There is 50% chance the $7,500 federal tax credits will drop to $3,750 on 31st March 2018 and 50% chance it will happen on 30th June 2018. There is no third option. In early January 2018, they will have delivered 52% of RWD California orders and 0% of AWD orders. At that time, AWD buyers, including day 1 reservation holders, will be eager to get their car soon to qualify for the full federal tax credits. I don't see why it would make things better in terms of customer happiness to try to reach 60%, 70%, 80% delivery on the RWD list while the AWD list has twice the number of people and is close to 0%. Elon tweeted here about increasing customer happiness. I think many AWD buyers will be less than impressed if they waited in line but still missed the $7,500 while RWD buyers who reserved much later get their car in time.
I will watch the trends and see if more people are giving up on P or D versions to maximize the federal tax credits. If the recent rumors by Trev's source (link) are true, the tax credits will definitely drop to $3,750 after 31st March 2018.
I will watch the trends and see if more people are giving up on P or D versions to maximize the federal tax credits. If the recent rumors by Trev's source (link) are true, the tax credits will definitely drop to $3,750 after 31st March 2018.