Is buying a Model S still worth it?

[MountainHigh]

To the OP, I also waited early in line on the 31st to put down a deposit on a model 3. I have been looking for a cpo model s until the 3 is available as a new model s is a financial stretch for me. Here's my opinion for what it's worth.

If you can easily afford the new model s, go for it now. There is no question it will depreciate a fair amount. Buying a new car is probably the worst place to put your money. There will always be something better tomorrow, but, you can enjoy it today.

If you want to go the green route and your distance requirements are small, you could look at several other EV vehicles. And if you need a car, buy a used one for the next 2+ years until your model 3 is ready. Financially, it's a lot less of a loss.

I unfortunately started looking at CPOs right at the big purge earlier this year. I haven't found the recently added CPOs to be that great a deal and have been looking for a good used deal instead. Though, with each passing day, it seems more and more likely I'll just wind up waiting for the model 3.

I wouldn't factor in the model 3 into any equation. There simply is not enough information on what the final production model is to determine what it's effect will be. Maybe Musk will offer some facts at the shareholders meeting on Tuesday.

 

[SMPL]

And yes - buying an $80,000 car is ALWAYS a costly financial decision. The only way it makes sense is if you are moving away from another $80,000 car which burns tons of 91 octane gas and you drive a lot of miles - and plan to keep the car for enough years to where the savings equal out.

That's my situation - 30,000 miles per year of driving, and previous car burned 91 octane, 14 mpg @ $3 / gallon. The S will save $50,000 in fuel and oil over 8 years.

My current vehicle is a ram 1500 crew cab, two years old and 80,000kms on it ... I came up with the same type of analysis. 480$ per month in gas, directly applied to my tesla loan payment makes up 50% of the cost spread over 8 years --- couldn't agree more.

Mines currently in transit for delivery to Toronto Canada in the next couple weeks - can't wait !!

 

[xav-]

Thanks for the answers

We stopped at the Tesla dealership today and scheduled a test drive. The car looks so great.. I wish it were $10k less I w

My current vehicle is a ram 1500 crew cab, two years old and 80,000kms on it ... I came up with the same type of analysis. 480$ per month in gas, directly applied to my tesla loan payment makes up 50% of the cost spread over 8 years --- couldn't agree more.

Mines currently in transit for delivery to Toronto Canada in the next couple weeks - can't wait !!

Fortunately or unfortunately I am not in the same boat. I would save about $50 a month on gas switching to electric. (Altima hybrid with 15k miles a year).

 

[xav-]

All,

Thanks for all your messages. We test drove the car today and we loved it. We are considering a brand new s70 with leather, panoramic roof, autopilot for $80,200.

It is true that it is different car from the 3. It is hard to judge since I saw the 3 in pictures only but the S seems a prettier car to me. i really like that sedan look and hatchback functionality. I am hoping we could pack a set of surfboards without even reclining the passenger front seat or using a roof rack (seems possible with at least one of our surfboard). I am also hoping to keep my dog away from the back seats and leave her in cargo space. These are the kind of things which would definitely not be feasible on the 3.

 

[SMPL]

It is true that it is different car from the 3. It is hard to judge since I saw the 3 in pictures only but the S seems a prettier car to me. i really like that sedan look and hatchback functionality.

Definitely a different car !! S is much larger and seems it will be more versatile than the 3 which is why i decided not to wait to two years to start driving a tesla !!!!

 

[jerry33]

Definitely a different car !! S is much larger and seems it will be more versatile than the 3 which is why i decided not to wait to two years to start driving a tesla !!!!

You won't regret your decision.

 

[ElectricTundra]

@xav- , A slightly different view for you to consider. If you don't absolutely need a car then not buying one might be a very good decision. The Model S is a great car, that's why I have one. My wife will be getting an X in a few months to replace her ML350. If my son was buying a car I'd very strongly recommend a CPO S or 3. And, I think an S will hold its value far better than any ICE. I think that ICE cars will begin to look like dinosaurs to an increasing number of buyers within the next few years.

However, cars are expensive. Their value drops, they require a lot of energy and for ICE a lot of maintenance, and insurance and annual registration are expensive. Then there's our health. The U.S. is the least healthy of all developed countries and has about the lowest life expectancy yet we spend over twice as much as others on healthcare. The number one cause of our health problems is lack of activity — active transportation — we don't walk or bicycle enough.

So, if you don't absolutely need a car then consider how much money and health you might save until your Model 3 is available and how much nicer to buy it with a chunk of money in the bank rather than being in debt from 2 years of enjoying an S (assuming you're not paying cash for it now).

