the US. The WLTP range estimate is usually 30% higher than EPA.
Lucid, Nio ET7, Polestar 3 suv, bmw says 500 mi couple years away, GAC Aion…
They’re coming…. whats the plan for the model y? You can say “300 is enough” as long as you want, but 400+ isn’t far off for some other brands, and it would be folly to stay at current range indefinitely…. Was just curious if Tesla has any plans…
They’re coming…. whats the plan for the model y? You can say “300 is enough” as long as you want, but 400+ isn’t far off for some other brands, and it would be folly to stay at current range indefinitely…. Was just curious if Tesla has any plans…
I doubt Chinese cars will come to the US anytime soon. But I think you're right - range increases will be coming. I'll bet it'll be the 3 before the Y though. They roughly share the same wheelbase so you can't cram more batteries into one versus the other. Since the 3 is more efficient, it's an easier task.
You left off the price. The Lucid Air GT that is rated for 516, only gets ~436 on the highway, and starts at $154k. The Lucid Air Pure that is rated for 406 miles starts at $87.5k, and will likely only get ~340. Of course, they won't even tell you when you might be able to get a Lucid Air Pure. But really Lucid competes with the Model S, not the Model Y.
So again, what can you buy right now, in the same size class, that gets 400+ EPA miles?
But besides for towing, with the expansion of all of the charging networks I personally don't see the need for a Model Y to be able to go 400-500 miles.
“But besides for towing, with the expansion of all of the charging networks I personally don't see the need for a Model Y to be able to go 400-500 miles.”
Not a need, but convenience, definitely. Are you honestly saying that if I were to offer you a 600 mi range vehicle and a 300 mi one that performed and cost the same (say, 6 years from now) you’d happily take the 300?
Not a need, but convenience, definitely. Are you honestly saying that if I were to offer you a 600 mi range vehicle and a 300 mi one that performed and cost the same (say, 6 years from now) you’d happily take the 300?
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When the 1000 mile versions costs twice what the 300 mile version does. Yes, Yes I would.
I'm not sure the convenience argument flies. I'm not ever going to drive 1000 miles without stopping for multiple bio breaks, to eat, stretch my legs, etc. (Also, I'm really not interested in getting a DVT.)
Driving Supercharger profit is not why they are doing it. There are a number of reasons, for example:
- Cost: It would cost a lot more to double battery capacity
- Efficiency: Doubling batter capacity would increase the weight reducing efficiency. So it would cost you more money per mile travelled.
- Weight: Weight would be increased, requiring upgrading lots of components. Tires, suspension, structure, etc.
- Battery supply: Using twice as many cells per car with limited cell supply would cut the number of cars you could deliver in half. (Thereby increasing costs since you get less volume to spread costs across.)
- Size: You have to make the vehicle bigger to have somewhere to put all of those batteries.
So magical thinking. Got it.
But if a 1000 mile version in 3 years costs the same as the 300 mile one now. That would mean that the 300 mile one would cost significantly less in three years. So I would still buy the 300 mile variant. (And would have cheaper operating costs as a result.)
Destiny1701
22’ M3LR ‘DrkNite’/ 22’ MYP BliueRocket
Agree with SC profit comment. It’s Teslas future bread and butter. Why make less on energy?
Obviously there are already cars with more than 330. But they are bigger than the Model Y.
I can't tell you when it would happen, but I could imagine that Tesla might make a max range Model Y sometime in the future, once they have demand for the existing Model Y met globally. If I were to guess I think it might be possible to have a ~400 mile range Model Y in 4-5 years. You are talking about a ~25% increase in energy storage capacity, and battery capacity technology isn't increasing at a fast pace, I estimate ~5%/year. (But just because they increase cell capacity by 5% doesn't mean that they will still put the same number of cells in the vehicle, they may reduce the number of cells keeping the range mostly the same to reduce costs and allow higher production.)
Their bread and butter is selling vehicles. (And soon energy storage equipment.) I suspect that they currently make very little money on Supercharging, and I don't see that changing significantly.
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For the reasons you stated above, I don't think we will have a Model Y with a 400+ range ever. My money would be on they spend more R&D to get charging faster, more convenient. I'd rather stop every 150 miles, than every 200 miles, and not have a heavier car that burns through tires faster etc. Demand will drive it and I bet demand sweet spot is mid 300s.
Tesla made far more on my $6,000 (paid now) software upgrade for my MYP than they ever will in the lifetime of this car supercharging (paid in dollars over years). Their big profits are in the cars/software, not selling energy.
whisperingshad
Active Member
I'd settle for 300+ @75mph...and able to charge to 100 like LFP
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