We were going to wait the 2 years and get the model 3. Then something happened about a month ago and my car (a Scion FR-S) got totaled by a drunk driver while being parked (no one hurt).
Ugh. Sorry to hear about your FR-S. I think going to a MS from a FR-S will take a bit of adjustment; the FR-S is a great car, but much smaller and lighter than a MS. The MS 70 will handle differently than what you've been used to -- it feels more like a BMW M6 than a Z4.
And then the stuff I really hate about the 3: 400k orders.. How long will we even end up waiting..? Sounds to me end of 2017 is very optimistic... I would expect 2 years from now at the very best case scenario and more likely end of 2018.. I live in California.
Personally, I think it is unlikely that the Model 3 will be out in 2 years.
It takes Tesla 3 days to completely finish a Model S. They deliver close to 15,000 a quarter. 5,000 cars a month, building roughly 228 cars a day (as far as I know the factory doesn't run on weekends). To meet the production goal of 500,000 cars a year, they need to be cranking out 41,667 cars a month, or 1,894 cars a day. This is roughly 8x what they're doing now production-wise. They can adjust their production multiple ways, but to basically build and deliver all the Model 3 preorders by the end of 2018 is what Tesla is shooting for. It is possible, because that's what NUMMI was producing at the height of operation, but Tesla extensively retooled and remodeled the factory.
How do you think the resale value will hold up? I know it has hold up extremely well so far but how can this keep up?
Model s has had great resale value (my fear is resale value moving forward won't be as good), yet tesla doesn't seem to factor this in their lease prices
My understanding is that I would be paying over $40,000 to lease a model S for 3 years (15 k miles a year). Seems high to me considering how much they sell their CPOs. But I don't know honestly I don't know the details (residual values, money factor) maybe it's a better deal that I think?
If you think about it this way, with 40k, if you spend $37.50 a day on renting a car everyday for 3 years, that's basically the same cost as leasing the Model S. If you decide to buy instead of lease, you're guaranteed a 50% resale value from Elon Musk (through the Tesla financing program). Tesla buying back their financed vehicles and using old leases in CPO and loaners helps keep the resale value of the Model S high. While I think the Model 3 will be a great car (and basically blows away the non-Tesla EVs on the market), the Model S will still be a very in-demand car and hold its value while Model 3 pre-order production catches up. You could buy the Model S, resell it back in 3 years and then apply that money towards a new Model 3.
One thing I omit to mention.. We would not buy the base model 3. We would likely get $10 to $15k worth of options. (leather, upgraded battery, potentially all wheel drive, and of course auto pilot). So I guess it would be more like a 335? I guess some disagree but I would consider that as a luxury car. I guess it's all relative.
Anyway definitely not ruling out the MS. There are definitely a few things that would make our life easier in the S as opposed to the 3. I think we are going to wait until the end of the year for what I consider a likely hardware upgrade of the autopilot of the S.
The thing about Teslas is that the options stack up pretty quickly. I'd guess that with 10-15k you'd have a nearly fully optioned Model 3.
I think one of the things that Tesla has done well is to keep adding features to cars to keep them desirable. At the same time, there's still a demand for older Model S' for people to take the plunge into EV who might not necessarily want or need Autopilot or Dual Motors. With major updates in features and tech, you have people wanting to change up to a newer model or upgrading their cars post-purchase. With the Software updates, they keep adding new features to keep the car feeling new.
I've had my MS for a little over a year now, and it's a different car from when I took delivery, thanks to the Over-the-Air updates.
In April 2015 - Take delivery at the Factory. A few days later, an OTA update added a higher top speed and a faster 0-60 time. Another
OTA added more charging locations to the GPS. A few months later, new UI and Autopilot 1.0. Auto-Park and Summon functionality added a few months after that. All within the span of 1 year.
I upgraded to Ludicrous after the first year, and the upgrade made the car feel new again. The battery has an 8-year warranty, and I suspect that by 2020 and once the Gigafactory is pumping out the batteries for the Model 3, we'll be able to replace the battery to a higher capacity one.