 

[wdolson]

The wildcard affecting used prices is AP 2.0. Next year will probably be the very uncertain as far as used Tesla prices.

I'm beginning to think Tesla will offer an upgrade package for older cars when AP 2 comes out. wk057 has found that a Tesla classic (no AP) could be upgraded to AP 1 for about $10K and he did it (I think it was his wife's car). It should be easier to upgrade AP 1 cars to AP 2, they already have some of the sensors and other sensors just need to be upgraded by replacing existing hardware. The rest of the job would be replacing a circuit board in the dash. I doubt they are going to be adding many sensors in new locations for AP 2. The new triple camera mount will probably just require the mirror assembly be replaced.

 

[wdolson]

Fortunately or unfortunately I am not in the same boat. I would save about $50 a month on gas switching to electric. (Altima hybrid with 15k miles a year).

That much? I'm currently spending about $20 a month on gas.

 

[ElectricTundra]

I'm beginning to think Tesla will offer an upgrade package for older cars when AP 2 comes out. wk057 has found that a Tesla classic (no AP) could be upgraded to AP 1 for about $10K and he did it (I think it was his wife's car). It should be easier to upgrade AP 1 cars to AP 2, they already have some of the sensors and other sensors just need to be upgraded by replacing existing hardware. The rest of the job would be replacing a circuit board in the dash. I doubt they are going to be adding many sensors in new locations for AP 2. The new triple camera mount will probably just require the mirror assembly be replaced.

Will they need to move the radar up higher though? New nose needed for AP 2?

 

[brkaus]

I'm beginning to think Tesla will offer an upgrade package for older cars when AP 2 comes out. wk057 has found that a Tesla classic (no AP) could be upgraded to AP 1 for about $10K and he did it (I think it was his wife's car). It should be easier to upgrade AP 1 cars to AP 2, they already have some of the sensors and other sensors just need to be upgraded by replacing existing hardware. The rest of the job would be replacing a circuit board in the dash. I doubt they are going to be adding many sensors in new locations for AP 2. The new triple camera mount will probably just require the mirror assembly be replaced.

I just don't see upgrade likely -

Elon to design team - make the best in class AP 2.0 system you can design for a reasonable price.

Or

Elon to design team - make the best in class AP 2.0 you can design. Make it cost effective for all new cars and you must make all the older cars upgradable too!

I just don't see the trade off worth it, unless they manage with only a single board replacement.

Did wk's $10k upgrade include his time in the estimate?

 

[RogerHScott]

Unfortunately, I, too, am skeptical about the likelihood of major hardware upgrades being retrofitted. That kind of casts
doubt on the whole "Tesla will keep upgrading your car over the air" story, since once non-backward-compatible hardware
enters the equation future software upgrades are increasingly likely to depend on it. The odds of Tesla investing in two (or more)
solutions -- the current-hardware solution and the (or an) old-hardware solution -- to a problem seem slim at best.

 

[proven]

Yeah don't count on a hardware upgrade for AP2. They didn't offer one for AP1 so I see no reason why they would do it for version 2. After using AP for about a month, I think it's great, but it is far from being autonomous capable and AP2 will require multiple hardware upgrades. The triple camera is a must in the front, a radar in the back and maybe more cameras behind or on the sides as well. I just don't see Tesla offering that much of a retrofit.

 

[Beryl]

Then there's our health. The U.S. is the least healthy of all developed countries and has about the lowest life expectancy yet we spend over twice as much as others on healthcare. The number one cause of our health problems is lack of activity — active transportation — we don't walk or bicycle enough.

You've made valid points.

Interestingly, research show that stress is s major contributor to poor health. It is debatable which -- lack of activity or stress -- is number across all groups but stress ranks number one among in several studies.

Albeit anecdotal at this point, many Tesla owners here are convinced that their stress levels have declined after months of daily rush hour driving using AP (TACC in particular). That said, I can't in good conscience recommend that someone who is suffering from a stress related illness spend money they don't have to buy a Tesla. The result may be swapping one stressor for another.[/user]

 

[xav-]

@xav- , A slightly different view for you to consider. If you don't absolutely need a car then not buying one might be a very good decision. The Model S is a great car, that's why I have one. My wife will be getting an X in a few months to replace her ML350. If my son was buying a car I'd very strongly recommend a CPO S or 3. And, I think an S will hold its value far better than any ICE. I think that ICE cars will begin to look like dinosaurs to an increasing number of buyers within the next few years.

However, cars are expensive. Their value drops, they require a lot of energy and for ICE a lot of maintenance, and insurance and annual registration are expensive. Then there's our health. The U.S. is the least healthy of all developed countries and has about the lowest life expectancy yet we spend over twice as much as others on healthcare. The number one cause of our health problems is lack of activity — active transportation — we don't walk or bicycle enough.

