HW4 sensor suite and hi-res camera updates?

[Daniel in SD]

I wonder how they’re going to develop for HW3 and HW4 at the same time. That seems like a big increase in work load.

 

[pilotSteve]

Who knows how many iterations this will need to go through before anything resembling full
autonomy and DDT transference occurs. The verbiage around the next iteration should be a tell: do they promise Robotaxi functionality AGAIN?

I highly doubt it, we’ll probably get to HW20 and still require eyeballs forward.

There fixed it for you

 

[spacecoin]

I wonder how they’re going to develop for HW3 and HW4 at the same time. That seems like a big increase in work load.

Waymo reuses a lot between the robotaxi and the long haul trucking. But I doubt Tesla has build that kind of modular system. AK pushed for more end to end.

 

[lowtek]

Even if Tesla perfects FSD I'm not sure how the lawyers are going to let them let us take our eyes off the road or hands off the wheel ... I guess at that point there will be laws protecting them, dunno, but going to be interesting for sure!

 

[spacecoin]

Even if Tesla perfects FSD I'm not sure how the lawyers are going to let them let us take our eyes off the road or hands off the wheel ... I guess at that point there will be laws protecting them, dunno, but going to be interesting for sure!

Mercedes takes on liability for L3 in Germany and in Nevada (soon CA hopefully). Small ODD, but they are voluntarily liable, as they believe in their product. I wouldn't use or buy an L3 if they didn't guarantee its functionality. That would be like getting on a plane that only makes it 99% of the flights.

International standards (not US) are already in place for highway eyes off, regulations in the coming years in the EU. UN Regulation extends ‎automated driving up to 130 km/h in certain conditions ‎ | UNECE

 

[Daniel in SD]

Even if Tesla perfects FSD I'm not sure how the lawyers are going to let them let us take our eyes off the road or hands off the wheel ... I guess at that point there will be laws protecting them, dunno, but going to be interesting for sure!

Laws protecting them from what?
If the car is driving without human supervision then the manufacturer will be responsible. That’s certainly the way it works for Waymo and Cruise right now. There’s no way laws will be changed to make passengers responsible. Also Musk has already said that Tesla will be responsible for defects in system.

 

[lowtek]

Laws protecting them from what?
If the car is driving without human supervision then the manufacturer will be responsible. That’s certainly the way it works for Waymo and Cruise right now. There’s no way laws will be changed to make passengers responsible. Also Musk has already said that Tesla will be responsible for defects in system.

That's my point ... no lawyers at Tesla are going to approve "hands off, eyes off" as long as they can be held liable ... curious as to how that's going to pan out once they claim to have "perfected" FSD.

It's one thing in small numbers, but once it's half the cars on the road those edge cases are really going to rear their ugly heads.

 

[spacecoin]

It's one thing in small numbers, but once it's half the cars on the road those edge cases are really going to rear their ugly heads.

This is why L5 is unfeasible. It can't be validated. L3 on dry highway during daytime using a mix of vision and sensors that doesn't rely on machine learning to get the distance and speed to objects ahead is completely doable in 3-4 years at highway speeds.

If people can get liability insurance, so can autonomous cars if they are as good or better.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

curious as to how that's going to pan out once they claim to have "perfected" FSD.

When they have perfected FSD it will be hands on and the human will be driving. So seems like a non issue.

3x safer than human alone. Then they are done. Perfected. Human driving.

 

[JulienW]

Just a quick refresher:
L2 The driver is responsible/liable under ALL conditions.
L3 or higher the car IS THE driver so the CAR/manufacture is responsible/liable.

No way to be driving on L3 or higher and your insurance company be liable since you are NOT the driver but are a passenger.

 

[pdx_m3s]

Just a quick refresher:
L2 The driver is responsible/liable under ALL conditions.
L3 or higher the car IS THE driver so the CAR/manufacture is responsible/liable.

No way to be driving on L3 or higher and your insurance company be liable since you are NOT the driver but are a passenger.

Has Tesla ever explicitly, in writing, tied FSD to an SAE autonomy tier?

 

[Dewg]

Has Tesla ever explicitly, in writing, tied FSD to an SAE autonomy tier?

I believe so, yes. In California DMV filings it was identified as L2.

 

[pdx_m3s]

I believe so, yes. In California DMV filings it was identified as L2.

So what’s everyone getting bent out of shape for regarding FSD and L3/4/5 capability? “FSD” is whatever Tesla wants it to be.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Has Tesla ever explicitly, in writing, tied FSD to an SAE autonomy tier?

HW2 had Level 5 capability but I don’t think they’ve ever said HW3 does. It would be hard to make a robotaxi that isn’t SAE L4 though.

 

[JulienW]

So what’s everyone getting bent out of shape for regarding FSD and L3/4/5 capability? “FSD” is whatever Tesla wants it to be.

Actually not. Tesla and everyone wants an L4 system. The current system is so far from and is nowhere near L3 so that is all Tesla CAN claim. We are still quite a ways from chasing the .999s to L3.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Actually not. Tesla and everyone wants an L4 system. The current system is so far from and is nowhere near L3 so that is all Tesla CAN claim. We are still quite a ways from chasing the .999s to L3.

Arguably an L3 system would require more 9’s of reliability because you can’t charge nearly as much for it to pay for the liability.

 

[DanCar]

I wonder how they’re going to develop for HW3 and HW4 at the same time. That seems like a big increase in work load.

Theory: They will spend at least a year collecting higher res videos for HW4 before starting to develop for it. Once they decide they have enough data they will switch to HW4 and HW3 will only get small token updates.

 

[JulienW]

Arguably an L3 system would require more 9’s of reliability because you can’t charge nearly as much for it to pay for the liability.

More 9s than what? I put .999s as in plural or up to .999∞. Can't get more 9s than that.

9s is plural and 9's is possessive.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Theory: They will spend at least a year collecting higher res videos for HW4 before starting to develop for it. Once they decide they have enough data they will switch to HW4 and HW3 will only get small token updates.

How do they deal with the slightly different camera positions on different models now? Train the perception neural nets with data from all four or are there actually four different versions?

 

[Daniel in SD]

More 9s than what? I put .999s as in plural or up to .999∞. Can't get more 9s than that.

9s is plural and 9's is possessive.

I thought you were saying that more reliability is required for L4 than L3.