Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[ummgood]

The 18650 contract with Panasonic doesn't run out until the end of the year, I believe.

Oh ok that makes sense. I am not sure of the specifics of their contract but you would have thought they could have had that contract modified given that they gave Panasonic the ability to move into the gigafactory assuming it transitioned the business over to the 2170 that Panasonic was producing.

 

[Model 3]

Oh ok that makes sense. I am not sure of the specifics of their contract but you would have thought they could have had that contract modified given that they gave Panasonic the ability to move into the gigafactory assuming it transitioned the business over to the 2170 that Panasonic was producing.

... on the other side you could say that it may have been one of Panasonic's demands before they went fully in on the GF-I that Tesla would continue to buy the old cells from Panasonic Asia until Panasonic had time to switch their production over to the new cells there...

For a long time I was thinking that they would continue to get the old cells for the Energy business, but that was the first to use the new cells for GF-I

 

[Troy]

Hi. I have just finished watching the 2017 shareholder meeting live here. Elon said AWD at the end of this year or early next year. We use early next year. So, no changes needed there. He also said somebody ordering today would get their car at the end of next year. I immediately went to the Estimator to check what it shows and it showed 29 Dec 2018. So, no changes needed there either.

Elon said the configurator will have color and wheel selection and that's it. I'm not sure what that means for the battery selection. Are they going to have only the Model 3 75 initially or is it going to be only Model 3 55 for a while? It would make more sense to start with the 75 because then people who were planning to buy the 55, might switch to the 75 to get their car sooner. However, if Gigafactory production ramp up is not happening fast enough, then it would make sense to start with the 55. Potentially, this could also allow the S and X to switch to 2170 cells sooner rather than later. We have to wait for more information on this.

 

[FlatSix911]

Hi. I have just finished watching the 2017 shareholder meeting live here. Elon said AWD at the end of this year or early next year. We use early next year. So, no changes needed there. He also said somebody ordering today would get their car at the end of next year. I immediately went to the Estimator to check what it shows and it showed 29 Dec 2018. So, no changes needed there either.

Elon said the configurator will have color and wheel selection and that's it. I'm not sure what that means for the battery selection. Are they going to have only the Model 3 75 initially or is it going to be only Model 3 55 for a while? It would make more sense to start with the 75 because then people who were planning to buy the 55, might switch to the 75 to get their car sooner. However, if Gigafactory production ramp up is not happening fast enough, then it would make sense to start with the 55. Potentially, this could also allow the S and X to switch to 2170 cells sooner rather than later. We have to wait for more information on this.

Good post ... I would add that the initial Model 3 will probably be the 55 kWh due to 2170 battery ramp and the low cost denominator.

 

[SureValla]

Good post ... I would add that the initial Model 3 will probably be the 55 kWh due to 2170 battery ramp and the low cost denominator.

I disagree I think it will be 75 so they can charge more and recoup tooling costs faster.

 

[mrkymarc]

So unless Elon had another red wine and ambien induced tweetstorm in the next few weeks, seems like the estimator will be locked in now until the reveal and configurator opening. It's unfortunate that there is more uncertainty now than earlier in some ways (which configs will be the initial ones) and it may make the estimator irrelevant upon configurator release.

@Troy Do you think it will be possible/useful to update it after release, or will just relying on the dates for delayed configs be enough? I'd think it'd still be worth it after that, but I don't have to do the spreadsheet work

 

[ModelNforNerd]

@Troy Do you think it will be possible/useful to update it after release, or will just relying on the dates for delayed configs be enough? I'd think it'd still be worth it after that, but I don't have to do the spreadsheet work

If the configurator shows potential availability dates for different options, that will help immensely in fine tuning the delivery estimator.

All we can really do is wait now....or hope for a good leak.

 

[SureValla]

If the configurator shows potential availability dates for different options, that will help immensely in fine tuning the delivery estimator.