So, if you don't absolutely need a car then consider how much money and health you might save until your Model 3 is available and how much nicer to buy it with a chunk of money in the bank rather than being in debt from 2 years of enjoying an S (assuming you're not paying cash for it now).

Thanks for your input. We are still unsure. One of the thing that worries me with the 3 is waiting 2 years to find out that there is one more year or more to wait. I mean, they took 400k orders or more already. Gigafactory estimate is 500k batteries a year by 2020. Some numbers just do not seem to add up. Another thing that comes to mind is if I buy the S, I will get early delivery for the 3.. then I can either flip the 3 or sell the S. I would assume I could easily make $10k or $15k flipping the 3.

I would put around $20k down (getting 14.5 k from the insurance for my car which was totaled), pay $880 a month for 6.5 years, minus $10k tax cut, minus $50 in gas saving. I guess that would be around $700 a month. As far the maintenance savings, I take that with a grain of salt. We have been driving Toyotas and Nissans. On my Scion FRS, I paid only $299 in maintenance costs in 4 years. Admittedly it was under warranty.

 

[xav-]

Side question.. but how nice is the auto pilot? I see a lot of comments about the next hardware upgrade.

I tested it for a couple minutes yesterday and it seemed nice... obviously that was a very limited test.. this is why I am asking this..

 

[xav-]

That much? I'm currently spending about $20 a month on gas.

We are spending around $130 a month in gas right now. We would get a $80 electricity bill if we buy an electric car. I live in CA where gas is $3 a gallon.

 

[wdolson]

I just don't see upgrade likely -

Elon to design team - make the best in class AP 2.0 system you can design for a reasonable price.

Or

Elon to design team - make the best in class AP 2.0 you can design. Make it cost effective for all new cars and you must make all the older cars upgradable too!

I just don't see the trade off worth it, unless they manage with only a single board replacement.

Did wk's $10k upgrade include his time in the estimate?

I heard about it on a podcast and just went to look it up:
Autopilot Retrofit on Classic P85 | wk057's SkieNET

It was $9K without labor. He salvaged parts from a wreck he's been taking apart. And he does conclude it would be too tough for Tesla to offer it on the classic cars. So I was wrong about that.

However, depending on what the sensor suite is on the AP 2 cars, it may be possible to upgrade an AP 1 car either partially or completely to AP 2. It may be economically viable to be able to upgrade AP 1 cars to AP 1.5 with a limited set of sensors for AP 2.

With the leaked schematic it does appear that at least some of the AP 2 hardware is being installed in cars today. It may just be the wiring harnesses, but that would make it easier to upgrade 2016 Teslas to AP 2 when it becomes available and they may be thinking about offering that for the 2016s delivered with AP 1 sensors at some point.

 

[wdolson]

We are spending around $130 a month in gas right now. We would get a $80 electricity bill if we buy an electric car. I live in CA where gas is $3 a gallon.

I know electricity is expensive in California, especially at peak rates. You still might find it costs you a bit less than $80 a month for an electric. I'm fortunate to live where electricity is only $0.08/KWh.

At $3.00 per gallon for gas, you are paying $0.09/KWh, but ICE cars are much less efficient than BEVs. A Model S 90D or 75D gets 0.33 KWh/Mi, which works out to an equivalent gas mileage of about 100 MPG. A 25 MPG car gets 1.32 KWh/Mi. The break even point between a BEV and a 25 MPG car at $3.00 a gallon is $0.36/KWh. Gas prices fluctuate more than electricity prices too. Your electricity rates probably won't change too much in the next 5 years, but gasoline almost certainly will.

 

[dhanson865]

And then the stuff I really hate about the 3: 400k orders.. How long will we even end up waiting..? Sounds to me end of 2017 is very optimistic... I would expect 2 years from now at the very best case scenario and more likely end of 2018.. I live in California.

Thoughts?
Thanks

Xavier

If you live in California you are put ahead of everyone but other Californians, SpaceX employees, and Tesla employees. Say 25,000 to 50,000 cars for employees. Maybe 50,000 Californian non employees. You'll get the car in 2018 most likely in the first quarter, worst case third quarter.

You should lease a car for two years and be ready to dump it when you get a Model 3.

See if Tesla will lease you a CPO for 2 years. If they won't see about buying a CPO Model S on a 2 year loan with the plan to trade it in to Tesla or Sell it the day you get your Model 3.

If that sounds too expensive lease a 30 kWh Leaf for 2 years and dump it on Nissan when it's next to worthless the day your Model 3 arrives.