Nope, we are still stuck on LR. @Troy is doing a phenomenal job of estimating deliveries, so I have to defer to him for that question. Not sure what his model is, but it seems pretty accurate.Thanks @whatthe2 and @streetskooler
Another newbie question. Has the Perfomance model actually been launched? All I see is a tweet from Elon re: middle of 2018. But this was well before all the current delays.
If not launched, how are we estimating delivery dates for this version?
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No hasn’t launched and AFAIK it hasn’t been officially announced. People are speculating 2019 I think for the performance packageThanks @whatthe2 and @streetskooler
Another newbie question. Has the Perfomance model actually been launched? All I see is a tweet from Elon re: middle of 2018. But this was well before all the current delays.
If not launched, how are we estimating delivery dates for this version?
GDNTX
Member
Also think it's great work and - Thanks Troy. But I figure Tesla doesn't want to give him a M3, they also would probably rather he maybe go away ! lol. They probably get calls from people asking when they are going to get to configure because Troy says it's time. I'm sure it has caused them a few extra calls.
The dates for Canadian delivery seem to be off significantly than the Tesla estimates. Is some data off in the spreadsheet 2.0?
For example, day 1 in store reservation in Canada gets the SRD in Feb 2019 whereas same day UK reservation is April 2019.
Cintoman
Member
Wow...you were probably just a little ahead of me in that line. I reserved on 3/31/16 in the Dedham store at 10:43am. My First Production is now March - May 2018. I'm waiting for SR, AWD and the white interior.
--Cintoman
There are actually 3 tweets. Of course, the timeline has changed but in terms of confirming that they will make a performance version, these tweets are pretty convincing. Tesla doesn't want to talk about the performance version right now because they want to sell more Model S cars. I guess the anti-selling will continue until they reach 5,000/week Model 3 production at the end of Q2 2018.
Elon confirms performance with ludicrous (tweeted on 29 Apr 2016) Twitter
Performance version mid-2018 (tweeted on 24 Mar 2017) Twitter
Model 3 Performance in mid-2018 (tweeted on 29 Jul 2017) Twitter
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New version of the estimator now puts me as getting a config invite next week (non-owner, line waiter, reservation placed within the first 5 minutes of the Tesla store opening). If this is accurate, and I really really hope it is, this is quite exciting!
@Troy Got it ... but still curious how you are estimating delivery dates in the absence of cars being manufactured.
Also, what changed in the new version of the estimator? Not complaining as the dates have moved up to match Tesla's
Thanks for the phenomenal effort.
I hope that they do start with non-owners next week, but I'm not so optimistic. Plus, I bet that California non-owners get first dibs. The $1k delivery fee becomes pure profit on those cars picked up on Fremont. OTOH, it costs the company real money to ship a truck load to NJ. (Not to mention, that assuming East Coast line waiters get first cars due to the sun, it probably not realistic unless I missed an Elon tweet!)
Foxhound199
Member
True, but it also seems to be conventional wisdom around here that non-owners are going to require significantly more hand-holding through the delivery process. While the argument is a bit dubious to me, I can definitely see 1st time owners having a few more questions at delivery, and can easily see delivery becoming the rate limiting step. If that's the case, Tesla may not have the luxury of concentrating all their sales in California due to the need to better utilize their entire delivery center network. Initially, I had assumed they would manage this by beginning California non-owner deliveries at the same time as owner deliveries in the rest of the country. Since it really seems like they are trying to get every owner handled before non-owner deliveries start, it would be a logistical nightmare to have a whole country of underutilized delivery centers and one state that is completely slammed.
SR, SRD, LRD, and P have not entered production yet. The P is not different than the other versions that have not entered production yet. This is what we know: On 29 July 2017, Elon said Mid-2018 for the Performance version (source). At that time, Tesla.com's earliest estimates looked like this:
- Nov 2017 - Jan 2018, First production
- Jan 2018 - Mar 2018, Short range
- Jul 2018 - Sep 2018, AWD
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geoffreak
Driving My Model 3
Nice work on the revamp. My estimate is now comparable to what I see on the sheet. The updated first production logic seems to match with my assumptions:
Two estimates in the beginning of two subsequent first production windows should be approximately one month apart.
In-store reservation delivery estimates should barely shift between one hour and the next for first production.
Invites should be coming soon for non-owners
Location in US shouldn't matter for timing
Two estimates in the beginning of two subsequent first production windows should be approximately one month apart.- This matches the one month difference in delivery windows.
