How long until we get a 400+ mile model Y?

[B3stswat]

Probably in the next 2 years. The 3/Y are their best selling models so cost at scale is definitely a factor. The current range is a non-factor for most people but I do think they will do one final push to go into that 375-450 mile range just to further set themselves apart from their competitors, a lot of which are making these claims of higher ranges in x years but they should start first by selling vehicles. Any additional range beyond that I think will come second hand as the technology improves. Personally a real 300 mile range would be ideal for me and would render me from using a supercharger 99% of the time. At the moment supercharging accounts for 9% of my charging. I can't imagine their supercharging network being that cost effective, Musk himself said they aim for a 10% profit margin on them so a more efficient longer range battery is definitely in the cards.

 

[Tonedog77]

not sure why anyone would want that much ranges to maybe use it once or twice a year, until battery prices plummit its not worth tesla putting out a 100k model y because it has a bigger battery. more chargers are a better more practically solution and better charging curve

 

[sleepydoc]

As others have said, increasing range means either increasing efficiency or increasing battery capacity.
Possible efficiency improvements include:

• Motor efficiency: As I understand it, Tesla's motors are already quite good in terms of efficiency.
• Electrical efficiency: I don't know how much efficiency can be gained by improving the internal electronics, AC/DC converters, etc. That's a possible area for improvement. but I'm not sure if you can get 30% out of it.
• Driving efficiency: As far as wind and rolling resistance goes, I don't see Tesla gaining 30% there, either.

Now for the batteries. The model Y is already really heavy - about 4500 lbs. They could add 50% more battery but that would cut into storage space and significantly add to the weight of the vehicle. As was mentioned above, not only does that compromise performance but it necessitates a redesign of many other components (that will likely add even more weight to the vehicle.)

That leaves us with everyone's goal - a new battery breakthrough that significantly increases energy density. Tesla has come out with the 4680 batteries that they're still developing. The current 4680 batteries appear to have a similar energy density to the 2170s. How much more can be achieved from further refining the design remains to be seen.

The other problem with using a larger battery is charging times. If they simply increase the battery size from 80 to 120 kWh you have to increase the charging by 50%, too. And do so in a way that doesn't degrade the battery and is compatible with current charging infrastructure.

Finally, as many others have also posted, Tesla needs to have a motivation to do so. They are still selling pretty much every car they can make (although delivery times have come down significantly.) If battery producing is a limiting factor, they are better off producing 50% more cars than fewer cars with larger batteries.

 

[SageBrush]

Lucid, Nio ET7, Polestar 3 suv, bmw says 500 mi couple years away

Not even close, except for Lucid.
The Nia ETL range is CLTC test cycle, the Polestar 3 SUV is 300 miles EPA (at $84k !!), and the BMW is a gleam in someone's eye.

Here is a primer on EPA Vs other test cycles. You should get to know the differences.

The bottom line is that 400 EPA mile range is a matter of consumer price, not a technical barrier. You can order a Tesla Model S today with 394 EPA mile range. I think your real question is when can consumers expect an "inexpensive" 400 EPA mile range EV. No time soon, but Tesla will lead the pack if their 4680 cell scaling is successful and they are able to increase cell energy density via increased silicone.

 

[SageBrush]

If they simply increase the battery size from 80 to 120 kWh you have to increase the charging by 50%, too.

A larger pack ends up charging at a higher average C rate

 

[MP3Mike]

You can order a Tesla Model S today with 394 EPA mile range.

It is actually 405 miles EPA range, with the 19" wheels.

 

[ucmndd]

But if you plan to drive to a nice lookout campground or cabin where you want to spend the weekend,
you cannot be far away from a supercharger, or public L2 charger, for more than 111 miles,

Of course you can, as this is precisely the scenario where one would obviously charge to 100% and/or discharge below 20%.

Or charge using the mobile connector for the weekend at your nice lookout cabin.

 

[Destiny1701]

Gas stations don’t make money selling gas. They make it selling beer and Cheetos. Even the largest chains.

Dude. Your speaking of franchise model. Ie. Franchisees own independent Tesla Schargers lol.

Not of the parent corp making billions.
wrong analogy bud.

Anyway we digress main point is I’d like it if teslas real world range was actually closer to epa.good enough range then.

 

[tashtibet]

I don't ask pie in the sky question but live in the moment. Life's uncertain and impermanence is always knocking on the door-enjoy what is available and listen to the Rolling Stone's 'You can't Always Get what You want'.

