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Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

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Edit: Updated my times to 24 hour format vs AM/PM.

Can someone confirm exactly what time reservations online went live on 3/31. I was thinking 21:30 Central, 19:30 Pacific. I was hitting enter and got in quickly, but the confirmation email didn't come until the next day, so it doesn't have an exact timestamp of my reservation. I've slept too many nights since to remember for sure - but need confirmation on the time the online reservations started on 3/31.

Thanks,

My recollection was that online registration started at 19:30 PT. My own entry was about 19:35.

edit; Google finds this: Tesla Model 3 preorders will begin at 7:30PM PT, an hour earlier than planned

edit2: I remember this because I postponed leaving work in order to place my order.

I actually tried at 7:25 pm PST and even though it was 5 minutes early, I got in:)

The online reservations opened at 19:08 PST. If I remember right someone on Reddit posted the URL that they saw being used in the store for reservations.
 
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The online reservations opened at 19:08 PST. If I remember right someone on Reddit posted the URL that they saw being used in the store for reservations.
I guess only true time will tell over the next few monthis, if Tesla truly takes them first in, first out, what time I was able to reserve. I remember waiting on the reveal and hitting enter, but don't recall exactly when I got in.

I know the estimator is being reworked and can only truly get better as we get more data points, but if they truly make it up to 2,500 and then 5,000 a week soon, a difference of 10 to 15 minutes doesn't change but maybe a week or so.
 
If you want a Model 3 in 3 weeks, just purchase a Model S/X today :cool:
You can get a Tesla Model 3 in weeks if you are a Tesla owner in the US

Tesla sent out a new batch of invitations to configure the Model 3 this week, but it’s still only to current Tesla owners in the US.
Interestingly, even owners who have just recently placed a new reservation can get the invitation and configure the vehicle for a delivery in ‘about 4 weeks’ – just like some Model S or Model X vehicles. We have received several reports from Tesla owners this week who hadn’t reserved the Model 3 over the last two years, but they decided to place a reservation this month and they already received an invite to configure.


Tesla has always stated that current owners of Model S, Model X, or Roadster vehicles have priority in the Model 3 reservation backlog, but the extent of the priority is greater than most people thought. As we previously reported, we learned that if you have owned more than one Tesla vehicle, you get priority on more than one Model 3 reservation. Now it sounds like the priority also extends to new reservations still being placed to this day. It really goes to show that Tesla wasn’t kidding when it said that current owners are first in line for the Model 3. If anything, it should be a good indicator that Tesla is about to open configurations for non-owners soon since I can’t imagine that Tesla is getting new reservations from owners in the US at a high enough rate not to have to invite non-owners.

Unless Tesla decides to first bring new options to production, like the white interior or the dual motor all-wheel powertrain, which should result in more Tesla owners placing orders for the Model 3. It’s not clear when the former is coming, though a new Model 3 with manufacturer plates and a white interior was recently spotted, but the latter is not expected until ‘mid-2018’.

The expansion in Canada is also not expected until ‘mid-2018’, which I think is a good sign that Tesla will have to open the configurator to non-owners soon if they want enough orders when they reach higher production rates. I certainly hope they do since non-owners have been waiting just as long as everybody else and they also placed a $1,000 deposit just like everyone. I understand that Tesla wanted to reward its early adopters, but the Model 3 is supposed to bring many new owners in the ‘Tesla family’ and they need to deliver them to non-owners to do that.
 
Except that you are directly comparing the price of a Model 3 plus $6K+ in upgrades and $4500 in taxes to a Nissan Leaf with none of those things (Leaf is $29,990 before any upgrades or taxes). Let's compare apples to apples.

Huh? I wasn’t comparing anything to a Leaf. Someone asked how a model 3 would be $50K. I gave an example of how it becomes $50,000 without even having all of the options added. Maybe I missed something in the conversation.
 
I guess only true time will tell over the next few monthis, if Tesla truly takes them first in, first out, what time I was able to reserve. I remember waiting on the reveal and hitting enter, but don't recall exactly when I got in.

I know the estimator is being reworked and can only truly get better as we get more data points, but if they truly make it up to 2,500 and then 5,000 a week soon, a difference of 10 to 15 minutes doesn't change but maybe a week or so.

Maybe the wrong place to post but I am a current MS owner and hold reservation number RN109010558 assigned about July of 2017 for a M3. My delivery estimator shows late 2018 delivery. Today, my design window opened. I live (obviously looking at the license)in Ohio.
Does this info help anyone? Just read if I start now, delivery will be in 3-6 weeks. Guess I'll save my place as I would prefer the LR battery and dual motor config.
 
Maybe the wrong place to post but I am a current MS owner and hold reservation number RN109010558 assigned about July of 2017 for a M3. My delivery estimator shows late 2018 delivery. Today, my design window opened. I live (obviously looking at the license)in Ohio.
Does this info help anyone? Just read if I start now, delivery will be in 3-6 weeks. Guess I'll save my place as I would prefer the LR battery and dual motor config.
I think most Tesla owner holding off from buying the M3 for various reasons and since Tesla only mfg 1st production version, they will continue moving down the reservation list. My guess soon non-owner will be able to get their M3
 
The new version is up. This is a completely new version that works differently. SR and SRD have been added. Also, you can now select two trim levels.

Model 3 Delivery Estimator 2.0
Thanks - very cool - pulls me back in to an config date of the second or third week of April. Old estimator had me pushed out in to June. M3 LR, PUP, first Prod, signed up online 9:30 Central. The new estimator looks like it asks for everything in my time zone and must make calculations for us now. Thanks for working on and maintaining this beast.
 
My estimated delivery date went from May 15th to April 5th. My delivery range from Tesla is now March to May after being moved from Nov to January.
Non owner, reserved in store on 3/31/16 at 10:15am, Dedham Ma store. Model 3 LR.
Won't wait for AWD but may delay some just so Tesla can continue to work thru issues and improve the software.
 
Well Troy’s update to the 2.0 estimator puts me back into the end of July for delivery so I’m optimistic again I’ll be getting a 3! I gotta say this whole ramp up and not knowing for sure when the tax credit will be over is anxiety inducing for us that are depending on it. Seeing everyone say how awesome their 3 is just makes me want one more too.

I’m in Nj, non owner, reserved online 4/4 at 11:30pm. Looking to get LR and PUP
 
The new version is up. This is a completely new version that works differently. SR and SRD have been added. Also, you can now select two trim levels.

Model 3 Delivery Estimator 2.0

Troy, I'm not sure of your personal life, but regardless of what Teslas (if any) you own, Tesla owes you a Model 3 for free just for maintaining all of this! You have made this wait so much more fun, and I think I speak for everyone when I say how much I appreciate your efforts. Keep up the awesome work!
 
Here's to hoping the 2.0 version of the delivery estimator is spot on. Spreadsheet reports for me a 3 LR delivery of 5/3/18, 3 LRD at 8/20/18 and 80% likely chance of full $7500 tax credit until 9/30/18. I was really looking at getting the dual-motor and if the estimator is accurate, I might hold off ordering my car until its available.
 
I like the new update as well and I have moved up.

Reserved 12/2/16, Mountain, Non-Owner.

Tesla:
First Production - Jul - Sep 2018
AWD - Late 2018

Troy:
LR - 10/8/18
LRD - 12/8/18

I'm good with this and much closer than before (was showing several months later for both). Let's hope this holds true.

Thanks @Troy
 
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