melindav
☰ 2018
did you also see the EM reply tweet asking if the $35k sized battery would beat the Bolt's 238mile range?
Elon Musk on Twitter
and thanks for putting together and maintaining your delivery estimator.
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Elon Musk on Twitter
and thanks for putting together and maintaining your delivery estimator.
Hi, @melindav. I saw that but the question was not about the $35K version. The person who asked the question said the following:
Quote: "Please tell me the Model 3 offers more range than the Chevy Bolt."
I think Elon was talking about the larger battery version when he answered. My prediction for the smaller battery hasn't changed. It will be 55 kWh because it matches the 215 mi range number they announced during the reveal event. They can't increase it because the price is fixed at $35K. My calculations show 219-226 mi EPA rated range for the Model 3 55.
To be honest, predicting the 75 kWh was a lot more difficult than predicting the 55 kWh. There was no statement from anybody at Tesla. There was an Electrek article that said 70 kWh. There were crazy estimates about 100 kWh by people who should know better. Many people were saying 80 or 85 kWh. I'm just happy I got the 75 kWh right. Because of the 215 mi range and the $35K fixed price and Tesla's statement that the base battery will be less than 60 kWh, the 55 kWh is not a difficult prediction. By the way, 50 is not possible either because it can't achieve 215 mi even though the Electrek article presented it as a possibility.
Quote: "Please tell me the Model 3 offers more range than the Chevy Bolt."
I think Elon was talking about the larger battery version when he answered. My prediction for the smaller battery hasn't changed. It will be 55 kWh because it matches the 215 mi range number they announced during the reveal event. They can't increase it because the price is fixed at $35K. My calculations show 219-226 mi EPA rated range for the Model 3 55.
To be honest, predicting the 75 kWh was a lot more difficult than predicting the 55 kWh. There was no statement from anybody at Tesla. There was an Electrek article that said 70 kWh. There were crazy estimates about 100 kWh by people who should know better. Many people were saying 80 or 85 kWh. I'm just happy I got the 75 kWh right. Because of the 215 mi range and the $35K fixed price and Tesla's statement that the base battery will be less than 60 kWh, the 55 kWh is not a difficult prediction. By the way, 50 is not possible either because it can't achieve 215 mi even though the Electrek article presented it as a possibility.
ummgood
Member
My guess is they will hit 300 miles of range on RWD with the 75kw battery. This allows the Model S 100D to still have a large margin over the model 3 but allows the model 3 to set a benchmark for other BEVs coming in 2020 to try to reach. It won't be easy. The D version of the model 3 will hit 310 miles.
melindav
☰ 2018
technically correct
, but I read it as the base as it's pretty obvious the 75 would be well and above the Bolt range.
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
technically correct
I read it the same way. I think we ALL know the bigger battery will blow away the Bolt, hence his comment of "Oh so little faith" regarding Model 3 range vs the Bolt....because the mystery is still there about whether the BASE model will beat the Bolt.
Told you all this calculator was completely wrong. Great try though. Just too many orders to do custom orders and mistakes to be made.
If you reverse the alg a little bit to less options to more then you might be correct. I'd expect 5 months delay between base mdl and d model. Why-not many want a base mdl 3.
If you reverse the alg a little bit to less options to more then you might be correct. I'd expect 5 months delay between base mdl and d model. Why-not many want a base mdl 3.
◘ Firstly, the estimator was correct until yesterday because it was based on Elon's statements. Elon said highly optioned cars would be delivered first. Click HERE to listen. Elon said that on 10th Feb 2016 during the Q4 2015 conference call. Obviously, something has changed between then and now. We don't know what. My guess is, they've found out that some parts they ordered from a supplier (like gearboxes) didn't pass the long-term durability tests, so they contracted a new supplier. Therefore those parts will be delayed. It's not a deliberate choice. Many existing Tesla owners won't get their D or P versions before some of the non-owners get their single motor version first. As a result, many Tesla owners or non-owners who waited in line on day one will miss the deadline for full tax credits. This was not the plan at all. The full tax credits will end either on Mar 31, 2018 or Jun 30, 2018. There is no third option. Either way, it will be too late for some D and P buyers.