 

[Zalick]

Dude. Your speaking of franchise model. Ie. Franchisees own independent Tesla Schargers lol.

Not of the parent corp making billions.
wrong analogy bud.

Anyway we digress main point is I’d like it if teslas real world range was actually closer to epa.good enough range then.

Tesla doesn’t generate the electricicity. They are retail. They aren’t and won’t ever be the Chevrons of electricity. Too heavily regulated and tiny profit margins.

But we do digress and I agree: if true range were were 300-350 that would be perfect.

 

[Zalick]

I don't ask pie in the sky question but live in the moment. Life's uncertain and impermanence is always knocking on the door-enjoy what is available and listen to the Rolling Stone's 'You can't Always Get what You want'.

Every time my kid gets upset about not getting his way, I just put on that video.

 

[IamGaryGnu]

It is actually 405 miles EPA range, with the 19" wheels.

View attachment 863376

I was going to post, I wish my S refresh could get over 350 miles. It is rated 405 with my tires, but reality is no where near that - at least not for me. I figure AT BEST I can get about 350, and that would be sticking to the speed limit (shudder). Charging to 80% or even 90%, well, I get less than 4.05 miles per each percent, closer to 3.5 I would say, and I've only charged to 100% a couple of times, and my range was far worse than the equivalent of 405. Just saying.

 

[SageBrush]

if true range were were 300-350

"True" in this context does not have any meaning.

65 mph ?
75 mph ?
85 mph ?
95 mph ?

Dry roads ?
Wet roads ?
1" of snow ?
3" of snow ?

Ambient 70F ?
50F ?
30F ?
10F ?
-10F ?

No headwind ?
5 mph headwind ?
10 mph headwind ?
15 mph headwind ?
25 mph headwind ?

 

[SageBrush]

I bet demand sweet spot is mid 300

I'm thinking more 225 mile range at 75 mph, in all but extreme weather. That probably means close to 400 EPA miles

 

[SageBrush]

China Zeekr is getting ready to sell its 621-mile range Zeeker

CLTC is even more permissive than NEDC. I think EPA is ~ 60% of CLTC

 

[MP3Mike]

I figure AT BEST I can get about 350, and that would be sticking to the speed limit (shudder).

A recent test shows that a Model S Plaid with the 19" wheels does 365 miles, at 70MPH, out of the rated 396 miles of EPA range. (So 92% of EPA range.) I would think that the non-Plaid Model S might do better. (Or maybe it wouldn't if the Plaid motors with the carbon wrapped rotors are more efficient?)

 

[whisperingshad]

Were you asleep this year when they doubled electricity fees at superchargers?

The end-goal is to install solar (which they own) to run the superchargers (which they own). Who do you suppose will be paying for all the usage and infrastructure?

When 10% of the fleet is using FSD and 90% is using supercharging to some degree, there is more profit to be had at those stations than in software sales.

Doubt even close to 90% is normally supercharging.

 

[Destiny1701]

Tesla doesn’t generate the electricicity. They are retail. They aren’t and won’t ever be the Chevrons of electricity. Too heavily regulated and tiny profit margins.

But we do digress and I agree: if true range were were 300-350 that would be perfect.

Ok so what if they buy at X rate/kw and sell at 2 or 3x? Then? Factor in 15 yrs from now with half the entire market EV’s and opened up to all manuf cars. I’m not saying today.

Ya if I actually got 300 miles/485km on my MYP I’d be one happy camper. As it is my 100% is already at 458km in just 3 months of ownership. Down from the 488 at delivery. I charge to 80 or 90 and extrapolate.

 

[Zalick]

Were you asleep this year when they doubled electricity fees at superchargers?

The end-goal is to install solar (which they own) to run the superchargers (which they own). Who do you suppose will be paying for all the usage and infrastructure?

When 10% of the fleet is using FSD and 90% is using supercharging to some degree, there is more profit to be had at those stations than in software sales.

If you think solar panels, in the next 50 years, will be efficient and powerful enough to run a super charger and charge to 90% in under 10 minutes, I’ve got a bridge in Alaska you might want to buy.

 

[SageBrush]

If you think solar panels, in the next 50 years, will be efficient and powerful enough to run a super charger and charge to 90% in under 10 minutes, I’ve got a bridge in Alaska you might want to buy.

I think it will happen within 5 years, outside of unusual weather events.
Power is a matter of panel number along with battery storage.