In-store reservation delivery estimates should barely shift between one hour and the next for first production.- The reservation pace was limited to about 50-75 people an hour per store, and many stores didn't even have that level of traffic.
- Many of the known in-store reservations are outside the US.
- Most in-store reservations are owners who already got their invite or are not getting first production.
Invites should be coming soon for non-owners- All owners have their invites, so this is pretty obvious.
Location in US shouldn't matter for timing- Tesla is bound by delivery centers in many locations, especially California, so deliveries should be fairly spread out. They aren't going to let a bunch of delivery centers go idle to keep things in sync with reservation timing.
- There has been no evidence that the "California first then spreading east" approach will continue with each wave. Maybe they'll do this when they have new configurations, but I can't see any reason why they'd do this for a config they already have had on the road for a while due to the delivery centers.
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If I'm reading the cards right, I'd wager while @Troy has worked admirably, he may be finding it as challenging as Tesla to figure out how to deliver to their stated estimates. This may be a good indication of the surmounting task ahead of Tesla.
Maybe it's just not possible to fit all the deliverables in to the schedule with the ramp occuring slower than desired, and we'll see everyone pushed out a time or two more.
Also, what changed in the new version of the estimator? Not complaining as the dates have moved up to match Tesla's
Too many things have changed. If you open the Data tab, most things you see here are new. In the past, I would allocate each day's production to a specific region and trim combination. It used to look like this:
In this screenshot, it shows that the first shift on 18 Feb 2018 was for Eastern states, single motor cars. 53 cars were produced during this shift bringing the total production since inception to 8386 units. At the end of this shift, single motor cars for Eastern states would reach 2.98% completion rate. Similarly, it shows 3.32% completion rate for Central states and 7.31% for California.
This was very precise similar to how a picture would be precise if you colored each pixel by hand. Making changes would require too much work. For example, Tesla would change their production targets or change the order of SR and AWD and I would have to copy and paste hundreds of cells in the Region and Drive unit columns.
The new version is completely different. Here is how it looks like:
Now I allocate production percentages to each region and trim level for a specific time period. For example, here you see that 92.7% of production from 17 May 2018 to 1 July is 2018 is allocated to Model 3 LR in the US. At the end of this period, on 1 July 2018, US Model 3 LR will reach 54.2% completion rate. Of course, this is much easier for me to adjust. Making it all work was a little tricky.
@Kenypowa, @sitter_k,
I have updated the Canada estimates.
Yes, spreading out deliveries over different time zones make sense as Fremont (and MDR) can only deliver so many in a day. But what doesn't make sense to me is assuming deliveries start in the Eastern Time Zone.
I think Tesla will try to normalize time zones for US in store reservations. I reserved at 10:05 AM Eastern on 3/31. Assuming someone on the West coast also reserved in store at say at 10:01 AM Pacific I believe Tesla will see these reservations having occurred within minutes of each other as opposed to hours due to the time zone difference. In all fairness someone on the West coast that reserved at 10:01 AM Pacific should receive their config invite before someone like me who reserved 5 minutes after the store opened on the East coast. I’m pretty sure this is similar to how Troy is estimating things as well.
- Tesla is bound by delivery centers in many locations, especially California, so deliveries should be fairly spread out. They aren't going to let a bunch of delivery centers go idle to keep things in sync with reservation timing.
- There has been no evidence that the "California first then spreading east" approach will continue with each wave. Maybe they'll do this when they have new configurations, but I can't see any reason why they'd do this for a config they already have had on the road for a while due to the delivery centers.
Completely agree. I’ve said this in several threads, as Tesla continues to ramp up production they won’t be able to limit themselves to delivering to just CA or the West coast. They will need to utilize all delivery channels in order to keep up with production. The first batch of owner config invites went to people in CA because they wanted the cars closer to Fremont to take care of any issues that may be directly related to their production line and also they were producing far fewer cars a week than they are now.
I agree. This is actually a feature that I have automated in version 2.0 of the spreadsheet estimator. If you reserved at 10 am on the 31st, your time zone is irrelevant in terms of production date. You will have the same production date whether you were first in line on the West Coast or East Coast. The normalization only happens if you select in-store and 31st March 2016 and it normalizes only the production date but the delivery date still depends on your location within the US.
Yes. In fact, deliveries are happening right now everywhere in the US. Here is a link to a filtered view of the invites spreadsheet that shows only entries with a scheduled delivery date.
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