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JSkrehot
Member
Hope your new calculator is correct, as I do not care about performance version. I was leaning toward dual motors but "assuming" dual motor would be ballpark $3,500+losing $7,500 when missing tax credit due to delay, I'll gladly take my M375 on January 1st 2018, $10,000 is WAY too much for AWD.
I wonder if the D and P production delays are related to independent production lines. At the factory, they have the older body line for Model S that uses fewer robots. Then they added the Model X body line that has more robots and it can also produce Model S cars. Looking at the production numbers of that second body line, I calculated that Tesla would need 3 body lines for Model 3 production. I wonder if body line #2 and #3 won't be online until January and April 2018 respectively. Maybe they thought they can program the first body line to produce all variants but that didn't work.
There are lots of spam users in other threads who are saying things like nothing has changed. I added many people to my ignore list. The level of crazy has gone up.
@ummgood,
You can find the dates on Data tab starting at cell G3. Let me know if you have questions about specific dates.
@sitter_k,
RWD ordered today does not jump ahead of an AWD reserved in-store because dual motor production starts before they can clear the backlog of all RWD cars. However, they will deliver about 70% of all RWD cars in the USA before an employee will get his dual motor.
@melindav, good point. We should monitor model3tracker to see if there are any changes.
@Bokonon, yes it's linear and no I didn't account for production line closures. I have integrated the 5,000/week and 10,000/week numbers and I picked the latest dates possible. For example, I picked last week of 2018 for 10,000/week even though Elon said at some point in 2018.
There are lots of spam users in other threads who are saying things like nothing has changed. I added many people to my ignore list. The level of crazy has gone up.
@ummgood,
You can find the dates on Data tab starting at cell G3. Let me know if you have questions about specific dates.
@sitter_k,
RWD ordered today does not jump ahead of an AWD reserved in-store because dual motor production starts before they can clear the backlog of all RWD cars. However, they will deliver about 70% of all RWD cars in the USA before an employee will get his dual motor.
@melindav, good point. We should monitor model3tracker to see if there are any changes.
@Bokonon, yes it's linear and no I didn't account for production line closures. I have integrated the 5,000/week and 10,000/week numbers and I picked the latest dates possible. For example, I picked last week of 2018 for 10,000/week even though Elon said at some point in 2018.
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Hi, @schonelucht. I think you are referring to THIS tweet. The answer is, I can't make the estimator more complicated because it is less automated than it was before. Currently, there are 11 regions and 3 drive unit variants. That's 33 combinations. If you look at the Data tab cells i72 and below, you see daily production configurations like "California/single motor" or "Canada/Dual motor" etc. If you keep scrolling down, there are 583 days, one row per day. I've stacked all of these by hand, one by one because the automated methods I came up with didn't have enough flexibility.
The previous version was fully automated because production for each region would start at a certain point in time and then continue forward uninterrupted. Now, that's not the case. When they make the dual motors, there will be lots of employees, Tesla owners, and line-waiters on the West Coast who don't want to lose the tax credits. They were promised priority but they didn't get it. Now, after much delay, the dual motor is finally here and I assumed Tesla would prioritize them at least from this point onward.
By the time they start making the dual motors, they will have already delivered around 75% of all single motor USA deliveries even to those who ordered a week after online orders opened. It makes sense to stop the single motor for a while. The same thing happens when they start performance production. These kind changes made automation too difficult, at least for now. Therefore ideas that would complicate the manual work will have to wait.
The previous version was fully automated because production for each region would start at a certain point in time and then continue forward uninterrupted. Now, that's not the case. When they make the dual motors, there will be lots of employees, Tesla owners, and line-waiters on the West Coast who don't want to lose the tax credits. They were promised priority but they didn't get it. Now, after much delay, the dual motor is finally here and I assumed Tesla would prioritize them at least from this point onward.
By the time they start making the dual motors, they will have already delivered around 75% of all single motor USA deliveries even to those who ordered a week after online orders opened. It makes sense to stop the single motor for a while. The same thing happens when they start performance production. These kind changes made automation too difficult, at least for now. Therefore ideas that would complicate the manual work will have to wait.
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SureValla
Member
I love how you are trying to reverse engineer the model III program schedule based on publicly available data. At what point do you just go full MS project haha? thanks again. Elon should take notice and hire you to give estimates on when products will be available. Elon Time would start to be reliable. You'd be amazing with actual data.