All we can really do is wait now....or hope for a good leak.

I hope in addition to dates additional options will be available they will also quote prices for them. I don't want to wait for AWD if it costs 20k more (hyperbole).

 

[Troy]

Hi. At 31:45 here, Elon said he expects the configurator to go live towards the end of next month when they deliver the first production Model 3. So, that's about 7 weeks from now. Of course, it is possible that we might find out more about this before then. Elon might tweet something or there might be credible leaks. In any case, I will update the Estimator when there is new information. Right now the way it works is, it assumes both the 55 and 75 will be available at launch.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

jeez.......at this point, the difference between me getting a 75 RWD and a 75D is 2 months.


But if i can wait THAT long.....the difference between a 75D and a P75D is only 5 more weeks.

HHHmmmmmm.....

 

[Troy]

Hi, everybody. Earlier I said I was going to watch the model3tracker survey data to see if more people are switching to RWD. It turns out, that's exactly what's happening. It used to show 28.5% for RWD. Now it shows 32.6%. So, based on this, I have just updated the calculations. However, for most D and P reservation holders, this doesn't change anything. Don't be surprised if you see the exact same date as before. This is normal. More people selecting RWD does not postpone AWD production start date. It mostly affects things within the RWD group, especially people who want RWD and reserved between 2 Apr 2016, 10 am Pacific time and 5 Apr 2016, 7 am Pacific time.

Source: https://model3tracker.info/report_config_popularity.php (requires a free account to see the data)

 

[JSkrehot]

Hi, everybody. Earlier I said I was going to watch the model3tracker survey data to see if more people are switching to RWD. It turns out, that's exactly what's happening. It used to show 28.5% for RWD. Now it shows 32.6%. So, based on this, I have just updated the calculations. However, for most D and P reservation holders, this doesn't change anything. Don't be surprised if you see the exact same date as before. This is normal. More people selecting RWD does not postpone AWD production start date. It mostly affects things within the RWD group, especially people who want RWD and reserved between 2 Apr 2016, 10 am Pacific time and 5 Apr 2016, 7 am Pacific time.

Source: https://model3tracker.info/report_config_popularity.php (requires a free account to see the data)

Your calculations pushed my from Dec 31 2017, to June 16 2018. This estimator is cool and all, I just don't see it being super accurate. I believe West to East Coast, or at least California then working East is going to have much more of a factor than is being estimated.

 

[FalseProfit]

Yikes. I only just made my reservation last month, but am pretty sure that I won't have to wait until Feb 2019 for the car. I'm figuring ~12 months sooner. Hope that's not a foolish estimate. Funny that this tool says I'll get the P version sooner.

Anyway, here's to hoping Tesla will prioritize orders made in the USA to allow for the most tax credits to be had. Half the credit I could live with -- any less and it isn't worth it for me.

Cool tool to play around with though.

 

[melindav]

Yikes. I only just made my reservation last month, but am pretty sure that I won't have to wait until Feb 2019 for the car. I'm figuring ~12 months sooner. Hope that's not a foolish estimate. Funny that this tool says I'll get the P version sooner.

Anyway, here's to hoping Tesla will prioritize orders made in the USA to allow for the most tax credits to be had. Half the credit I could live with -- any less and it isn't worth it for me.

Cool tool to play around with though.

Tesla has been saying for some time now that new reservations would be end of 2018+. So if you reserved last month and expect delivery early 2018, I think you are being overly optimistic.

 

[Troy]

Hi, @JSkrehot. There is no error. A small group of RWD buyers who were between 52% and 60% on the reservation queue got pushed from December 2017 to June 2018 after this latest update. The reason is that after AWD production starts, I don't expect any RWD production for at least 5 months because that would be the fair thing to do. On 7 January 2018, the situation will look like this:

• No P cars delivered in California.
• No D cars delivered in California.
• RWD cars delivered to all buyers in California who are in the first 52% of the reservation queue.