◘ Secondly, you predicted that the Model 3 would come with 55, 70, 85 and 100 kWh batteries in your message HERE. Then you changed it to 65, 85, 95 kWh HERE. Also, in THIS topic, you said the Model 3 would have a HUD. Do you think your track record shows that you are good at research and predictions? Should we take you seriously or are you writing just for entertainment?
◘ Thirdly, my estimates are based on my own research which has served me well so far. Earlier this month, HERE I said the 60 would be discontinued soon and it was. HERE I said the largest battery would be 75 kWh and it was. HERE I said the Model 3 won't have a HUD or dashboard because Tesla thinks most of the driving will be done by Autopilot and Elon said the same thing on Twitter yesterday. HERE I predicted that Tesla would end free for life supercharging by the end of 2016. etc. etc. Explain to me again why I should ignore my own research.
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N5329K
Active Member
I have no idea if you're estimator will prove to be accurate, but it's a big and carefully thought-through piece of work. Thank you.
Robin
Most of us greatly appreciate the effort you have put into this estimator, regardless if it turns out to be correct or not.
As for @tsla007 I don't listen to much he says: Because he doesn't have a grasp on reality
Good job, I look forward to the updated version!
This different situation makes it interesting for reservation holders of 2 vehicles to spread the delivery; with probably about 9 months in between these deliveries.
It is - however - hard to predict what percentage of people will go for the RWD version now that it turns out to make waiting for it significantly longer.
The general preference was at 78% AWD and 21% RWD according to Teslarati: Early Insight into Tesla Model 3 Most Popular Configurations.
At that percentage, the 400.000 reservations translate to about 80.000 RWD units in total.
This is about the total production capacity of 2017.
Reasons I could see for this decision, is that there is a bottleneck in scaling up of the drivetrain manufacturing, or that this makes the robot assembly line more complicated than anticipated. Another could be, that the switch to the new batteries on the Model S and X needs to be made first, before bringing more performance to the Model 3. This switch will be made prior to 2018 according to EM.
But many people will switch their planned configuration to RWD because they don't want to wait another 9 months.
This is important for the delivery estimate.
Changing behaviour will differ between the different preference groups of employees and owners:
I presume that most of the employee reservations will prefer the cheaper and faster delivered RWD version. My guess would be that only less than 20% would prefer to wait.
But many of the owners will probably wait with at least 1 of their reservations till the AWD version. My guess would be that about 60% of these orders would wait.
And for the new customers, I think they prefer mostly not to wait; many who originally planned to go for AWD are probably reconsidering, I would think that at least 35% will change their mind, as they already hoped to get the Tesla M3 sooner instead of later to replace their ageing ICE car.
Model3Tracker.info might give a better insight than my wild guesses above.
All these assumptions would drastically change the configuration preferences as polled before. As the production time nears, other configuration effects on delivery will probably be added (if there are supply, design or manufacturing scaling problems related with a certain option).
This different situation makes it interesting for reservation holders of 2 vehicles to spread the delivery; with probably about 9 months in between these deliveries.
It is - however - hard to predict what percentage of people will go for the RWD version now that it turns out to make waiting for it significantly longer.
The general preference was at 78% AWD and 21% RWD according to Teslarati: Early Insight into Tesla Model 3 Most Popular Configurations.
At that percentage, the 400.000 reservations translate to about 80.000 RWD units in total.
This is about the total production capacity of 2017.
Reasons I could see for this decision, is that there is a bottleneck in scaling up of the drivetrain manufacturing, or that this makes the robot assembly line more complicated than anticipated. Another could be, that the switch to the new batteries on the Model S and X needs to be made first, before bringing more performance to the Model 3. This switch will be made prior to 2018 according to EM.