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
According to the new Estimator, the difference in potential delivery dates for a P75D for me, whether I'm a non-owner (currently), or if I purchase a Tesla to "jump the line" is.....
one day.
Umm..... lol
one day.
Umm..... lol
melindav
☰ 2018
The big impact is on the west coast. By the time things work there way east, the wait isn't as much an issue
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
I've noticed that. If I want a RWD on the East Coast, even as a non-owner, I'd have it before the end of this year. (*according to the Estimator)
SureValla
Member
The estimator works off of the model3info data where nearly 80% of the people have selected AWD. I'm guessing that will drop when some hear they can "jump" the line by dropping AWD. Also keep in mind the dataset is not necessarily indicative of the overall population of reservations. Its possible those that those who entered info are much more likely than the overall population to choose AWD.
Check back in a few weeks to see if its still 80%. I'm guessing you delta delievery date will change by then as well
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
Oh, I know, I've been lurking as a non-owner long enough to take all delivery theories with an entire shaker of salt.......however, I am now considering a 70 or 75D CPO Model S.......
ummgood
Member
Personally for me if I can get a 'D' in the same amount of time as a RWD I'll go for the 'D' just because I want the efficiency and performance it brings. If I can't get it in the same amount of time then I'll move to the RWD model. I am more concerned about how many amenities will be in the interior based on latest tweets I don't have high hopes.
Anyway according to the estimator I am basically looking at a week spread for any configuration I pick being a early line waiter in central time zone but non-owner.
Anyway according to the estimator I am basically looking at a week spread for any configuration I pick being a early line waiter in central time zone but non-owner.
ummgood
Member
I think I actually had a problem because the estimator wasn't working on my phone last night. I tried it on an actual computer today and it is way different. On my phone using the google sheets app I was getting the following:
55/75/55D/75D: Feb 8th, 2018
P75D: Feb 15th, 2018
This morning on my computer I got:
55/75: Nov 8th, 2017
55D/75D: Feb 22nd, 2018
P75D: May 5th, 2018
I am a Central time/non-owner/11:15am line waiter.
Today's results are closer to what I was expecting. I am not sure what I'll do. The reasonable part of me says wait until the D comes out and get that in Feb which is when I was originally hoping to get my car. The unreasonable part wants the car NOW NOW NOW. I'll have to see where I am financially at the end of this year. I have to get my wife's van paid off pronto.
I think this will push my admittedly optimistic delivery estimate of "sometime before the end of this year" to about a year from now. My logic is that, as a WAG, I'm about number 50,000 in the global queue. Get rid of 40% of them as they are not in North America, add in another 20% for owners that get moved in front of me - I think that puts me at about 40,000.
Assuming an easy 25% demand for RWD (because math is hard) there will be 10K of those 40K built before they start letting people behind me build their RWD cars. So the only people I need to worry about when they start building AWD are the other 30K that were already in front of me. If Tesla hits their 5K per week goal by the end of the year that's only 6 weeks of AWD production before I can get mine. Depending on how things go I have a decent shot still at the full credit.
As a bonus, I think that will also increase the chances of getting to sit in, if not actually drive, a demo model before I need to confirm.
Assuming an easy 25% demand for RWD (because math is hard) there will be 10K of those 40K built before they start letting people behind me build their RWD cars. So the only people I need to worry about when they start building AWD are the other 30K that were already in front of me. If Tesla hits their 5K per week goal by the end of the year that's only 6 weeks of AWD production before I can get mine. Depending on how things go I have a decent shot still at the full credit.
As a bonus, I think that will also increase the chances of getting to sit in, if not actually drive, a demo model before I need to confirm.
No, they will only be producing for 6 months before AWDs are on the assembly line. They have more than 6 production months of RWD cars to make. And because the 1st month or so is likely to be Tesla employees, and the next month or 3 after that are likely to be S/X owners who reserved a model 3, this really is small news compared to his other tweets in my eyes. It's really more like a 2 month wait for AWD.
ummgood
Member
2 month maybe for employees waiting for for dual motor. Then come the previous owners and then come the line waiters who are not owners.
Foxhound199
Member
Wow, this bumped me up way more than I expected. I'm going to have to temper the optimism here. Previously, I thought it would be naive to expect to receive my car before Christmas. Now it's telling me I should get it well before Halloween.
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