It is only fair that they should stop RWD production completely until AWD production reaches the same levels. I expect something similar to happen when Performance production starts. Around 24 March 2018, the situation will look like this:

• No P cars delivered in California.
• D cars delivered to all buyers in California who are in the first 33% of the reservation queue.
• RWD cars delivered to all buyers in California who are in the first 52% of the reservation queue.

Again I assumed Tesla would do the right thing and stop all RWD and D production until P production catches up to D production levels.

As for delays between regions, I used these data points when deciding on those:

• Model X data
• EV registration numbers in each region
• Tesla's service center numbers in each region
• Elon's tweets about EU and left-hand drive production start dates.

 

[tpatana]

Hi, @JSkrehot.It is only fair that they should stop RWD production completely until AWD production reaches to the same levels. I expect something similar to happen when Performance production starts. Around 24 March 2018, the situation will look like this

I can't believe they'd stop the RWD, although for sure for some amount of time they'll prioritize AWD models, maybe like 80/20 ratio or something.

 

[FalseProfit]

Tesla has been saying for some time now that new reservations would be end of 2018+. So if you reserved last month and expect delivery early 2018, I think you are being overly optimistic.

Mid 2018+, yes. Figuring that includes international orders. Hoping that the focus will be on domestic orders, I was optimistic for late Q1/mid Q2 delivery.

At the very least, I'm confident that the tool's estimate is conservative. Though I have little to base this confidence off of.

 

[Garlan Garner]

My delivery date = Too far away.

 

[JSkrehot]

Hi, @JSkrehot. There is no error. A small group of RWD buyers who were between 52% and 60% on the reservation queue got pushed from December 2017 to June 2018 after this latest update. The reason is that after AWD production starts, I don't expect any RWD production for at least 5 months because that would be the fair thing to do. On 7 January 2018, the situation will look like this:

• No P cars delivered in California.
• No D cars delivered in California.
• RWD cars delivered to all buyers in California who are in the first 52% of the reservation queue.

It is only fair that they should stop RWD production completely until AWD production reaches the same levels. I expect something similar to happen when Performance production starts. Around 24 March 2018, the situation will look like this:

• No P cars delivered in California.
• D cars delivered to all buyers in California who are in the first 33% of the reservation queue.
• RWD cars delivered to all buyers in California who are in the first 52% of the reservation queue.

Again I assumed Tesla would do the right thing and stop all RWD and D production until P production catches up to D production levels.

As for delays between regions, I used these data points when deciding on those:

• Model X data
• EV registration numbers in each region
• Tesla's service center numbers in each region
• Elon's tweets about EU and left-hand drive production start dates.

I will first say, your estimator page, awesome. Making something like that it light years over my head. I am not a computer person. However, seeing your comments of stopping RWD production "because that would be the fair thing to do," I know that this estimator is HUGELY speculative. Tesla cares none about fair. Tesla took money for 1st gen looking Model S with public not knowing about refreshed face that would be avail the following week. Much of the same with 90 kWh battery buyers who then had the 100 kWh battery available after they could not change their order. Again, the estimator is very well done but extremely speculative. I, as a anxious Model 3 reservation holder, who did not know anything about the Model 3 until the morning of April 2 and immediately fell in love, hope you are very wrong in your estimations. I am so anxious that I drove 45 min to their factory the other day and sat another 45 minutes at their test track in the hopes of seeing a Model 3 in person. I was not disappointed.

 

[shrspeedblade]

I am so anxious that I drove 45 min to their factory the other day and sat another 45 minutes at their test track in the hopes of seeing a Model 3 in person. I was not disappointed.

As someone who lives in the North Bay I've thought about doing this, but it's over 3 hours round trip so I'm hesitant unless I'm reasonably assured of seeing one. Did you go to the back side of the factory to watch from the other side of the railroad tracks I assume? How many did you see? Do tell!