But many people will switch their planned configuration to RWD because they don't want to wait another 9 months.
This is important for the delivery estimate.
Changing behaviour will differ between the different preference groups of employees and owners:
I presume that most of the employee reservations will prefer the cheaper and faster delivered RWD version. My guess would be that only less than 20% would prefer to wait.
But many of the owners will probably wait with at least 1 of their reservations till the AWD version. My guess would be that about 60% of these orders would wait.
And for the new customers, I think they prefer mostly not to wait; many who originally planned to go for AWD are probably reconsidering, I would think that at least 35% will change their mind, as they already hoped to get the Tesla M3 sooner instead of later to replace their ageing ICE car.
Model3Tracker.info might give a better insight than my wild guesses above.
All these assumptions would drastically change the configuration preferences as polled before. As the production time nears, other configuration effects on delivery will probably be added (if there are supply, design or manufacturing scaling problems related with a certain option).
If you take the analogy of throwing a dart at the wall and see what sticks, it works for both prediction accuracy and accountability protection due to ambiguity with intention.
SureValla
Member
I greatly look forward to seeing how you update the calculator. I just found it today and love it!
Hi, everybody. The new version is up.
Tesla Model 3 Delivery Estimator
◘ I need to make some changes later on. Currently, cancellations are not calculated.
◘ I have used the model3tracker.info percentages for single-motor, dual motor and performance versions. The numbers are as follows:
Performance 17.40%
Dual motor 54.10%
Single motor 28.50%
Tesla Model 3 Delivery Estimator
◘ I need to make some changes later on. Currently, cancellations are not calculated.
◘ I have used the model3tracker.info percentages for single-motor, dual motor and performance versions. The numbers are as follows:
Performance 17.40%
Dual motor 54.10%
Single motor 28.50%
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Falkirk
Member
I don't even know what I'm going to do now until I see the configurator and how the options affect deliver for Canada. I did assume I would get AWD but I've never had that in a car so I can go with RWD if it's really months earlier. Thanks for trying Troy!
Bokonon
Title-customizing Member
Wow, given the number and nature of changes required, I wasn't expecting an update so soon!
Interestingly, as an east-coaster with a 3/31/16 reservation looking for a 75D, my delivery date didn't really change much -- it's still mid-March '18. (If anything, it moved up about 6-7 days...) Just going by the proportions you cited from model3tracker.info, I can see why that might be.
Yes, it's just an estimate based on a bunch of assumptions (as well-researched and modeled as they may be), and there are still a lot of unknowns concerning how production and deliveries will ramp-up, and how reservation-holders may change their plans in light of Elon's tweetstorm... but for me, the main takeaway lies in the delta of the estimator's output between its prior and current versions: for 75Ders, not much has changed. (The future version of myself who is filling out his 2018 taxes certainly hopes that this is the case!)
One question, admittedly coming from someone without a manufacturing background: does the model account for production line shutdowns / slowdowns that may occur as Tesla transitions from one configuration to another? For example, when they first bring AWD online, I would imagine that they would need to (1) pause to retool some RWD lines for AWD, and/or (2) start up new lines for AWD, which may not initially run at full speed for a few weeks. Looking at the "Data" spreadsheet, it appears that the model assumes a steady, linear production ramp-up over the course of the year. For estimated delivery dates further out in the future, any pause / slowdown won't matter much, but I'm wondering whether there might be a noticeable impact on early AWD and P deliveries? Especially since those deliveries will be most at risk for a reduced task credit?
As always, thanks for putting so much work into this tool -- even if the estimates turn out to be way off, it has most certainly kept my mind busy and entertained.
ummgood
Member
Weird I don't see any change in any of the battery/dual motor choices. They only difference I see is that a P75D would be earlier. End of Jan for the P75D and Feb 8th for all other configs. I was a non owner 11:15a reservation on the 31st in central Texas. Not sure why all configs have the same date but one.
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